特斯拉重新估價之差天共地
電動車定地板，SpaceX 定天空 —— 估值重估差天共地
特斯拉首季全球交付35.8 萬輛，遜於市場預期 37.2 萬輛，表現屬近年相對疲弱；產量40.8 萬輛則高於預期，產銷缺口擴大，直接反映庫存被動累積、終端需求轉弱，短期 基本面壓力清晰。
單從電動車業務看，產能過剩、價格戰壓力未消，利潤率持續受壓，股價短期仍需承受拋壓，尚未具備強勢反轉條件，底部仍需時間確認。
但市場估值邏輯正在切層：隨 SpaceX 股權注入特斯拉，兩者深度綁定，形成明顯影子股效應。馬斯克推進 SpaceX IPO 進程，將徹底改變特斯拉估值體系 —— 市場不再只以「電動車製造商」定價，而是重估為AI、航天、星鏈、能源、汽車生態平臺。
電動車業績決定下行底限，SpaceX IPO 預期決定上行空間。短期業績弱勢仍會拖累股價，但只要 IPO 預期升溫，資金便會開始搶跑佈局，負面因素逐步被估值重估覆蓋，股價有望迎來止跌回升拐點。
簡言之：短期看車要捱沽，中期看天必重估；底部看負面消化，反轉看 SpaceX 催化
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Open | 11.78 90 | +13.34% Holding |
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
