Greed Replaces Fear: $SPX Signals Strength as $AMZN $NVDA Stretch
The S&P 500 ($SPX) continues to show powerful momentum, supported by historically bullish RSI shifts. However, overbought conditions across mega-cap tech suggest the rally may pause before its next leg higher.
1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$
Smart Money was peaking and fear was at an extreme 15 at the end of March. Today, "Dumb Money" is peaking and greed has taken over 68.
Rapid RSI changes on the weekly are strong momentum signals. Bullish follow-through 6 and 12 months later every time.
Returns were also bullish 1 and 3 months later with the sole exception of 1994 which saw a consolidation before the bullish continuation resumed.
2. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Upper Bollinger Band breached + overbought RSI have preceded notable pullbacks for Amazon.
While the $213 may remain open (like $176 from 2025's bounce), other gaps are active magnets ahead of earnings: $250, $240, and $233.
3. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
The RSI is overbought for the first time since Oct2025.
Next week will be key: Will the overbought condition persist, as in 2023, 2024, and 2025, or was this a "one-off" move before a decline similar to last October? The structure suggests bullish continuation.
4. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ & $Oracle(ORCL)$
Solid breakouts, be mindful of consolidations:
$GOOG: Overbought RSI & Stochastic, $319 first gap
$AAPL: Overbought Stochastic, RSI is ok, no gaps, some indecision
$ORCL: Overbought RSI, Stochastic and Bollinger breached (big time), first gap at $172
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