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Nuclear for AI - SMR or CCJ, pick one winner!
@JC888:
I think it is safe to assume that Artificial Intelligence is here to stay for good. For that, the technology sector is witnessing a historic capital expenditure (capex) blitz, redefining the race for AI dominance. In Q1 2026 earnings prints, the world’s primary hyperscalers namely - Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta all revealed a jaw-dropping upwards revision to their infrastructure budgets. Instead of pulling back, these tech giants are channeling hundreds of billions of dollars into their physical footprints, driving collective annual capex projections for 2026 to a staggering $650 - $750 billion. The sheer volume of capital deployed in Q1 2026 alone highlights the magnitude of this infrastructure arms race: Amazon.com (AMZN)$ Led the group in absolute quarterly spending, recording a massive $43.2 billion in cash capital expenditures for the single quarter. Fueled by an acceleration in Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth to 28% ($37.6 billion), management signaled its intent to aggressively support its $364 billion cloud backlog. For FY 2026, AMZN’s capex spending is expected to push towards $200 billion. Alphabet(GOOG)$ During Q1 2026 earnings conference, GOOG shocked the market by raising its FY 2026 capital guidance to a band of $180 - $190 billion. It was a huge step up from its Q4 2025 projection, just 3 months prior. GOOG’s Q1 capital outlay hit $35.7 billion for the quarter. It was a direct response to Google Cloud revenue that has surged by +63% YoY to $20 billion. Another piece of ‘good’ news is their contracted future backlog nearly doubling quarter-over-quarter to $460 billion. Microsoft(MSFT)$ Similarly, MSFT committed an astonishing $34.9 billion to capital expenditures in Q1 2026 alone. Building data centers as fast as physical constraints allow, MSFT is tracking a massive annual run rate to support its $392 billion commercial cloud backlog. Noting that the primary bottleneck to its 40% Azure could growth remains raw data center capacity rather than enterprise demand. The main challenge preventing MSFT’s Azure from growing +40% is a shortage of physical data centers, rather than a lack of demand from businesses. Meta Platforms(META)$ The social media giant has raised the stakes by escalating its FY 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $125 - $145 billion. Despite a minor post-earnings stock dip due to investor anxiety over mounting infrastructure bills, META doubled down on its spending to fund advanced clusters for (a) Llama development, (b) custom MTIA silicon, and (c) heavy AI advertising architecture. SpaceX Inc(SPCX)$. Even private frontier enterprises like SpaceX have steadily intensified parallel investments, pouring billions into ultra-high-density ground stations, satellite connectivity infrastructure, and global networking backbones to feed this ravenous computational ecosystem. In short ….. Such unprecedented spendings will herald the definitive, near future arrival of the next-generation AI data centers. These hyperscalers, however, are no ordinary real estate buildings. They are incredibly dense, power-hungry infrastructures. Training & running modern generative AI models requires an unprecedented amount of electricity, with advanced facilities needing up to $10 - $12 million per megawatt to construct. As a result, the huge energy demand threatens to completely overwhelm traditional electrical grids, creating a projected 49-gigawatt (GW) domestic power shortfall within the next few years. With the hyperscalers' confirmed arrival in due course, the rest of the infrastructure needs to fall into place to support their operations and perhaps expansion, further down the road. Morphing Crypto-mining Companies. Even cryptocurrency mining companies are pivoting to (a) provide the critical power assets and (b) high-performance computing (HPC) environments required by these hyperscalers. Below are 3 most visible US‑listed crypto-miners that have materially pivoted to AI/data‑center or energy‑focused models. $Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ)$. Once a pure play bitcoin miner, its ~1.3 GW power‑entitled data centers were acquired by CRWV (Nvidia‑backed AI cloud) for $9 billion, explicitly to repurpose those sites for AI and HPC workloads. This is less a gradual pivot and more a full‑scale strategic handover of mining infrastructure to hyperscale AI demand. $MARA Holdings(MARA)$: Brands itself as a “digital