To The Moon

I feel the U.S. dollar will strengthen as the U.S. economy continues to perform well. Inflation could remain subdued if additional oil supply from Venezuela and Iran returns to global markets. With the U.S. also becoming a major exporter of oil and natural gas, a stronger energy position may further support the dollar.

In addition, record profits and massive capital spending by U.S. AI companies, coupled with a relatively low unemployment rate and the absence of quantitative easing (QE), provide further support for the U.S. economy and the dollar. AI investment is increasingly becoming a major driver of economic growth and corporate earnings.

My view is that the U.S. dollar will rise while Treasury yields gradually decline. The Federal Reserve may eventually lower interest rates (my own opinion) , but it is unlikely to provide strong forward guidance, as policymakers do not want financial markets to run too far ahead of actual policy actions. A more cautious communication approach could also help prevent excessive speculation and commodity price spikes driven by expectations rather than fundamentals. Recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggest a preference for limited forward guidance and a continued focus on inflation control.