To The Moon

If you read one tweet this weekend, let it be this.

I used to have this terrible issue of always feeling like I *needed* to be in a trade.

But I built a style that solves this problem (+ others).

And many macro funds have a similar framework, but I tweaked it to make it my own.

It's constant index exposure + heavy concentrated bets when conviction spikes.

Sitting in cash was too hard for me (literally burns a hole in my pocket), so I stopped fighting it.

So most of my capital sits in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ (or other broad market exposure assets) the majority of the time...which lets my money keep working, keeps me involved with the market (no fomo), and captures the long term 8–9%(ish) drift of SPY.

So that's the *constant index exposure* part of the equation.

The other half is heavy concentrated bets.

- high conviction, a+ setups

- heavy sizing (sometimes even leveraged bets)

- bigger picture ideas

- rare, everything aligned

So instead of:

cash, trade, cash, trade...

It's:

index exposure, concentrated trade, index exposure, concentrated trade...

This idea makes sense (in my humble opinion) because it solves three real problems traders have:

1) opportunity cost

If you sit in cash 50%+ of the year you miss:

- equity drift

- dividends

- compounding

S&P historically compounds 8–10%(ish), why give that up?

2) psychological engagement

When traders are 100% cash, they often:

- force trades

- get bored

- chase momentum

If you’re already invested, the pressure to “do something” goes away bc you’re already participating.

3) Outsized returns

Druckenmiller's famous quote of, "the way to build long term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs."

Index exposure preserves capital + eases psychological friction, and high conviction thematic bets are your home runs.

Real world example with $100K.

Long SPY with $100K.

A+ setup appears.

Sell SPY and rotate capital into the trade.

Trade runs its course.

Trade closed.

Rotate back into SPY.

Wait days, months, even quarters for next a+ setup.

Collect the ~8% from SPY in the meantime.

Rinse and repeat.

Biggest mistake traders make is forcing trades when they feel disconnected from markets...but this baseline exposure fixes that in my opinion.

Optional risk filter (if you want to avoid exposure entirely sometimes) is to do everything the same as above, but only if SPY is over its 200 day moving average.

Anyways, hope this helps. It sure did for me.

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