energy” company, with a strategy to run bitcoin mining in the short term but shift power‑connected campuses toward AI/HPC tenants. It is supported by assets like a 505 MW gas plant and a European AI/HPC operator (Exaion).. $Riot Platforms(RIOT)$: Has been actively converting parts of its Texas campuses into mixed‑use facilities for bitcoin and HPC/AI. It has signed anchor HPC tenants like AMD on 25 MW of capacity and marketing its land‑banked campuses as hybrid compute‑and‑energy hubs. As these “alternate” infrastructure providers race to monetize their local grid connections, the sheer scale of impending energy shortage has forced the market to look for more permanent solutions instead of temporary fixes. More importantly, the realization that traditional fossil fuels (oil, gas) and fragile renewable energies (solar, wind, geo-thermal) will not be able to sustainably provide the steady, 24/7 power that hundreds of new data centers need is driving a big change across the entire energy industry. Nuclear - Back in Vogue? And just like that, nuclear energy that seemed to be a relic of the past is suddenly experiencing perhaps one of its biggest renaissances in decades. Surging demand for clean, reliable power and advances in small nuclear reactors (SMRs) have breathed new life into the once sleepy industry. Mixing the growing demand for electricity from data centers, and a Trump administration bullish on nuclear energy - that will be a recipe for monstrous growth. As US Energy Department recently stated: "The next American Nuclear Renaissance has arrived." Over the next 25 years, the US government wants to quadruple nuclear capacity from roughly 100 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 400 GW in 2050. That could be one reason Bank of America (BAC) sees nuclear energy representing a $10 trillion market opportunity. However one looks it, it is clear - nuclear is having a moment, for sure. Below 2 nuclear energy stocks could be among its biggest winners. $NuScale Power(SMR)$ This is company with a head start in the nascent small reactor market. It is the only US company with a SMR design that's been approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC). It matters because SMR technology could be the primary driver of future growth in the nuclear industry. As BAC puts it, SMRs could be "one of the most consequential energy technologies for the next 25 years." For the simple reasons: Unlike large nuclear power plants, that cost billions and can take a decade or more to complete, SMRs have the advantage of being pre-made in a factory. That not only (in theory) lowers construction costs, it could also reduce construction time from a decade to 2 - 3 years. Important note: It must be highlighted & noted that SMR technology remains largely a lab-tested concept with no commercial reactors in operations, in the US. Even NuScale, that enjoys its NRC-licensed design for over a year, does not have a first sale of its SMR technology. This underscores just how much initial friction confronts a novel nuclear energy company. If SMR succeeds building out its first SMR plants within an appropriate time frame and budget, it's sales could hit the ground running. However, until it can prove that SMR technology is as cheap and easy to fabricate as hoped, SMR stock will be heavily limited in upside growth. As of 20 May 2026 It is currently down about -80% from its peak of $53.43 on 15 Oct 2025. (see above) $Cameco(CCJ)$ It is a fact that, the next American nuclear renaissance won't go anywhere without fuel. Canadian-native CCJ happens to be one of the largest suppliers of uranium fuel to the US and the world. In 2024, CCJ produced about 17% of the world's uranium, second only to Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom (21%), followed by Orano (11%) after CCJ. CCJ is clearly one of a very small group of companies that is dominating the global uranium supply. That position could matter even more as uranium demand rises. According to the World Nuclear Association, demand is expected to climb about 28% by 2030 and more than 100% by 2040. For CCJ with uranium mines that include McCarthur River and Cigar Lake, 2 of the world's largest uranium mines, that could mean stronger pricing power, or volume, or both. The icing on the cake is CCJ also owns a 49% stake in Westinghouse, an engineering company that designs small modular reactor (SMR). Note: Westinghouse supplied the first commercial pressurized water reactor in 1957. Today, Westinghouse is part of an $80 billion agreement with the US government to build