Bears: Higher real yields, resilient USD, and ETF outflows. If rates stay high, gold faces a headwind.
Bulls: Central-bank buying, rising government debt, geopolitical risks, and eventual rate cuts. They see the recent correction as temporary.
For ETF outflows, I would not blindly follow them. ETF investors are often late to both tops and bottoms. More important is whether central banks continue accumulating.
My stance:
Short term: Neutral to cautious. Momentum remains weak.
Long term: Moderately bullish.
Strategy: Gradual accumulation rather than an all-in dip buy.
The signal I'd watch is ETF outflows slowing while central-bank demand stays strong. If that happens, the current correction may look more like a reset than the start of a prolonged bear market.
I'd be a selective dip buyer, not a trend follower and not an aggressive contrarian.
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