US Tech Stocks:Caution on High Valuations, But Momentum Supports Upside
Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$
1. Emerging Markets: remain bullish EM equities given improved technicals, reasonable valuations, favorable macro/fundamentals, and very light positioning despite positive sentiment.
2. US Tech Stocks: remain wary on tech stocks given elevated valuations and stretched positioning, but lift risk-watch given strong macro/fundamental momentum and bullish technicals.
3. Gold: gold faces significant downside risk given major deterioration in technicals from a starting point of extreme overvaluation and consensus bullishness (and fading of past tailwinds).
4. Agri Commodities: remain vigilant to upside risk in agri commodities given improving technicals, supportive sentiment, fundamental upsides (valuations, capex, weather, geopolitics).
5. Monthly TAA Review: overall continue to favor growth assets (commodities and emerging markets in particular), funding by underweight to cash and gold (whereas bonds look slightly positive medium-term).
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