To The Moon

Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Key News-Driven Factors (Mixed Bullish and Bearish Sentiment, with Bears Slightly in the Lead) ： $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ 1. Bearish: The Fed’s monetary policy remains generally hawkish. Situation: Fed officials (such as Kevin Warsh) have previously raised their inflation and interest rate forecasts for 2026. Currently, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while it is highly likely that rates will remain unchanged in July, the market is still pricing in the expectation of another rate hike in the future (e.g., in September). High real interest rates resulting from a high-interest-rate environment, coupled with a strong U.S. Dollar Index, are currently the pr

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

Amidst the current macroeconomic environment where AI and related sectors are stealing the spotlight, the performance of crypto assets this year has been exceptionally weak, failing to capture any upward momentum. The reality is that in the realm of narrative-driven assets, Bitcoin's history and storytelling capabilities are just as strong as any other asset. However, once expectations are overdrawn and fail to materialize, a return to reality is inevitable. Nevertheless, after a sustained decline, the likelihood of a short-term stabilization and a corrective rebound is increasing. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$

The start of each month is usually the key window for the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, so at the beginning of every month many people tend to see sizable swings in their investment accounts. This is because the NFP data often reshapes the market's expectations for the future economy, which in turn changes the price direction of related financial products. Last week's NFP data came in contrary to market expectations: the market had originally anticipated a figure of more than 100,000 new jobs, but the actual result was an increase of only 57,000. A slowdown in job gains indicates that the economy is not as “hot” as expected, which reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. As a result, since the data was released, the market has sharply lower

A Long-Term Investor’s Mindset 🏆 Looking at my portfolio, I am currently up about US$25 overall on my IAU Gold Trust position. The unrealized loss on my shares is larger, but over the past months I have recovered a significant portion of that through consistently selling covered calls. To many investors, seeing a red number may be discouraging, but I see it differently. $IAU 20260702 85.5 CALL$  I remind myself that an unrealized loss is only temporary unless I decide to sell my shares. As long as I continue to own IAU and believe in the long-term investment thesis for gold, temporary fluctuations are simply part of investing. Instead of worrying about the daily market price, I focus on generating regular income while

The Gold Rush Isn't Over, Just Catching Its Breath.  Which Gold ETF to Buy? 🌟🌟🌟 Gold has had a wild ride lately.  After hitting breathtaking highs, the market took a sharp downturn.  If you watch the charts, you might feel a bit of a panic.  But don't let fear dictate your next move. Right now, Gold isn't crashing.  It is simply resting, cooling off and returning to a much healthier and more reasonable price range.  The global forces keeping Gold strong, like central banks buying it up in massive quantities, have not changed.  This pullback is just a rare second chance for investors who felt they missed the boat earlier this year. Smart Investors are Eyeing IAU Over GLD ETF If you want to add the safety of Gold to your portfolio today, how you buy it matt

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ has finally cracked below the psychological $4,000 level. Gold Futures Monthly Chart For months, gold was treated like the untouchable safe-haven trade. It had the perfect storm behind it: inflation fears, geopolitical tension, central-bank buying, de-dollarization narratives, and retail demand. But markets do not move in straight lines forever. Now gold is facing a colder question: Was the move above $4,000 a new floor, or just the top floor of an overcrowded trade? The answer matters because gold’s latest drop is not just about one bad trading day. It is about a shift in what investors are prioritizing. When fear was rising, gold was king. Now that real yields are rebounding, the dollar is firming, and geopolitical

....................()

*Gold Breaks Below $4,000: Will We See $3,500?* Gold’s drop below the $4,000/oz level has caught traders’ attention, raising the question: is $3,500 next? After hitting record highs above $4,300 in late September 2026 on safe-haven demand, gold has corrected as U.S. Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened. A stronger dollar makes gold costlier for foreign buyers, while higher yields reduce bullion’s appeal since it pays no interest. Current affairs are also in play. Markets are watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next rate decision and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. If the Fed signals more rate hikes to fight inflation, gold could face further pressure toward $3,800-$3,500. Conversely, any escalation in global risk or a Fed pivot to cuts would

Since the US and Iran signed the ceasefire memorandum, news of renewed armed clashes between the two sides has emerged again over the weekend. The incident started when some merchant ships failed to navigate along Iran's designated routes, leading to them being intercepted with weapons fire, while the US bombed Iranian regional facilities once again on the grounds that Iran did not adhere to the terms. In reality, the entire process is no different from before the memorandum was signed; they fight and talk to increase their respective bargaining chips, and then pull back to the negotiating table to renegotiate. The rhythm of the entire financial market will continue to be pulled back and forth by relevant news, and investors should prepare for a roller-coaster ride. Of course, for short-te

