Middle East Tensions Push Oil Above $100, SPY Under Pressure
DAILY MARKET UPDATE for March 12:
• chart analysis
• news brief
1.CHART ANALYSIS:
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is pulling back as the market reassesses the Iran conflict. Early optimism faded after reports suggested Iran remains largely intact, increasing the probability of a longer conflict. That uncertainty is weighing on equities.
Technically, SPY remains in a clear daily downtrend. On the 5-minute chart, price has repeatedly failed to break above the trendline, confirming continued selling pressure.
Key levels:
Resistance:
• $673.50
• $676
Support:
• $670
• $668
If $662 breaks, the next major downside target is $656 near the 200 SMA.
Watch the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closely. If it spikes above 30, that level historically signals panic and often precedes a short-term SPY bounce.
2.NEWS BREIF:
Markets are slipping as oil disruption in the Middle East intensifies.
SPY and European equities fell ~0.4%, while Asian markets dropped 1.2%. Brent crude briefly surged above $100 after attacks on ships forced Oman to halt operations at a key export terminal. Iran has also escalated strikes near Dubai.
The IEA reports ~7.5% of global oil supply is now affected, marking one of the largest energy disruptions in recent years.
Higher oil is pushing inflation fears back into markets, sending bonds lower and increasing volatility across assets.
Short term bearish for equities, bullish for energy and volatility if oil continues climbing.
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