Midterm Year Risk Is Back: Could $SPY Drop Toward $650?
BIG WARNING 2026 is Trump's midterm year.
The last 13 midterm years, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashed 20% on average.
SPY hit $750 last week so sell off would take it towards $650 then $600.
DON'T MISS YOUR CHANCE to buy the dip. Remember, SPY always bounces back towards all time highs.
3 obvious reasons why market would crash in May/June:
1. Kevin Warsh starts his FOMC chair position and the market sells off usually.Warsh confirmed May 13 in the most divisive Fed vote in history (54–45). His first meeting is June 16–17. Markets historically sell off during Fed leadership transitions and wholesale inflation just printed 6% YoY, the highest since 2023, handing him a nightmare first act.
2. Inflation is climbing and is higher. Interest rates are climbing right now.April CPI hit 3.8% YoY a 3-year high. Rate cut odds for 2026 have collapsed to near zero. The market is now pricing a 20–30% chance of a rate HIKE by year end. Higher for longer just got longer.
3. The market is the 2nd most expensive in 155 years.The Shiller PE just hit ~42x only seen once before in history: December 1999, right before SPY dropped 50% in the dot-com crash. When you're priced for perfection, there's no margin for error.
The bottom will come. It always does. The question is: will you still be invested when SPY rips 30%+ back to all-time highs?
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