To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 25May2026)

Market Holidays

Hong Kong will be closed on 25 May in observance of Buddha’s Birthday. The United States will also be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. In addition, Singapore will be closed on 27 May for Hari Raya Haji.

Inflation and Consumer Sentiment

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for May is due, with consensus expectations at 91.9. This would represent a decline from the previous reading and may point to softer consumer sentiment. Markets will be watching the Core PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation. As a key input into interest-rate expectations, this release could have a meaningful impact on market direction and volatility.

Growth and Business Activity

US first-quarter GDP growth is forecast at 2.0% quarter on quarter. Any material deviation from this figure could influence market sentiment. Durable goods orders for April are expected to rise by 3.3%, indicating firmer demand for long-lasting manufactured goods. The Chicago PMI for May is forecast at 51.3; a reading above 50 would signal expansion and provide a constructive sign for business activity. China’s manufacturing PMI for May will also be closely watched, given its significance not only for the domestic economy but also for the broader global outlook.

Labour Market and Housing

Initial jobless claims are forecast at 209,000 and will remain an important labour-market indicator for the Federal Reserve ahead of its next interest-rate decision. In housing, April new home sales are expected at 661,000, down from the previous reading of 682,000. This release will provide another useful signal on the health of the US real estate market.

Energy and Commodities

Crude oil inventory data will also be released in the coming week. The figures can offer insight into how producers are positioning for expected demand. A larger-than-expected drawdown could be supportive for oil prices and broader energy-market sentiment.

Earnings Calendar (25May2026)

This section highlights several of the most closely watched earnings releases for the coming week, including Salesforce, Dell, UiPath, Costco, Baidu, and Best Buy.

Salesforce Snapshot

The stock price has fallen 34% from a year ago. The Technical Analysis sentiment remains “Neutral”. Analysts’ sentiment remains positive with a “Buy” rating. With a price target of $282.27, there is a potential upside of over 45%.

Salesforce continues to show solid top-line growth, stronger profitability, and robust cash generation over the past several years. The key financial trends are summarised below.

Profitability

Total revenue increased from $26.4B in 2022 to $41.5B in 2026, while gross profit rose from $19.4B to $32.2B over the same period.

Net income also improved significantly, increasing from $1.4B in 2022 to $7.4B in 2026.

Balance Sheet

Total current assets increased from $22.8B in 2022 to $28.2B in 2026.

Total assets grew from $95.2B in 2022 to $112.3B in 2026.

Total liabilities rose from $37.0B in 2022 to $53.1B in 2026.

Total debt increased from $14.3B in 2022 to $17.7B in 2026.

Cash Flow and Capital Allocation

Cash flow from operations increased from $6.0B in 2022 to $14.9B in 2026, underscoring the company’s strong cash-generating ability.

It is also encouraging to see balance sheet discipline, alongside common stock repurchases amounting to $12.9B in 2026.

Levered free cash flow also expanded strongly over the past five years, rising from $8.7B in 2022 to $16.3B in 2026.

Q1/2026 news around Salesforce (by Gemini)

Salesforce delivered a strong performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, driven by intense momentum in its enterprise AI offerings. Total revenue rose 8% year-over-year to $9.8 billion, beating Wall Street expectations alongside a non-GAAP operating margin of 32.3%.

The primary catalyst for this growth was the widespread enterprise adoption of Data Cloud and its Agentforce AI platform, which together drove annual recurring revenue to over $1 billion (a 120% year-over-year jump). Nearly 60% of the company’s top 100 deals during the quarter included these integrated AI capabilities.

Capitalising on this momentum, Salesforce also announced a definitive $8 billion agreement to acquire Informatica to significantly bolster its data integration and management capabilities. Spurred by these robust results and solid pipeline execution, leadership raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $41.0 billion to $41.3 billion.

Earnings

The forecasted EPS and revenue for the coming earnings are $3.13 and $11.06B, respectively.

The qualitative value of CRM stems from its position as the undisputed global leader in cloud-based customer relationship management.

Others

Its deep enterprise moat is anchored by high switching costs and an extensive AppExchange ecosystem that secures customer stickiness. Furthermore, the seamless integration of Data Cloud with Agentforce AI serves as a powerful multi-cloud differentiator, driving massive platform consolidation.

