To The Moon

Market Outlook of S&P500 (18May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.29, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are s

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace of manufacturing activity. · I

Disclaimer: Whatever I say or post doesn't act as financial advice, so please do your due diligence before making any decision. Something to consider as you decide whether to chase this tech wave. No matter how much a company is earning and having positive forecast, there is always a "fair" valuation. So when valuation hits an exceptionally high level, thats when you should approach every trade more cautiously. It is wise to follow the trend and cash flow, however ask yourself if your decision is backed up with data and a strong conviction. @Madluvyz - Specialist in using FA and TA to sell options and swing trade. [Claw]   

Last week, the pendulum oscillating between Jobs and Inflation reports have swung back to Jobs. Did the reports manage to exert any influence on US market sentiments, let’s find out. Jobs & other US reports out this week include: Tue, 05 May 2026 - US Trade balance for March 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - S&P final US services PMI for April 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - Jobs opening & Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) for March 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - ISM services for April 2026. Wed, 06 May 2026 - ADP Non-farm payroll report for April 2026. Thu, 07 May 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & continuing. Fri, 08 May 2026 - US Consumer sentiments (Prelim) for May 2026. Fri, 08 May 2026 - US Non-farm payroll for April 2026.. US Trade Balance. The US trade balance report for March 2026, showed t

News and my thoughts from the past week (11May2026) The CEOs of SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, the 3 companies that run the global oil industry's infrastructure, just said the same thing on earnings calls: The Hormuz closure exposed that the global energy system is fundamentally fragile. The system wasn't broken by the war. It was already broken. "Systematically underinvested for a decade." The war just proved it. - X user Mario Nawfal Yes, Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said exactly that in a recent interview: “They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month.” He added that lower-income consumers are seeing negative cash flows and dipping into savings. The "most people" part is a slight generalisation. Trump admits he expected oil to hit $200-250 and says "even if

Earnings Calendar (11May2026) The coming week includes several notable earnings releases, including NU, Sea Limited, Alibaba, Cisco, and Applied Materials. Alibaba Alibaba stands out as one of the key names to watch this week ahead of earnings. Recent performance: The stock is up 11.78% from a year ago. Analyst view: Technical analysis points to a strong buy, and analyst sentiment also remains strongly positive. Price target: The average analyst price target is about $185, implying upside of roughly 32% to 35% from recent levels. Valuation: With earnings per share around 5.73 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2, the valuation appears relatively attractive. Financial performance Key financial trends from 2021 to 2025 are summarised below (figures in RMB). · Revenue inc

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 11May2026) Housing Market Existing home sales for April are forecast at 4.05 million units, up from the previous 3.98 million. This is a useful indicator of the overall health of the real estate market. Inflation Data The most closely watched economic release in the coming week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). The forecast is 3.7%, compared with the previous 3.3%. If inflation rises as expected, market volatility may increase. Core CPI will also be important to watch, with a forecast of 0.3% versus the previous 0.2%. Bond Market Signals The bond market remains an important reference point as investors weigh opportunities in stocks versus bonds, with interest rates playing a key role in that decision. This is why the upcoming 10-year

Quiet Week. That's Actually The Goal. Mathematical Money | May 10, 2026 I was away on holiday for most of this week. Light on screen time. Light on trading. Seven trades over the whole week — for context, recent weeks have been running 24 to 49 trades. This week was the quietest the book has had in months. And honestly, that's how it's supposed to look. Most of what I write about on this feed is the active part of the strategy — the rolls, the entries, the loss-takes, the regime adjustments. That stuff makes for better posts. But the truth about a properly built options book is that the active days are the exception, not the rule. Most weeks should look more like this one. Let me show you what actually happened. The Trades That Did Happen MARA puts decayed off cleanly. I had 40 contracts o

Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of "extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated "Operation Liberty" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the "acceptance of Pakistani mediation." During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-

take profits on companies you have less confidence in their growth over new few years. compnaies that are overvalued and hyped. or if you are trading. keep the strong companies

will $S&P 500(.SPX)$  hit 7300 next? 

Recently, the S&P 500 has maintained strength near its highs, but analyzing from multiple dimensions such as valuation, fund flows, and insider trading reveals that the internal market is not experiencing consistent expansion. The current US stock market is closer to a phase where 'index resilience remains strong, but structural divergence continues to deepen': At the index level, it is still supported by leading heavyweight stocks and capital inflow, but absolute stock-bond valuations are weak, sector valuations are diverging, insider trading signals and the internal strength disparities among the M7 all suggest that the constraints of operating at high levels have not disappeared. This article will systematically review the structural characteristics and potential constraints of curr

From my perspective, I’m not chasing this breakout aggressively. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ at all-time highs is bullish, but narrow breadth is a warning. When only a few names — especially semis — drive gains while the median stock lags, the market becomes more fragile. That said, I’m not bearish either because the AI capex story is still strong. Instead of chasing, I’d rather wait for a pullback or some rotation to reset positioning before adding exposure. Positioning also looks crowded, especially in momentum trades, which increases the risk of sharp reversals. I think laggards like healthcare or staples could catch up if conditions shift, but structurally tech leadership remains int

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Based on a research "The market is looking strong right now after the S&P 500 had a really good month, so I wouldn’t rush to sell everything just because of the “Sell in May” saying. That being said, after a big run-up, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some pullbacks or choppy days. A smart move would be to stay invested if you’re long term, but maybe take some profit on stocks that already ran too much. So my take is: don’t panic sell, but don’t get too greedy either. The trend still looks bullish, but it’s a good time to be careful and manage risk."

Berkshire is sitting on $397 billion worth in cash. Nothing to buy.  Nothing to see. $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$  

S&P 500 Just Logged Its Best Month Since 2020 — Is "Sell in May" a Trap or a Promise? April just wrapped up with a historic, face-ripping rally that caught the bears completely off guard. The S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, surging a massive 10.4% for the month, while the Nasdaq ripped an eye-watering 14.8% — printing the strongest single-month return we’ve seen since the post-COVID euphoria of 2020. Now, as we step into a new month, the oldest adage in Wall Street history is staring us right in the face: "Sell in May and go away." But with momentum running this hot and historical data painting a very different picture, stepping in front of this freight train might be the most dangerous trade you can make right now. 1️⃣ The Anatomy of the April Face-Ripper Let’s get one thing str

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🔥 The Pulse $S&P 500(.SPX)$ April just delivered the $S&P 500(.SPX)$'s best monthly performance since the COVID rebound euphoria of November 2020, closing at 7,209.01 with a blistering +10.4% gain. This wasn't just momentum — it was a capital rotation masterclass. A softer USD, Fed easing expectations baked in, and selective megacap earnings beats created the perfect storm. But here's the twist: while $GOOGL and $CAT soared +10% on blowout results, $META crashed -8.6% and $MSFT slipped -3.9% in the final session. The bull is alive, but it's picking favorites. The question: Do we chase into May, or does the old adage "Sell in May and go away" finally apply? 📊 Key News: The Numbers That Moved Markets $Ca

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace of manufacturing activity. · I

Last week, the pendulum oscillating between Jobs and Inflation reports have swung back to Jobs. Did the reports manage to exert any influence on US market sentiments, let’s find out. Jobs & other US reports out this week include: Tue, 05 May 2026 - US Trade balance for March 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - S&P final US services PMI for April 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - Jobs opening & Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) for March 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - ISM services for April 2026. Wed, 06 May 2026 - ADP Non-farm payroll report for April 2026. Thu, 07 May 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & continuing. Fri, 08 May 2026 - US Consumer sentiments (Prelim) for May 2026. Fri, 08 May 2026 - US Non-farm payroll for April 2026.. US Trade Balance. The US trade balance report for March 2026, showed t

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 11May2026) Housing Market Existing home sales for April are forecast at 4.05 million units, up from the previous 3.98 million. This is a useful indicator of the overall health of the real estate market. Inflation Data The most closely watched economic release in the coming week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). The forecast is 3.7%, compared with the previous 3.3%. If inflation rises as expected, market volatility may increase. Core CPI will also be important to watch, with a forecast of 0.3% versus the previous 0.2%. Bond Market Signals The bond market remains an important reference point as investors weigh opportunities in stocks versus bonds, with interest rates playing a key role in that decision. This is why the upcoming 10-year