new reactors for AI deployment in the US However one slice or dice it, CCJ has the assets and uranium to become one of the biggest winners of the nuclear resurgence. In Summary. All things considered, nuclear energy is moving back into the spotlight, and these 2 companies sit on different sides of a similar growth story. Another way to play this growing trend in energy is a nuclear energy exchange-traded fund (ETF), which could capture the same long-term growth with marginally less volatility. This will be another post, another story altogether. When weighing these 2 distinct vehicle types for capitalizing on the AI-driven nuclear renaissance, I feel CCJ emerges as the significantly superior investment choice over SMR. When accessing which of the 2 companies, will be able to capitalize on the AI-driven nuclear renaissance, I feel CCJ is a better investment than SMR. While NuScale offers an alluring, high-beta narrative tied to theoretical deployment of SMRs, holding it back includes: Lack of commercial validation. High vulnerability to real-world challenges of (a) translating a project from blueprint to finished nuclear reactor, (b) regulatory delays and (c) capital dilution. In contrast, CCJ operates along the line of "heads I win, tails you lose" wager on the nuclear resurgence, offering an exceptional balance of (i) structural safety and (ii) growth optionality: Core Moat: Its 17% of global uranium supply gives it immediate, high-margin cash flows that act as a safety net. It does not need future technologies to succeed and justify its current valuation. It is already an irreplaceable supplier in a growing market. SMR Call Option: CCJ’s 49% Westinghouse stake, captures the high-growth upside of small modular reactors (SMRs) without the extreme operational risks of a pure-play startup. Also Westinghouse’s $80 billion government framework provides concrete, state-backed validation that pure-play peers lack. CCJ ‘wins’ under almost any renaissance scenario simply by controlling the irreplaceable fuel that powers it all. Technical Analysis. Is ‘now’ an ideal time to start accumulating CCJ ? As usual, I defer to its technical indicators of (1) Simple moving averages (SMA), (2) MACD and its (3) RSI for clues. (see below) As of 19 May 2026 end day Simple Moving Average (SMA). On Tue, 19 May 2026, CCJ ended the day at $103.52 /share, below its Simple moving averages (SMA) of 20-day ($117.80) and 50-day ($114.42). It is however, higher than its 200-day SMA ($99.54). (see above) This is a short-term negative setup, with medium-term support still intact as long as CCJ stays above the 200-day SMA. Near term points to continued weakness or consolidation, though the larger trend is not fully broken yet. MACD. The MACD line (-1.57) has crossed below both the Zero line & Signal line, while the Signal line (0.19) remains barely above the Zero line, a bearish setup that shows momentum has rolled over decisively. Near to mid term suggests downside pressure may persist unless the MACD line turns back up and crosses above the signal line. The negative divergence (-1.76) indicates that downside momentum is highly active and accelerating. This is particularly true for CCJ’s past one month’s performance. RSI. CCJ’s 14-day RSI stood at 38.26, that is below neutral 50 and approaching oversold territory (below 30). At the moment, it is not yet oversold. Against the backdrop of Middle East tensions, a uranium name like CCJ can still catch safe-haven and nuclear-energy interest. For now, its technical indicators are saying that any rebound is more likely to be tactical unless RSI improves and price reclaims the 20-day & 50-day averages. Parting Thoughts. In a world where AI’s insatiable energy demand is structurally reshaping power markets, nuclear’s resurgence appears less cyclical than inevitable. This positions CCJ not as a speculative bet, but a critical, supply-side gatekeeper with embedded upside to every plausible path of the nuclear renaissance. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Musk chooses SpaceX over TSLA ! Run Now ? Forget SpaceX IPO. RKLB, the Better Buy ! Rising Inflation Spook US Market Again? How ? Do you think small modulator reactor (SMR) will be a commercial reality, with Singapore adopting this technology as well ? Do you think CCJ is a worthwhile investment, thru’ dip-buying since it is not ‘cheap’ ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights so that more people will get to know ! Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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