To The Moon

The stock market struggled to find footing today as a surge in U.S. Treasury yields continued to pressure risk assets. Both long- and short-term government bond yields pushed to levels not seen in decades, capping any meaningful rebounds in equities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29%, marking its highest peak since 2007, while the 30-year yield surged to 5.62%, its highest mark since 2002. Adding to the bearish sentiment was a duo of weak economic reports. Data from The Conference Board revealed that U.S. consumer confidence has slumped to its lowest level since 2014, driven by anxieties over the cost of living and the labor market. This was followed by the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed U.S. job openings fell to 7.09 mil

👀 Oversold conditions are starting to create some interesting bounce setups across mega-cap tech. I’m watching $AMZN for the technical trigger, $META and $GOOG for confirmation, and $XLC for the broader sector signal. 🟡 $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Indecision at the lower Bollinger Band is catching my attention. The key level this week: 🎯 $251–253 If AMZN reclaims that zone → the bounce gets technical validation. The bigger question is whether we’re looking at: ↳ a tactical rebound ↳ or the start of a meaningful bottom Too early to know. For now, the risk/reward favors watching the bounce. 📈 🔵 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ META is also bouncing from oversold conditions. 📊 P/E: 17.6 If the recovery continues, I’ll be

On Saturday, we analyzed the technical cracks behind $S&P 500(.SPX)$ price action, and since Thursday, I presented the case for a bounce in the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ . Today, the SPX declined in correlation with those two elements. The central daily level for today (anticipated since Friday; our key line indicating bullish or bearish momentum) was 7,729. Today, the price opened below this level, drifting down toward 7,706 before hitting 7,670, the ultimate low of the day and a level anticipated on Friday if the CDL was lost. With today’s action, the SPX has lost also its Central Weekly Level (CWL). The unfilled gap at 7,651 continues to act as a magnet, and any bullish move before that space is

Two strong names. Two very different setups. 🟢 $Costco(COST)$ — Rebuilding Momentum The bullish engulfing candle reclaimed the 5, 10 and 20-day moving averages, with the move coming after earnings and from oversold conditions. No gap. No obvious chase. That gives the setup a cleaner recovery + risk-reward profile. 🔵 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ — Managing Momentum Meta has already made the breakout. Now the signals are telling a different story: price has breached the upper Bollinger Band, while RSI and MFI are showing overbought conditions. That doesn’t automatically invalidate the trend. It simply raises the odds of consolidation after the breakout. 🔄 The common thread: Both are showing strong underlyi

Last week, I laid out the bullish factors that could support a market bounce. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ On September 16, we highlighted oversold conditions in $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ , with a potential rebound developing for the following session. The weekly setup then started to confirm it: • The 7,610 gap was filled • Bollinger Bands pointed to stretched downside conditions • Oscillators supported the idea of a local bottom Monday’s rally validated that setup, although it also left another gap underneath. That brings 7,657 back into focus. Most gaps eventually get tested, so for me the question is timing rather than direction.

It’s worth analyzing today the macro updates we saw this week, then I’ll go into the charts and targets for this week. Four numbers dropped back to back and they were loud this week: Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.0 against an expectation of 53.6. Services PMI hit 58.7 against 55.8. Anything above 50 means expansion, so both sectors aren’t just growing, they blew past what economists modeled. That’s the first clue: the US economy is not slowing down. Implications for the stock market: Strong PMI data usually means strong corporate revenue ahead, so on the surface that’s bullish for equities. Then came Crude Oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2611(CLmain)$ Inventories, up 2.969 million barrels when the market expected a drawdown of 0.700 million. That

A gap represents a distinct break in the price action of an asset’s chart. It occurs when the price of an asset opens at a significantly different level (either higher or lower) than its previous day’s closing price, with no trading occurring in the price range between the close and the open. Visually, this creates an empty space or “hole” on the chart, which is often highlighted by traders (as seen in the yellow boxes on your chart). Gaps typically occur when significant news, earnings reports, or economic data are released while the market is closed, leading to a sudden shift in supply and demand before the next trading session begins. Price action is generally considered a continuous flow. A gap interrupts that flow, meaning that not every price level between the previous close and the

Two mega caps. Two different technical setups. One thing in common: the charts are starting to look stretched. 👀 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The preliminary weekly candle is shaping up as a shooting star, while Stochastic has triggered a bearish crossover. That combination matters because similar formations have previously appeared ahead of multi-week declines. The setup isn't confirmed yet. To invalidate it, $NVDA would need a strong bounce tomorrow. But there’s a problem: $216.70 is acting like a bearish magnet. If price continues struggling around that level, the weekly reversal setup remains in play. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ This chart is telling a different story. Price has been compressing into a narrow range while the

The stock market continues through a choppy season, where overnight moves and gaps have become the new normal. However, the current price action regime can be navigated those gaps in our favor, as we have done for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ itself; as gaps typically trigger counter-moves. Since Monday, the gap at 7,651 has been on our radar for the SPX. Tuesday’s indecision added warning signs, and Wednesday’s retrace, confirmed by the

Three mega caps, three slightly different setups. 👀 🔵 $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Price breached the upper Bollinger Band, which often brings a pullback or mean reversion into play. There’s still unfinished business around $330, while the stock is sitting in an oversold/discounted setup according to this framework. 🎯 That puts $330 on watch as a potential level for the next move. ⚡ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla is showing a setup similar to the $AAPL shooting star we discussed yesterday. Price pushed through the upper Bollinger Band, but the candle structure shows indecision rather than clean continuation. If the reversal pattern plays out, $363 becomes the first downside level to watch. 🟣