After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob

I think there is still further downside for gold. The war in Iran is far from over and the global market will take some time to react to lowered oil prices if that even happens. I don’t think a Fed cut would be enough to restart the bull market for gold. Many would have been scarred by this and gold is still at insane levels compared to historical levels and I think many would rather put their money in technology and AI for the longer run. A short spike is expected with market optimism but I don’t see a bull run as many would just likely speculate and take it as for swing trading for quick profits. I have never liked gold as they don’t offer growth. They mainly reflect the supply and demand imbalance of the market and strives when there is fear in the market. During times of fear, I ra

A drop to $3500 levels would likely require further appreciation of the USD & US economic data pushing real interest rates higher. Central Bank Buying & long term speculative buying can prop it up significantly.

The USD depreciated and gold prices rose. Combined with growing investor awareness of US indebtedness, people caught the fever and started buying gold, which in turn drove up demand. Higher prices begot more buying, and the cycle fed on itself With the pace of cuts decelerating for 2026, and because markets are forward-looking, the previously aggressive easing path was priced out and the USD strengthened. Gold, which had risen on the expectation of rate cuts and a weaker dollar, suddenly became vulnerable. Add in unwinding speculative demand, and gold struggled to defend its levels and began to fall. And that was all before the Iran war. The outbreak of conflict worsened the outlook for gold. Higher energy prices mean more dollars are needed to transact, boosting demand for the USD and lif

Most overvalued asset in the world, should absolutely not buy. gold is pure speculation with no intrinsic value. About time for blind speculators to pay the price 

gold has dropped but it is not bottomed yet, aLso keep in mind that gold does not pay dividend or interest, it only appreciate in value overtime if you look back the prices it comes Ross over the years, then you will have good idea gold is not for short term gain it is for long-term holding . may be part of your  retirement fund

I'm waiting for a daily MACD divergence and peak rate-hike confirmation before averaging into gold. 

The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption: the Federal Reserve would eventually begin cutting interest rates. Then everything changed. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation concerns resurfaced, and central banks around the world—including the Fed—turned more hawkish. Markets quickly shifted from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes.

Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Key News-Driven Factors (Mixed Bullish and Bearish Sentiment, with Bears Slightly in the Lead) ： $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ 1. Bearish: The Fed’s monetary policy remains generally hawkish. Situation: Fed officials (such as Kevin Warsh) have previously raised their inflation and interest rate forecasts for 2026. Currently, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while it is highly likely that rates will remain unchanged in July, the market is still pricing in the expectation of another rate hike in the future (e.g., in September). High real interest rates resulting from a high-interest-rate environment, coupled with a strong U.S. Dollar Index, are currently the pr

Amidst the current macroeconomic environment where AI and related sectors are stealing the spotlight, the performance of crypto assets this year has been exceptionally weak, failing to capture any upward momentum. The reality is that in the realm of narrative-driven assets, Bitcoin's history and storytelling capabilities are just as strong as any other asset. However, once expectations are overdrawn and fail to materialize, a return to reality is inevitable. Nevertheless, after a sustained decline, the likelihood of a short-term stabilization and a corrective rebound is increasing. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:

The start of each month is usually the key window for the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, so at the beginning of every month many people tend to see sizable swings in their investment accounts. This is because the NFP data often reshapes the market's expectations for the future economy, which in turn changes the price direction of related financial products. Last week's NFP data came in contrary to market expectations: the market had originally anticipated a figure of more than 100,000 new jobs, but the actual result was an increase of only 57,000. A slowdown in job gains indicates that the economy is not as “hot” as expected, which reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. As a result, since the data was released, the market has sharply lower

Gold has broken down. On Wednesday, $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ fell below the $4,000/oz level for the first time since November 2025. From the record high of $5,594 reached in January, gold has now fallen nearly 29%. London gold tells a similar story. In just 30 trading days, it dropped from around 4,700 to 3,980, a decline of roughly 16%. Although prices rebounded modestly today, with $GLD$ trading around $368, the overall trend has clearly turned lower. Just two weeks ago, when we were discussing DBS's tokenized gold product, gold was still comfortably above 4,500. Now it's already below 4,000. Why Did Gold Collapse So Quickly? Higher rates. Stronger dollar. The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption

A Long-Term Investor’s Mindset 🏆 Looking at my portfolio, I am currently up about US$25 overall on my IAU Gold Trust position. The unrealized loss on my shares is larger, but over the past months I have recovered a significant portion of that through consistently selling covered calls. To many investors, seeing a red number may be discouraging, but I see it differently. $IAU 20260702 85.5 CALL$  I remind myself that an unrealized loss is only temporary unless I decide to sell my shares. As long as I continue to own IAU and believe in the long-term investment thesis for gold, temporary fluctuations are simply part of investing. Instead of worrying about the daily market price, I focus on generating regular income while