Quiet Week. That's Actually The Goal. Mathematical Money | May 10, 2026 I was away on holiday for most of this week. Light on screen time. Light on trading. Seven trades over the whole week — for context, recent weeks have been running 24 to 49 trades. This week was the quietest the book has had in months. And honestly, that's how it's supposed to look. Most of what I write about on this feed is the active part of the strategy — the rolls, the entries, the loss-takes, the regime adjustments. That stuff makes for better posts. But the truth about a properly built options book is that the active days are the exception, not the rule. Most weeks should look more like this one. Let me show you what actually happened. The Trades That Did Happen MARA puts decayed off cleanly. I had 40 contracts o

Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of "extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated "Operation Liberty" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the "acceptance of Pakistani mediation." During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-

There were only a handful of US economic reports out last week. As we look backwards, they really did not impact US market at all. Is this even possible ? Reports out last week: Tue, 28 Apr 2026 - US Consumer confidence report for April 2026. Wed, 29 Apr 2026 - US Trade balance in goods for March 2026. Thu, 30 Apr 2026 - US Jobless claims - weekly & continuing. Thu, 30 Apr 2026 - US Gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 2026. Thu, 30 Apr 2026 - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for March 2026. Fri, 01 May 2026 - S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI (final) for April 2026. US Consumer confidence index (CCI) - April 2026. The US Consumer Confidence report was a mild upside surprise, with Conference Board’s headline index rose to 92.8, by +0.6 points from upwardly revised March 2026’s

Recently, the S&P 500 has maintained strength near its highs, but analyzing from multiple dimensions such as valuation, fund flows, and insider trading reveals that the internal market is not experiencing consistent expansion. The current US stock market is closer to a phase where 'index resilience remains strong, but structural divergence continues to deepen': At the index level, it is still supported by leading heavyweight stocks and capital inflow, but absolute stock-bond valuations are weak, sector valuations are diverging, insider trading signals and the internal strength disparities among the M7 all suggest that the constraints of operating at high levels have not disappeared. This article will systematically review the structural characteristics and potential constraints of curr

April Closed Strong. Most Of It Wasn't Me. Mathematical Money | May 2, 2026 April was the best month this account has had in a long time. Almost 30% on the month. Before anyone DMs asking what I bought — slow down. This is not a "look how clever I am" post. The opposite. I want to walk through this honestly, because if I let a headline percentage stand by itself, half of you will read it wrong and the other half will assume the entire thing came from some kind of genius call. Neither is true. Let me decompose it. Where The Money Actually Came From MARA stock recovery did the bulk of the work. On April 1 the stock was around $8.86. On April 30 it closed at $11.99. That's a 35% recovery in a single month on a position I was already holding. The vast majority of the month's gain — roughly 85%

Earnings Calendar (11May2026) The coming week includes several notable earnings releases, including NU, Sea Limited, Alibaba, Cisco, and Applied Materials. Alibaba Alibaba stands out as one of the key names to watch this week ahead of earnings. Recent performance: The stock is up 11.78% from a year ago. Analyst view: Technical analysis points to a strong buy, and analyst sentiment also remains strongly positive. Price target: The average analyst price target is about $185, implying upside of roughly 32% to 35% from recent levels. Valuation: With earnings per share around 5.73 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.2, the valuation appears relatively attractive. Financial performance Key financial trends from 2021 to 2025 are summarised below (figures in RMB). · Revenue inc

Last Week's Recap 1. Moderating Market: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Add ~1% as April Momentum Cools Moderating market — S&P 500 and NASDAQ both added ~1% to fresh records; Dow edged up 0.5%, still 1.4% below its all-time high. Fed transition — Fed held rates unchanged; Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Powell cleared a Senate panel, teeing up a full Senate vote. Bullish April — NASDAQ +15.3% (best month since Apr 2020); S&P 500 +10.4% (best since Nov 2020); Dow +7.1% (best since Nov 2024). Earnings surge — S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth forecast jumped to 27.1% from 15.0% after mega-cap tech beats, per FactSet. GDP comeback — Q1 GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate, up from 0.5% in Q4 2025. PC

Today, let’s talk about one of the hottest topics in the investment world recently: the sharp rally in the U.S. semiconductor sector. It is fair to say that, whether we look at the fundamentals and financial data or at market price performance, the semiconductor sector has become a major driver of the recent rise in U.S. equities, and arguably the dominant one. As we all know, in the recent performance of U.S. equity gains, large technology companies—especially the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—have delivered the largest share of the market’s beta gains. At the same time, in the upward revisions to average earnings-per-share expectations for the S&P 500, semiconductor names such as Nvidia and Micron have also made the biggest contributions. However, even in last week’s market ra

