To The Moon

In last Saturday's Weekly Compass, I anticipated a high probability of a bearish reversal in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and a decline in the Dow Jones ETF ( $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ ), alongside bullish moves for $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$, and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , plus a spike in $iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)$ . Today, those setups played out as expected: SPX (-0.58%), DIA (-1.1% reaching $528 🎯), SPCX (+3.7% to $154.1 🎯), AVGO (+2.9% touching 372.9 🎯), AMD (+5.9% crossi

Three charts I’m watching closely this week: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ — the squeeze is getting tighter 🔥 Bollinger Bands are narrowing, which tells us volatility is being compressed. That usually doesn’t last forever. If the sequence of lower highs continues and $SPY finally comes down to the 766 gap, things could move quickly through the volume shelves. 🎯 Next support: ~754 So I’m not chasing the current range. I’m waiting for the compression to resolve and watching 766 as the first major test. $Micron Technology(MU)$ — the reset looks healthy 🧠 $MU has held its 20-week moving average after working off an overbought condition. That’s exactly the kind of reset you want to see in a strong trend. The

I began investing and trading with real dedication and discipline in 2016. That is already 10 years ago, when I started buying stocks the way many people do: reading the news, trying to build a bullish case with fundamentals, and listening to expert opinions. I always liked candlesticks as a visual representation of price action, and back then, I studied several books on the subject. Because no single technical indicator works in isolation, I learned about oscillators (Stochastic, RSI), Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and measuring my performance against the SPX. Back then, I focused heavily on the FAANGs (if you remember that acronym, congratulations; staying in this arena this long puts you far above the average investor or trader: $Meta Platforms

Another day, another rally — and another gap. For $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , I’m still not interested in fighting the trend. The market keeps pushing higher, so there’s no reason to force a bearish trade here. That said, 7,610 has already been tested, and I still have 7,681 on the radar. Eventually, I expect that level to come into play, while 7,610 remains unfinished business. 👀 In a choppy market, individual names can tell a very different story. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ are all holding the bullish setup we expected. 🚀 Then there’s

The stock market closed muted this week. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished flat (+0.1%) following an intra-week pullback that exceeded our bearish target of 7,642. By Thursday, weak economic data (ADP) and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (who noted he would support holding interest rates steady this month if incoming inflation numbers remain favorable) sparked a relief rally. However, as I highlighted last night in my daily note, key structural elements warranted skepticism regarding continuation for today. To avoid premature moves, I rely on daily levels to validate each thesis. For today, 7,730 served as the anticipated central daily level (CDL) dictating bullish or bearish momentum. Once price broke below that lev

U.S. stocks rallied propelled upward as Treasury yields fell following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated he would support holding interest rates steady at the upcoming policy meeting later this month. The probabilities for a rate hike in the next FOMC meeting fell to 50% today, from 63% yesterday, a major change that fueled the stock market. On the macro site, the ADP private sector payrolls report showed an increase of 38,000 jobs in August, coming in below estimates and providing further evidence of a cooling labor market, a factor that also favors continuation in interest rates instead of a rate hike. With that said, the rally left a new gap open for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 7,681 and for the

Three charts are standing out for three very different reasons today. 1. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 🎯 The bearish setup from Saturday played out almost perfectly. The downside targets were 292 and 289, and yesterday’s low came in at 289.40. Small caps are now down 1.7% this week, while the chart is starting to look oversold. That opens the door for a technical bounce. But bulls still have something to prove. 👉 $291.20 needs to be reclaimed to flip short-term momentum back up. If that happens, 292.40 comes back into focus. For now, I’m watching the reaction around 291.20 before getting too aggressive. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ 🍿 NFLX has been much more constructive since the extreme oversold reading around ea

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced today following oversold conditions and the indecisive price action (daily doji) observed yesterday. The bearish target for the week at 7,642.7 was breached, and then, the Central Daily Level that was modeled yesterday to consider bullish or bearish momentum was smoothly reclaimed today at the open. The SP500 opened below 7,635.4 and steadily gained upside momentum, moving toward the next bullish target of 7,659 before approaching with 7,681 to the next modeled level of 7,687. Price action printed a technical bounce, but tomorrow we will see how sustainable this move is by holding tomorrow’s central daily level (CDL and posted below), especially given that today’s rejection occurred right at a key monthly level for

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down -1% so far this week, losing its central weekly level of 7,707.1 as anticipated on Saturday and breaching the bearish target of 7,642. The index is currently testing the critical 7,638 zone; if it isn’t reclaimed quickly, the downward move could gain momentum. Meanwhile, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , which was hovering at year-to-date lows and primed for a bounce, has rallied +13% this week alone. Once the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ lost the anticipated Central Daily level of 7,700 overnight, the bearish continuation was triggered to start the month. The E-mini futures found temporary morning support at 7,651

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is heading into a turbulent seasonal month. Over the last 40 years, the SPX has seen a positive close in September just 48% of the time. This is well below the 72% historical positive average that I mention as the benchmark based on the last 70 years; anything notably above or below that reference gains relevance. Worth noting as well, the average move for September over the past 40 years has been -0.84%. A 48% win rate is a significant deviation to consider, and its relevance increases when you see that August is closing in the green this year. When I analyzed the years individually, many of the green Septembers were preceded by a red August, and vice versa, meaning that the window for a healthy pullback is narrowing. This