$NVDA$
Good news first: the April 2nd 160 puts are gone $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ .
Bad news: now they're betting on a crash, staggered by expiry.
Even better news: premium's so cheap, notional is tiny.
You can see why bears gave up on normal puts. NVDA's actually cheap now. And it's been range-bound for 7 months — not crowded like MU.
Institutions running the same call spreads: 187.5 and 185. I'd still feel safer above 190 $NVDA 20260320 190.0 CALL$ .
But AMD just opened 16k of next week's 160 puts $AMD 20260320 160.0 PUT$ .
SMH also saw 13k of the 342.5 puts $SMH 20260320 342.5 PUT$ .
$SPY$
Put flow is pricing a 3% downside cushion for next week.
$USO$
There's no informational edge left. Feels like everyone knows 1/5 of global crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The only real unknown? How long the shutdown lasts.
Oil's grinding higher, but SPY's not panicking — yet. Feels like we're setting up for a TACO (Take Advantage of Cheap Oil) trade. And the higher oil goes, the more likely it flips.
Put flow says: oil still hard to break below 100 in the next month.
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