Gold is still wearing the crown. (period !) However, the market has just been taught a lesson and reminded (everyone) that even a runaway bull can stumble hard. On Wed, 24 Jun 2026, Spot gold prices were sharply lower after the close on Wednesday, as (a) a firmer US dollar, (b) aggressive post-Fed’s interest rate repricing and (c) easing oil-supply fears outweighed residual haven demand tied to the US-Iran situation. Spot gold plummeted more than -3% during the day, struggling to hold the psychologically significant $4,000 mark and trading around $3,980.20 per ounce (with spot gold settling near $3,998.00 at the time of Kitco post composition). (see below) The broad selloff pushed gold futures to their lowest level since November 2025, mirroring broader weakness across other (i) rate-sensi

The Gold Rush Isn't Over, Just Catching Its Breath.  Which Gold ETF to Buy? 🌟🌟🌟 Gold has had a wild ride lately.  After hitting breathtaking highs, the market took a sharp downturn.  If you watch the charts, you might feel a bit of a panic.  But don't let fear dictate your next move. Right now, Gold isn't crashing.  It is simply resting, cooling off and returning to a much healthier and more reasonable price range.  The global forces keeping Gold strong, like central banks buying it up in massive quantities, have not changed.  This pullback is just a rare second chance for investors who felt they missed the boat earlier this year. Smart Investors are Eyeing IAU Over GLD ETF If you want to add the safety of Gold to your portfolio today, how you buy it matt

After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ has finally cracked below the psychological $4,000 level. Gold Futures Monthly Chart For months, gold was treated like the untouchable safe-haven trade. It had the perfect storm behind it: inflation fears, geopolitical tension, central-bank buying, de-dollarization narratives, and retail demand. But markets do not move in straight lines forever. Now gold is facing a colder question: Was the move above $4,000 a new floor, or just the top floor of an overcrowded trade? The answer matters because gold’s latest drop is not just about one bad trading day. It is about a shift in what investors are prioritizing. When fear was rising, gold was king. Now that real yields are rebounding, the dollar is firming, and geopolitical

Since the US and Iran signed the ceasefire memorandum, news of renewed armed clashes between the two sides has emerged again over the weekend. The incident started when some merchant ships failed to navigate along Iran's designated routes, leading to them being intercepted with weapons fire, while the US bombed Iranian regional facilities once again on the grounds that Iran did not adhere to the terms. In reality, the entire process is no different from before the memorandum was signed; they fight and talk to increase their respective bargaining chips, and then pull back to the negotiating table to renegotiate. The rhythm of the entire financial market will continue to be pulled back and forth by relevant news, and investors should prepare for a roller-coaster ride. Of course, for short-te

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review：Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now！ Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act

Buying physical gold jewelry is a classic, tangible way to hold wealth, but if your goal is purely to capture a financial rebound at the $4,000 level, Gold ETFs like GLD and IAU are vastly superior vehicles for investors. When you buy physical jewelry, you pay steep "making charges" (premiums) and take a massive haircut on the spread when you sell it back to a jeweler. ETFs eliminate that friction entirely. How GLD and IAU Work Both SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) are physically backed grantor trusts. The Underlying Asset: They do not use complex derivatives or futures contracts to mimic the market. Instead, the fund managers literally buy and store 400-ounce international-standard gold bars in highly secured bank vaults (like HSBC or JPMorgan in London). Tracking:

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf

With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg

Spot gold has officially broken below the critical $4,000/oz level, marking its first close under this psychological support since November 2025. From its January all-time high, gold is now down nearly 30%, firmly entering bear-market territory. The selloff wasn’t caused by a collapse in gold’s fundamentals. Instead, it was triggered by a rapid repricing of interest-rate expectations: 📈 Fed Governor Waller’s recent hawkish comments revived fears that rates could stay higher for longer. 📈 Treasury yields surged, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. 📈 The stronger US dollar also pressured precious metals, leading to aggressive profit-taking after gold’s historic rally earlier this year. As a result, investors are asking the big question: Is this the start

Gold’s breach of the $4,000 mark and its journey up to an all-time high of nearly $5,600 earlier this year has been historic. However, the recent mid-year pullback into the $4,200 – $4,300 range has a lot of investors asking if the party is over, or if this is just a breath before the next leg up. Evaluating whether to add ETFs like $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ and $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ right now requires understanding why the market is breathing, the structural drivers behind the longer-term trend, and how to blend paper gold with the physical metal you already own. Physical Gold vs. Gold ETFs (GLD & IAU) Since you already own physical gold, adding a Gold ETF provides a completely different strategic benef