Given the above, Salesforce looks to be of good value. With a P/E ratio of approximately 23, it seems to be an attractive offering. The market is expecting increasing profitability, but a falling revenue (forecast) is concerning. Will the business be under threat by other players and AI itself? This remains appealing, but I prefer to monitor for now.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (25May2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 has completed a top crossover and has started a downtrend.

Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.25, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook.

Other Technical Analysis

Using “Daily” intervals, the technical indicators are showing a “Strong Buy” rating. 20 indicators have a “Buy” rating and only 1 has a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The market remains in the “Greed” zone with a score of 59.

Weekly Outlook

Based on the above, the S&P500 should be leaning bearish entering into the new week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (25May2026)

Starbucks is retiring its AI inventory system across North America after the tool reportedly miscounted and mislabeled store inventory. - X user Unusual Whales

My Investing Muse (25May2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Bosch is slashing 22,000 jobs in Germany and slowly abandoning its own homeland just to survive. Germany lost 486,000 jobs in just 3 months, mostly in industry. The “economic miracle” is dying in real time. - X user Global Dissident

Goldman Sachs warned that AI could impact 300 million jobs globally. Many laughed it off. Now, companies are cutting thousands of roles while openly blaming AI, even as they post record profits. Meta just laid off 8,000 people while pouring over $100B into AI this year alone. And we’re still in the 1st inning. - Source: Goldman Sachs

Meta cut 8,000 people today. A survivor wrote about a teammate who slept 4 hours a night for months. Commits at 3am. Commits at 6am. IC4. Strong reviews. No PIP. Cut anyway. Working harder doesn't move you up the layoff list. You don't survive by being valuable to them. You survive by not needing them. - X user George Pu

More than 1,000 garment workers in Yangon’s Shwepyithar Township will lose their livelihoods at the end of June when Kings Rich Fashion, a supplier for global fashion giant H&M, shuts its doors. - Irrawaddy

More than 5,100 freight-related layoffs hit US supply chain sector FreshRealm, Amazon contractors, logistics providers and manufacturers slash jobs amid restructuring and softer industrial demand - FreightWaves

4,000 Cisco employees lost their jobs this morning. Last night the company raised AI order guidance. From $5B to $9B. Stock jumped 17% after hours. 12 hours between the earnings and the layoff. The money is moving. The people are not.

My thoughts

Market Risks and Positioning

There are growing concerns that the economy may be showing early signs of strain. Some investors also remain uneasy about the disconnect between market performance and the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflict.

The market may still be capable of extending its bull run in the near term. Even so, periods of strong performance are often followed by profit-taking as investors reassess valuations, risk, and the macroeconomic outlook.

Several factors suggest that a correction would not be unusual within the current cycle. These include signals from the bond market, softer GDP growth, unemployment rising toward 4.3%, and elevated debt levels across the federal, corporate, and consumer sectors. Viewed in that context, market peaks and pullbacks remain a normal part of the broader business cycle.

Market Context and Workforce Rationalisation

The ongoing wave of layoffs across the US technology sector is a reminder of how quickly market conditions can shift. In some cases, companies may indeed have built organizations with excess capacity, and workforce reductions may not immediately disrupt operations or financial performance. However, the full operational impact often becomes clear only after several months.

Layoffs framed around AI adoption can also reflect pressure on management teams to demonstrate returns on years of AI-related capital expenditure. In such cases, careful due diligence is essential. Companies need a clear understanding of which processes can be redesigned, where automation is genuinely effective, and where human oversight remains necessary.

There are also practical implementation risks to consider, including poor data quality, misrepresented processes, and deliberate or inadvertent system misuse. These issues can undermine performance, particularly when organizations move too quickly. Given the setbacks already seen at companies such as Salesforce and Klarna, further execution challenges would not be surprising. Ultimately, management teams must take responsibility if these decisions are made without sufficient planning and control.

The Case for an AI-Human Operating Model

I believe there is a strong case for a more balanced future, which I would describe as an AI-human interface (AIHI) model. Organizations and markets often move from one extreme to another, and AI adoption may follow the same pattern. Expectations that AI can fully replace human involvement are likely to give way to a more practical model in which human judgment remains central.

This is where the concept of humans in the loop becomes increasingly important. While the transition may involve meaningful disruption and short-term pain points, a more sustainable equilibrium is likely to emerge—one in which AI augments human capability rather than attempting to eliminate it. As with previous periods of technological change, adaptation will be difficult, but it will also create new ways to work and grow.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$