To The Moon

One deleted post from Michael Burry just wiped $23 billion off Palantir's market cap in a single day.

PLTR closed April 9 at $130.49, down 7.3%, extending a two-day loss of over 13%. The stock is now down 28% year to date and sitting 38% below its November 2025 peak of $207. Meanwhile, the broader market held its ground. This was not a macro selloff. This was targeted.

So is Burry right? And is $130 the buy of the year, or a value trap on its way to his $50 price target?

Let's actually dig into it.

🐻 Burry's Bear Case: What He Actually Said

Burry posted then deleted his critique on X, but not before the damage was done.

His argument in plain terms: Anthropic is eating Palantir's lunch in enterprise AI. He cited Ramp's March AI Index showing Anthropic capturing 73% of all new enterprise AI spending, with nearly one in four companies now paying for Anthropic, up from one in 25 a year ago. He contrasted Anthropic's ARR jump from $9 billion to $30 billion in months with Palantir taking 20 years to reach $5 billion.

His conclusion: Palantir can keep the government segment, which he called low margin and small. The real enterprise AI money is going elsewhere.

This is not a new thesis from Burry. He has held long-dated put options on PLTR since September 2025 at a $50 strike expiring in 2027. In that time, the stock is down 26%. His timing is looking increasingly prescient.

Adding fuel to the fire, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents on April 8, one day before the post. A cloud platform that lets enterprises deploy AI agents without touching infrastructure, cutting time-to-production by 10x according to Anthropic, starting at just $0.08 per session hour. Early adopters include Notion, Rakuten, and Asana. This is a direct shot at Palantir's AIP, which has been the core commercial growth engine since 2023.

The insider selling data makes this even harder to ignore. Over the past six months, PLTR insiders made zero purchases and 219 sales. Peter Thiel alone sold 2 million shares worth roughly $289 million. CEO Alex Karp sold 897,914 shares for $132 million. When the people who know the company best are selling every quarter without buying once, that is information.

🛡️ The Bull Case: Why Wedbush Says Burry Is Reading This Wrong

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives fired back immediately, calling the Burry thesis fictional and maintaining his Outperform rating with a $230 price target.

His core argument: Burry is comparing the wrong products.

Palantir does not sell a chatbot or an API. It sells an ontology, a digital twin of an entire organisation that integrates data across every system to automate complex decision-making at scale. The Pentagon's Maven Smart System, which was designated a permanent Program of Record in March 2026 covering all US military branches, is not something Anthropic can replicate. Anthropic is actually banned from federal systems. The Trump administration designated Anthropic a national security supply-chain risk after it refused to relax safety guardrails for weapons applications. A federal appeals court refused to halt that designation.

In other words, Palantir's most profitable and defensible segment is literally off-limits to its most dangerous competitor.

The financial results back the bull case up. Q4 2025 numbers were exceptional. Revenue hit $1.4 billion, up 70% year on year. US commercial revenue grew 137% to $507 million. US government revenue grew 66% to $570 million. GAAP net income margin was 43%. Adjusted free cash flow margin was 56%. The company closed 61 deals worth more than $10 million each. Full year 2026 guidance is $7.2 billion in revenue, implying 61% growth, with $4 billion in free cash flow. The company holds $7.2 billion in cash and carries zero debt.

Q1 2026 guidance is $1.532 to $1.536 billion, with earnings of $0.28 per share expected. Earnings report: May 11.

⚖️ The Honest Take: Both Are Partially Right

Burry is right about the commercial enterprise market. Anthropic's growth rate is extraordinary and enterprise AI budgets are consolidating around simpler, API-driven models. The SaaS model is genuinely under pressure from agentic AI. If Palantir's commercial growth slows meaningfully over the next two quarters, his thesis accelerates and the valuation becomes indefensible.

But Burry is wrong about the government moat. Maven as a permanent Program of Record is a structural win that cannot be un-won easily. The US military does not swap out mission-critical AI platforms the way a startup pivots its software stack. Palantir is now woven into the permanent fabric of how the US military operates. No amount of clever API pricing changes that.

The real tension is in the valuation. PLTR trades at 106 times forward earnings with a Rule of 40 score of 127% and exceptional margins. That multiple prices in continued commercial acceleration. If Anthropic chips away at that acceleration, the stock is overvalued by any traditional measure. If commercial growth holds above 100% year on year through Q1 and Q2, the $230 Wedbush target is not crazy.

🎯 The Setup Going Into May 11

$130 is the critical support level right now. It is a round number that has psychological weight and has attracted buyers on the dip post-Burry.

If it holds, the trade is: accumulate between $128 and $132, with eyes firmly on the May 11 earnings report.

Three things that could re-rate PLTR higher on May 11:

US commercial revenue sustaining above 100% year-on-year growth

Government contract value acceleration following the Maven designation

Any update on Cybersecurity or international government wins

Three things that confirm the bear thesis:

Commercial growth decelerating below 80% year on year

AIP customer churn or deal size shrinkage

Any guidance cut on the $7.2 billion full-year target

Bull case: $180 to $200 by year end if May 11 delivers

Bear case: $100 to $110 retest if commercial growth disappoints and Burry's thesis finds confirmation in the numbers

The software death spiral narrative is loud right now. But the data on the government side does not support it. The commercial enterprise side is where the outcome is genuinely uncertain.

$130 is not a screaming buy. But it is not a sell either. It is exactly where this stock should be while the market waits for the numbers to decide.

May 11 is the real verdict.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades.