To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$  $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$  Week 09 Earnings Supercycle: AI Infrastructure Surge, Quantum Power Plays, Tariff Crosscurrents 🔥📊⚡

Week 09 earnings concentration sits at the intersection of AI infrastructure scaling, cloud efficiency discipline, quantum compute progress, crypto mining economics, and consumer resilience under tariff pressure. This is one of the densest cross-asset signal weeks of the quarter.

Core Reports• $NVDA $CRM $SNOW $ZM $HIMS $CAVA $IONQ $SMR $LOW $HPQ $BIDU• Extensions: $HD $DPZ $CRWV $TTD $WDAY $RKLB $CIFR $DELL $MELI

Macro Catalysts This Week

• Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), tests tariff sensitivity across discretionary demand. Sub-100 readings could compress multiples for $HD $LOW $CAVA $DPZ

• Jobless Claims (Thursday), labour tightness feeds directly into software hiring costs ($CRM $SNOW $WDAY) and mining operations ($CIFR $CRWV)

• PPI Inflation (Friday), input cost escalation from Trump tariff policy or Iran supply risk could pressure margins across hardware ($DELL $HPQ) and international exposure ($BIDU $MELI)

• Geopolitical layer, export controls on advanced chips to China elevate regulatory premiums for $NVDA $IONQ. Power scarcity narratives continue to favour nuclear and advanced energy exposure such as $SMR

Sector Breakdowns

AI / Cloud ($NVDA $CRM $TTD $SNOW $WDAY $ZM)

• Software valuations at 10 to 15x forward sales require continued efficiency validation• $SNOW inference monetisation could offset compute costs if margins sustain above 30%

• $CRM post-acquisition integration remains central to maintaining 20%+ growth durability• Relief scenario depends on hyperscaler capex re-acceleration towards approximately $600B annually, easing depreciation drag across the stack

Health / Consumer ($HIMS $CAVA $DPZ $HD $LOW)

• $HIMS defending $15 technical support remains critical with subscriber CAGR near 50%. A breach exposes structural downside towards $10 under regulatory risk compounding

• Housing sensitivity dominates the retail cluster. $LOW operating margins near 15% become vulnerable if confidence weakens

• Tariff pass-through dynamics may stabilise $HD inventory turnover metrics

Quantum / Nuclear / Energy ($IONQ $SMR $RKLB $CIFR $CRWV)

• $IONQ partnership ecosystem focuses on error-corrected scaling pathways

• $SMR modular nuclear deployment addresses AI power constraints. Data centre demand projected above 100GW by 2035

• $CIFR $CRWV efficiency metrics remain decisive post-halving. $CRWV holding $88 is essential for mining breakeven under current energy pricing

Hardware / International ($HPQ $DELL $BIDU $MELI)

• $DELL AI server exposure leverages the $NVDA ecosystem with potential 25%+ revenue uplift

• $HPQ PC refresh cycles face consumer demand headwinds

• $BIDU cloud growth near 15% offsets structural search erosion

• $MELI logistics pressure from LatAm inflation persists, valuation remains attractive near 4x sales relative to growth profile

$NVDA Earnings Deep Dive, Wednesday Anchor 🚀

Options imply approximately ±7%, materially elevated versus the 3.2% median move over the last 10 quarters.

Recent reactions:

🔴 -3.15%

🔴 -0.78%

🟢 +3.24%

Current straddles price roughly 2x typical realised volatility. Three-month range compression suggests latent energy building beneath the surface.

Historical tendencies:

• 80% three-day win rate

• 70% one-week win rate on comparable volatility structures

Fundamentals Snapshot

• Rubin architecture integrates HBM4 memory for bandwidth expansion, targeting up to 10x inference cost reduction and 4x fewer units required for MoE training

• Full-stack positioning including inference IP and long-duration energy initiatives frames AI as multi-trillion infrastructure rather than a cyclical peak

• Risks include insider selling of 1.76M shares, China shipment restrictions on H200, and technical deterioration below $194.49 towards the 200-day moving average

• Year to date performance +1.8% despite peer weakness. Mean reversion potential exists at discount bands if monthly structure holds

Laptop silicon demand recovery through $DELL and $HPQ partnerships reintroduces consumer diversification, reducing hyperscaler concentration risk.

👉❓If hyperscaler capex re-accelerates towards the ~$600B trajectory while inference efficiency simultaneously improves 5 to 10x, does the market reprice AI leaders on infrastructure duration multiples rather than semiconductor cyclicality?

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