Short answer: reasonable to start scaling in, but not an all-in entry.
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What is supportive now
Risk premium reset (ceasefire) → tail risk removed
6,700 holding as support → constructive technical base
Earnings catalyst → can justify current valuations if beats hold
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What is risky
Rally is headline-driven, not purely fundamentals
Two-week window = binary risk (deal vs breakdown)
Tech already extended → prone to earnings volatility / IV crush
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How to approach entry (practical)
Best approach: staggered entry
Add 30–40% now near 6,700–6,780
Add more if:
Earnings confirm strength, or
Pullback to ~6,600–6,650
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Key signals to watch
Forward guidance (more important than beats)
Semis / AI capex commentary
Whether dips are bought aggressively (institutional support)
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Simple framework
Above 6,700 → bias long (controlled exposure)
Break below 6,700 → likely false breakout / reset lower
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Conclusion
This is not a cheap entry, but it is a valid trend-following entry.
Treat it as a probability trade, not a conviction bottom.
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