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Tesla Is Down 15%+ Since December. What Its Chart Says Here

Tesla has fallen more than 15% since hitting an all-time high in December even as the electric-vehicle and energy-storage giant beat analysts' revenue and earnings estimates for its latest quarter. What does TSLA's fundamental and technical analysis say?

Tesla's Fundamental Analysis

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   released fiscal Q1 results back on April 22, reporting $0.41 in adjusted earnings per share on $22.4 billion of revenue.

The firm's top and bottom lines both beat analyst estimates, with revenues up 15.8% year over year and adjusted EPS growing 51.9% from Q1 2025.

Gross profit likewise rose 50% y/y to $4.72 billion, while gross margin grew 478 basis points to 21.1%.

Meanwhile, operating income popped an astounding 136% to $941 million, while free cash flow exploded 117% upwards to $1.44 billion.

All in all, it was a very good quarter for Tesla at a time when the firm really needed one because its share price had been struggling.

Shares have bounced back about 8.5% from where they closed right before the numbers came out. However, that hasn't been enough to turn Tesla's performance positive for the year-to-date timeframe (where TSLA is off some 6%).

Tesla's Technical Analysis

Here's TSLA's chart going back some nine months and running through Monday morning (June 1) as attached:

We will first see that Tesla developed a double-top pattern of bearish reversal back in autumn. This set-up worked at first, as Tesla fell until late November.

The stock then rose to an all-time high in December before entering a downward-sloping trend, illustrated here by a Raff Regression model (the orange and pink shading in the chart's center).

But perhaps most importantly, Tesla next developed what looks like an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern from March into May. Marked with thick green diagonal lines and green boxes at the chart's right, this is a pattern of bullish reversal. TSLA broke out of this pattern, but then lost steam.

All of this would still be a generally bullish set-up except for the fact that another double-top pattern of bearish reversal could be forming at the chart's extreme right.

I'm not quite sure what I see here, but we should be fully cognizant that this potentially bearish pattern might be present. If so, Tesla's apparent downside pivot could stand at around $394 (vs. the $421 TSLA was trading at Tuesday morning).

Meanwhile, TSLA is feeling around to find support at both its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with an upwardly sloping red line) and 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a squiggly green line).

This is crucial, as losing the 200-day line would likely prompt some professional money managers to consider reducing their long-side exposure to the stock. Similarly, giving up the 21-day line could risk losing the swing crowd.

If Tesla gives up those two lines, its next indicated support level would be the stock's 50-day SMA (denoted by a blue line). That's where portfolio managers would likely decide whether to make a stand in the stock or not.

Turning to the other indicators included above, Tesla's Relative Strength Index (the gray line below the main chart) has been resilient and has found support at the neutral line.

However, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (the blue bars, black line and gold line at the chart's bottom) is in a tougher place.

Within the MACD, the histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) has moved below zero and is sending short-term bearish signals.

Meanwhile, Tesla's 12-day EMA (the black line) has moved below it 26-day EMA (gold line). That's also a bearish signal, but perhaps less so given that both of those lines are still in positive territory.

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