BTS
05-20

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  

Monday's selloff signaled rate repricing and crowded artificial intelligence positioning stress rather than a broad growth collapse, with rising yields pressuring both technology and defensive sectors simultaneously

The appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair marks a shift from predictable forward guidance, with a Warsh-led Fed likely tolerating more volatility and reducing reliance on the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell playbook, making every economic release and FOMC meeting more market-moving

Sell in May signals are appearing, with summer trading likely choppier as liquidity weakens and positioning fades, while NVIDIA (NVDA) fundamentals remain strong from expected revenue growth and hyperscaler spending, but earnings risk hinges on elevated expectations and a post-earnings dip could provide a chance to rebuild trimmed exposure。。。

A beat-and-raise may deliver limited near-term upside as strong results are already priced in, with "buy the rumor, sell the news" remaining a credible risk

Sell in May Back? Walsh Tooks Fed, NVDA Reports Tomorrow: Add or Trim?

@Tiger_comments：
Monday: $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ -8%, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ -11%, $Lumentum(LITE)$ -9.3%, $Corning(GLW)$ -8.1% — AI photonics and storage getting hit. $NVDA$ pulled back from the $235 high to $222.32, extending lower pre-market to $220.98. Three variables are hanging over the market simultaneously this week: the Sell in May narrative is playing out, a new Fed chair just took office, and NVDA reports tomorrow night. What is Monday's selloff telling us? May is structurally a high-pressure month — end-of-quarter repositioning, late earnings season, summer liquidity compression. The "Sell in May" narrative tends to self-fulfill. But index-level support remains intact — Morgan Stanley just raised its 12-month SPX target to 8,300 (bull case 9,400). The selling is in high-beta names, not the broader fundamental picture. How will market move when new Fed chair takes over? Powell officially stepped down May 15. Kevin Walsh was sworn in, confirmed 54-45 by the Senate. New chairs tend to run calmer-than-expected first months — they typically maintain the prior framework to avoid spooking markets. The real volatility arrives 3-6 months later as new policy frameworks begin to materially land. Walsh's key departures from the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell playbook? - Ending "over-communication": Scrapping 15 years of forward guidance. Risk assets will become far more sensitive to each data release and FOMC meeting - New inflation framework: Adopting the "trimmed mean PCE" (cutting bottom 24% + top 31% of weights) — currently reads significantly below core PCE given tariff-driven commodity shocks. Builds the narrative for rate cuts - AI productivity cover: Argues AI efficiency gains justify easing long-term — directionally market-friendly NVDA earnings tomorrow: market pullback is waiting for a chance $NVDA$ at $222, reporting May 20 after-hours. Latest bank targets: Consensus Q1 revenue estimate: $80B (vs Street $78.3-78.6B, about +2% above). Citi projects FY27 AI GPU revenue $284B (+79% YoY). Goldman's FY28 EPS is 34% above Street consensus. 9 of the past 12 quarters, NVDA beat by over $1 billion. Goldman's caveat: TSMC and SK Hynix supply chain data have already pre-loaded expectations. "The bar for outperformance is relatively high." With Walsh removing Fed certainty and Sell in May flows at work, any "sell the news" interpretation will get amplified. How are you positioned this week? Sell in May signals appearing, will you trim ahead of NVDA earnings? Walsh ending forward guidance means every FOMC meeting becomes a bigger volatility event, how you're sized going into the summer? If the beat-and-raise lands, do you think the stock rallies or "buy the rumor, sell the news"?
Sell in May Back? Walsh Tooks Fed, NVDA Reports Tomorrow: Add or Trim?

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  • lolmei
    ·05-20
    Ngl this feels more like positioning pain than broken fundamentals. I’m still holding Nvidia, but do you think a post-earnings dip even happens if hyperscaler spend stays hot?
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