Sell in May and Go Away?  Why Not Pivot into XLU ETF?  🌟🌟🌟 April 2026 just went into the history books.  We didn't just climb, we roared.  With the S&P500 up over 10% marking its best month since November 2020 and closing at a fresh record high, the emotional whiplash is real. What should Investors Do in May? The Chaser:  This is one of the best 3 months rallies in history.  The momentum is undeniable, powered by massive earnings beats and an relentless AI surge.  To sell now is to fear the unknown, to sit on the sidelines while new fortunes are made at highs.  Holding cash may mean that inflation is eating away at it. The Profit Taker :  The voice of caution whispers not to be greedy.  After a 10% gain in one month, the air is getting

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

S&P 500 Just Logged Its Best Month Since 2020 — Is "Sell in May" a Trap or a Promise? April just wrapped up with a historic, face-ripping rally that caught the bears completely off guard. The S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, surging a massive 10.4% for the month, while the Nasdaq ripped an eye-watering 14.8% — printing the strongest single-month return we’ve seen since the post-COVID euphoria of 2020. Now, as we step into a new month, the oldest adage in Wall Street history is staring us right in the face: "Sell in May and go away." But with momentum running this hot and historical data painting a very different picture, stepping in front of this freight train might be the most dangerous trade you can make right now. 1️⃣ The Anatomy of the April Face-Ripper Let’s get one thing str

What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling." CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun

$Strategy(MSTR)$   Strategy [MSTR] is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Strategy will be report its quarterly financial results on May 5, 2026, Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus revenue and EPS expectations alongside recent developments in its Bitcoin accumulation and software operations. Market Forecast Based on the latest company-facing forecasts, Strategy’s current-quarter revenue is projected at 120.75 million US dollars, implying 4.23% year-over-year growth; the forecast points to adjusted EPS of -4.41 (year-over-year change of -39.05%) and EBIT of -3.39 billion US dollars (year-over-year change of -27,189.99%), while no company-level guidance for gross profit margin or net profit margi

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ is set to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026, before the market opens. After a massive 65% rally year-to-date, expectations are high, even as the company continues to navigate its transition from a COVID-only business to a multi-product platform. Below is an analysis of the upcoming report and the metrics that will likely drive post-earnings volatility. Q1 2026 Earnings Forecast Revenue Consensus: ~$223.5M to $251.8M (representing growth over the year-ago period). Earnings Per Share (EPS): Estimated loss of -$2.29 (range of -$1.76 to -$2.87). Earnings Surprise History: Moderna has an impressive track record, beating EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 34.4%. Moder

News and my thoughts from the past week (04May2026) We are seeing a historic earnings boom. The current year-over-year blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is a whopping +27.1%, more than DOUBLE the +13.1% expected. With ~63% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings thus far, we are on track for the highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. Meanwhile, Magnificent 7 companies alone are now guiding over $700 BILLION in CapEx spend for 2026 alone. There has never been a more historic time to own assets than now. Asset owners are winning. - X user The Kobeissi Letter UN boss Guterres just went full doomsday mode on the Strait of Hormuz chaos: If it drags on, we’re staring at global recession, inflation exploding past 6%, 32 million more people shoved into poverty, and

News and my thoughts from the past week (11May2026) The CEOs of SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, the 3 companies that run the global oil industry's infrastructure, just said the same thing on earnings calls: The Hormuz closure exposed that the global energy system is fundamentally fragile. The system wasn't broken by the war. It was already broken. "Systematically underinvested for a decade." The war just proved it. - X user Mario Nawfal Yes, Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said exactly that in a recent interview: “They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month.” He added that lower-income consumers are seeing negative cash flows and dipping into savings. The "most people" part is a slight generalisation. Trump admits he expected oil to hit $200-250 and says "even if

1. Moderating Market: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Add ~1% as April Momentum Cools U.S. indexes rose modestly for the second week in a row, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ both adding around 1%, while the Dow edged up 0.5%. The gains were more measured compared to the rapid advances in the first three weeks of April. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ remains 1.4% below its record set nearly three months ago, even as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ pushed to fresh record levels. 2. Fed Transition: Hold with 4 Dissents as Powell Era Nears End The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged, but the updated policy statement drew dissents from 4 of 12 members — refl