To The Moon

Energy experts say another oil price spike is coming, made worse by the president’s favourite past time of incessant postings on social media. The man has repeatedly spurred temporary dips in oil prices by claiming on his propaganda platform - Truth Social that the Iran war is near an end and that US oil production would ensure sky high gas prices would soon retreat. Each color corresponds to a specific outcome that traders are betting on. The jawboning has mostly worked. Even as the global price of oil has crept up over $100 per barrel on the futures market, it is significantly less than the $140 per barrel spot price, or what it would take to buy a barrel today. However, the president’s “promises” can only work for so long. According to Pickering Energy Partners, Chief investment officer, Dan Pickering: Oil supply in Europe and Asia is dwindling and a price shock is coming, regardless. When the summer driving season begins there will be another gas price shock that “hits people in the face”. A day of reckoning coming and it will be painful because the stock market is “ignoring” this, currently. Another spike in prices around Memorial Day (25 May 2026), could be a fatal blow to Republican chances for holding onto the House in 2027, as Americans’ confidence in the economy and approval of the president, continues to slide. On Mon, 27 Apr 2026, it was reported that Trump was reviewing Iran’s latest peace proposal, that arrived after he canceled his top negotiators’ planned trip to Pakistan for talks. (see below) He continues to maintain that a quick resolution to the war with an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is within reach. The White House remains confident that markets will soon stabilize, despite US gasoline prices having increased by more than $1.00 a gallon since the Iran war began, a major reason why the conflict is so unpopular with the US public. Officials close to Trump are gambling and dismissing analysts’ warnings that the true global economic impact of the war has yet to be felt. A senior White House official, granted anonymity spoke candidly, and shared the following points regarding US economy and fuel costs: Trump administration’s main goal is to reduce gasoline prices to even lower levels, as this is a top priority for everyone involved. Gas prices are viewed as a key sign of how the public perceives US economy and how well the country is performing financially. Officials are very concerned and realistic about the recent rise in fuel costs. Despite the current increase, there is a strong belief that prices will decrease before the year concludes. Last week, Trump said gas prices would drop as soon as the war ends. The issue is, “end of war” is nowhere in sight. According to think-tank Defense Priorities, Director of the Middle East Program, Rosemary Kelanic: The Trump administration’s optimistic outlook may be causing unintended issues in the Energy market. The government's message & belief that things will return to normal soon is discouraging US oil companies from increasing their output. Companies are reluctant to spend money on new oil production if they believe global conflicts are about to end. Lastly, there is a serious concern that if these conflicts do not end quickly, there will not be enough oil to meet global demand. By downplaying the situation, the administration risks making a future price spike much more painful. Valuable time is being lost that producers could have used to increase their supply. Even US oil and gas industry executives are frustrated with Trump’s rhetoric. At a recent Dallas Fed survey, a US oil and gas executive expressed frustration with conflicting messages from the president. The executive highlighted several key concerns regarding how his rhetorics affect the industry: The president inconsistent information makes it difficult for companies to make solid business plans. The mixed messages prevent operators from (a) effectively organizing their equipment (eg. drilling rigs) or (b) setting their financial budgets. As a result, oil prices often change suddenly and drastically based on the president's social media posts, creating an unpredictable environment for the industry. A gap has also formed between "paper market" prices, that jump up and down quickly, and the "real world" market, where prices mostly just go up. The respondent also caution on the probability that the paper market might be being manipulated, which distorts the actual value of oil. This instability will likely cause a worse balance between supply and demand, leading to even higher prices over the next 12 months. “Coincidentally”, a growing number of market analysts are reaching similar conclusion. On Sun, 26 Apr 2026, $Citigroup(C)$ increased its predicted average price for a global barrel of oil by +$15. The financial institution highlighted several key expectations in the coming months: The average price for a barrel of oil is now expected to reach $110 by Q2 2026. By Q3 2026, prices are anticipated to settle at an average of $95 per barrel. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until end June 2026, then cost of a barrel of oil could climb as high as $150. According to White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers: The administration expects oil prices to drop soon. Arguments include: US does not rely on the Strait of Hormuz for its oil and gas. Furthermore, the President previously managed to lower energy prices to very low levels very quickly. Once traffic in the Strait returns to normal, prices are expected to fall sharply. Rogers’ explanation is flawed at so many levels: The administration’s stance overlooks that oil is a globally priced commodity. Supply shocks in the Strait inevitably drive-up domestic costs regardless of where the physical barrels originate. Failure to acknowledge global price parity means the US effectively imports international inflation, directly burdening US citizens with higher energy and goods pricing. Additionally, citing past rapid price drops ignores the unprecedented structural impact of a major Strait disruption, that cannot be mitigated by simple historical precedent. According to Rapidan Energy, Director of Global Crude, Jenna Delaney: Since the US-Israel attacked Iran on 28 Feb 2026, much of the world has been using oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) loaded on tankers before the war broke out and supplemented by what’s in storage. Unfortunately, that finite supply will only last so long. Asia is already experiencing steep declines in stockpiles. Furthermore, global refineries have already cut runs due to challenges sourcing crude. Refined product supplies are already strained at current refinery run levels, and demand typically rises in Summer. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, Hd of Global commondities, Natasha Kaneya weighs-in: Oil inventories in some countries are days or weeks away from hitting “operational minimums” That could mean parts of the global energy system start to collapse, refineries will struggle to operate, energy flows will bottleneck and more. The latter is already evident across Asia, particularly in middle distillates and jet. All the while the former is unfolding more quietly, masked by timing lags, floating storage dynamics and the uneven regional distribution of stocks. To be clear, the US is largely insulated from the most severe energy shocks because of its role as the globe’s leading producer of oil and gas. The White House insists that America’s record level of oil and gas production will cushion the hit to the US economy posed by a global energy market that is just beginning to deal with the loss of so many barrels of oil now stranded in the Gulf. The senior White House official quipped: US is producing at historic levels and is able to capitalize on that. Tankers from all over the world are now pulling into American ports to fill up. Rounding off, Stimson Center, Senior Fellow, Emma Anderson said: In the best-case scenario, it will likely take longer than a few months for gas prices to return to pre-war levels, even in a best-case scenario. The primary effect on Americans will be inflation, that is likely already unavoidable. Gas prices are expected to increase over time. Higher diesel costs will lead to more expensive shipping and trucking. The prices of items purchased at stores will increase as a result of rising costs. $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ Measures Up ? To determine whether XOM is still a buy, let’s go back to the beginning. (see below) Exxon Mobil - YTD On the eve of US attacked Iran, XOM closed at $152.50 /share. (see above) On Tue, 28 Apr 2026, XOM closed at $150.56 /share, very close to 27 Feb 2026’s level, effectively resetting the war premium. The "return" is driven by the specific factors mentioned above, namely: The Insulation" Narrative. US market has priced XOM as a domestic safe-haven that is "insulated" from the Middle East chaos. By returning to 27 Feb 2026 level, US market is signaling that it no longer views the Straits blockade, a threat to XOM’s operational capacity. Success of "Jawboning". The passage notes that the President's claims of a "quick resolution" have worked. XOM’s dip from the $176 peak (end March 2026) back to $150 suggests that traders have been "spurred" into believing Trump’s the war-related supply risk is over, thus erasing the price spike that began the day of the attack. Discouraged Production. As highlighted by Defense Priorities, companies are reluctant to spend as they believe “normalcy” is just round the corner. The lack of aggressive expansion keeps XOM pinned to its pre-war valuation, as a result of Trump’s talking down the market. XOM - Still a “Buy” ! XOM returned to pre-war price is a massive market miscalculation, making XOM a screaming Buy for the following reasons. Finite Supply Reality. Although XOM’s stock price has returned to 27 Feb 2026’s levels, global oil inventory has not. As per Rapidan Energy’s Delaney and JPM’s Kaneya highlights: Asia and Europe are hitting "operational minimums”. Meaning, the world is in a much worse supply position now than back on 27 Feb 2026, yet the XOM stock price is not reflecting the scarcity. Memorial Day Correction. It is quite likely that the Straits will remain closed minimally for another month easily. (see below) If the Strait remains closed or if the "Summer driving season" begins with the current "supply and demand imbalance" XOM will not just return to its $176 peak, secured in late March 2026, it will likely surpass it. The current price is a "gift" created by Trump’s social media rhetoric that ignores physical shortage of barrels. After all that has been said, invest in XOM, while its still at a lower price before a surge for a classic "buy low" profit. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Q3 Earnings shows MSFT still a Buy, despite -33% fall ? An (INTEL)ligent Buy After Q1 Earnings ? Yes ! US Market ruled by Earnings not Reports. Do you think US general public and Wall Street have been conned by US incumbent ruling party ? Do you think Oil stocks, XOM or even $Direxion Daily XOM Bull 2X Shares(XOMX)$ will spike on 25 May 2026 - Memorial Day as predicted by many analysts ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents