To The Moon

Issued: May 11, 2026 Period Covered: May 5, 2026 → May 9, 2026 I. Core Market Structure: Three Layers Pricing the Rally $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ has now rallied for six consecutive weeks. Nasdaq at fresh all-time highs. Semiconductors leading Friday's session. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations at +115K vs. 55K consensus. All five Mag 7 names beat Q1 estimates. CAPEX guidance raised to $180–190B for 2026. The surface narrative is clean: everything is going up, everything is fine. FlowState Alpha's question is not "how much has it rallied" — it's "what's pricing this rally." Decomposed, the current advance is driven by three stacked layers: Layer 1: The AI CAPEX Arms Race. Mag 7 Q1 results were unifo

$GoDaddy(GDDY)$   GoDaddy (GDDY) Latest News GoDaddy (GDDY) and Infoblox said Thursday they support complementary open standards that help artificial intelligence agents identify, discover, and verify one another across the open web. Infoblox is advancing Domain Name System for AI Discovery, or DNS-AID, an open, interoperable approach for agent discovery developed on existing DNS infrastructure, according to the statement. GoDaddy is helping develop Agent Name Service, or ANS, an open standard focused on agent identity, naming and verification using DNS and public key infrastructure, the statement added. Infoblox and GoDaddy believe agent discovery and identity should be open and interoperable, not linked to pr

Sell in May happening after all positive big earning reports? Buy in Sep again some say?

Six straight weeks of gain is just a sign for a big crash. Get your cash ready for the big promotion sales

One thing I keep coming back to: The trend still looks strong, but this feels like a much more selective market now. Earlier in the move, it felt like momentum could lift almost anything. Now it feels more like the market is rewarding quality, earnings strength, and real leadership. I’m not in the camp of blindly shorting strength here, but I’m also not chasing every breakout like it’s early cycle. Main question for me: do leaders keep leading, or do we finally get rotation into laggards?

The markets have been rising and the party is on. However there is a dark side to all this.  As I like to say,"Every trend has an end" so we should look at the case when the trend reverses. Big players are already leveling up the contrarian bets. There is a call wall according to GEX data which was the highest OI for the SPX at 7400 but that has been broken. Smaller walls exist at 7425 and a bigger wall at 7450, and a greater wall at 7500.  Every time these levels are tested, big players will sell actively to reduce their Gamma Exposure and to avoid being trapped until they can move their positions higher.  So think of the contrarian scenario so you are in the right side when the trend ends!

 NVIDIA (NVDA) – Best Quality & Momentum Why it's #1: NVIDIA is the strongest overall pick. It has the highest valuation quality with a PE of 44.78x and an ROE of 101.49%. Today’s rally of +1.97% is a continuation of strong momentum, and it has the largest trading value ($35.36B) showing deep institutional support. It is the most fundamentally sound growth stock in the list. NVIDIA 219.44 4.24 +4.24(1.97%)

Prepare for the plunge

Will this six week streak a sign of a bigger downfall? Hope the momentum continues.

📈 Nasdaq has surged for six straight weeks, powered by AI capex & the semiconductor super‑cycle. Valuations are now near historical highs, & next week’s BABA, Tencent & CSCO earnings will test if fundamentals can keep pace. ✨ My view: after such a run, I’d stay on the sidelines and wait for take‑profit opportunities rather than chase.[Miser] @JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @Barcode @koolgal @Aqa @DiAngel

I would lean toward staying invested, but trimming selectively rather than going “all in” after six consecutive weekly gains. The structural AI thesis still looks intact: Hyperscaler AI capex remains enormous and multi-year in nature. Memory/HBM, networking, power, cooling and semiconductor supply chains are still capacity constrained. Earnings revisions for major AI beneficiaries are still trending upward rather than downward. That said, valuations are undeniably stretched. Historically, when the NASDAQ-100 enters upper percentile valuation zones after a rapid melt-up, markets become highly sensitive to: earnings misses, weaker forward guidance, capex ROI doubts, or macro surprises from rates/inflation. Next week matters because: Alibaba Group and Tencent test whether China AI/cloud deman

Last Week's Recap 1. Moderating Market -The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recorded their sixth consecutive weekly gains Upward momentum — as stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings growth lifted, The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finished up 4.51% for the week and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ added 2.33%. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ lagged, posting a fractional gain. Earnings juggernaut — S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth surged to 27.7% from 13.1% at end-March, the strongest since Q4 2021, per FactSet. Jobs improvement — Back-to-back monthly gains: April added 115K jobs (above forecast) and March revised up to 185K; unemployment held at 4.3%. Style shift — Growth outpaced value for the 5th

The Nasdaq hitting highs again looks strong on the surface, but I think this is where discipline matters most. I’m not automatically bearish here, but I also don’t think “market making new highs” is a reason by itself to chase. For me, the real question is whether leadership is still broadening, or if money is just crowding harder into the same quality names again. If breadth keeps improving, dips may stay buyable. If it stays narrow, I think chasing gets riskier from here. Are people here still buying strength, or starting to wait for better entries?

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There must be something that the smart money knows. Not sure why Goldman is going against the general flow. As usual, the smart money manipulates the market and we never know if goldman is trying to trick retail investors to pour money into the stock market. I don’t dare to chase the highs at this current level. It looks over extended though valuation is near the past 5 years. Technology and AI has driven the gains. Considering that it is driven by specific sectors rather than market as a whole is concerning even with strong labour reports. AI and technology could go higher but I prefer to wait for pullbacks to give me bigger bang for my buck. There is no hurry to jump in with my investment horizon of at least 10 years. Rate cuts will likely fuel technology and AI stocks to rise but there

US Stocks Out of Control 🎢 — The Era of Overnight Surges ​The recent madness in the US stock market is bordering on out of control. Watching SANDISK skyrocket over 4000% in a year, I can’t help but wonder if we’re approaching something like the 2000 Dot-Com bubble. Honestly, I haven't been in the market that long and I'm still building experience, but even the craziness of 2021 doesn't compare to what we're seeing right now. 🤯 ​The Buffett Indicator is currently sitting around 210-230%, whereas it only peaked at about 150-200% during the height of the Dot-Com bubble. This means the total market cap of US stocks has far outgrown the actual size of the US physical economy. ​Meanwhile, the Shiller PE ratio is hovering around 42, which is neck-and-neck with the 38 we saw in 2021 and the 44 we

The Case for Momentum (Why it might keep going) • Earnings Inflection: We aren't just trading on hype anymore. Q1 2026 earnings are exceeding forecasts by 20.7%—the strongest upside surprise since 2021. The "AI infrastructure" trade (NVDA, AMD, MU) is actually delivering the cash flow to justify these prices.  • Lack of "Exhaustion": Technically, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the "overbought" zone (above 70), we haven't seen a bearish divergence (where price makes a new high but RSI doesn't). This suggests the trend is still "healthy" for now. • Broadening Leadership: It’s no longer just the "Magnificent Seven." In May, we’ve seen money rotate into the "Power Stack" (utilities like CEG and industrials like VRT), which provides a more stable floor for the index. 2. The

My take: Goldman vs hedge funds? Both can be right. Goldman Sachs is looking 6 to 12 months ahead on earnings and liquidity. Hedge funds are trimming because positioning is crowded after a vertical run. Strategic bull, tactical caution. AMD / ARM upside? Advanced Micro Devices still has runway if AI GPU share keeps rising, but valuation is no longer cheap. Arm Holdings has strong AI CPU tailwinds, though much optimism is already priced in. Upside remains, but multiples are stretched. If Iran deal + Fed cuts? Money likely rotates from crowded leaders like NVIDIA into: 1. small caps 2. financials 3. REITs 4. industrial cyclicals 5. software / AI infra second-derivative plays Next leg broadens, not narrows.

My call: stay invested, but trim selectively. This rally is not purely speculative. It is backed by real capex, strong earnings breadth, and a sharp repricing in AI infrastructure names like Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology and Sandisk. The semiconductor index is up sharply, and earnings have broadly beaten expectations.  That said, six straight weekly gains + elevated valuation percentile = thinner margin of safety. Forward returns from here are likely more volatile. My positioning: Core compounders (60 to 70%): hold High-beta runners (20 to 30%): trim into strength Cash (10 to 20%): rebuild for pullbacks Next week matters. If Alibaba Group, Tencent and Cisco Systems confirm AI monetisation, networking demand, and enterprise spend, the bull case extends. If not, the

Disclaimer: Whatever I say or post doesn't act as financial advice, so please do your due diligence before making any decision. Chase the wave, or pause because the market is overbought and overly euphoric? I think that in this overzealous market, we should all take a step back and look for overlooked sectors. Healthcare is definitely one of the most beaten-down sectors, despite established companies such as JNJ and ABBV reporting earnings that exceeded expectations. Once institutional investors feel that tech stocks have become too overbought and begin taking profits, capital will likely rotate into overlooked sectors, with healthcare being one of the stronger candidates. I do not think this will happen immediately, but it is an idea worth sitting on and watching closely. @Madluvyz - Spec

$SOXL 20260508 130.0 PUT$ sell put on pull back to earn premium income if you believe $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  will continue to fly

$GoDaddy(GDDY)$   GoDaddy (GDDY) Latest News GoDaddy (GDDY) and Infoblox said Thursday they support complementary open standards that help artificial intelligence agents identify, discover, and verify one another across the open web. Infoblox is advancing Domain Name System for AI Discovery, or DNS-AID, an open, interoperable approach for agent discovery developed on existing DNS infrastructure, according to the statement. GoDaddy is helping develop Agent Name Service, or ANS, an open standard focused on agent identity, naming and verification using DNS and public key infrastructure, the statement added. Infoblox and GoDaddy believe agent discovery and identity should be open and interoperable, not linked to pr

Sell in May happening after all positive big earning reports? Buy in Sep again some say?

Issued: May 11, 2026 Period Covered: May 5, 2026 → May 9, 2026 I. Core Market Structure: Three Layers Pricing the Rally $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ has now rallied for six consecutive weeks. Nasdaq at fresh all-time highs. Semiconductors leading Friday's session. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations at +115K vs. 55K consensus. All five Mag 7 names beat Q1 estimates. CAPEX guidance raised to $180–190B for 2026. The surface narrative is clean: everything is going up, everything is fine. FlowState Alpha's question is not "how much has it rallied" — it's "what's pricing this rally." Decomposed, the current advance is driven by three stacked layers: Layer 1: The AI CAPEX Arms Race. Mag 7 Q1 results were unifo

Last Week's Recap 1. Moderating Market -The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recorded their sixth consecutive weekly gains Upward momentum — as stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings growth lifted, The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finished up 4.51% for the week and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ added 2.33%. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ lagged, posting a fractional gain. Earnings juggernaut — S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth surged to 27.7% from 13.1% at end-March, the strongest since Q4 2021, per FactSet. Jobs improvement — Back-to-back monthly gains: April added 115K jobs (above forecast) and March revised up to 185K; unemployment held at 4.3%. Style shift — Growth outpaced value for the 5th

One thing I keep coming back to: The trend still looks strong, but this feels like a much more selective market now. Earlier in the move, it felt like momentum could lift almost anything. Now it feels more like the market is rewarding quality, earnings strength, and real leadership. I’m not in the camp of blindly shorting strength here, but I’m also not chasing every breakout like it’s early cycle. Main question for me: do leaders keep leading, or do we finally get rotation into laggards?

Six straight weeks of gain is just a sign for a big crash. Get your cash ready for the big promotion sales

US Stocks Out of Control 🎢 — The Era of Overnight Surges ​The recent madness in the US stock market is bordering on out of control. Watching SANDISK skyrocket over 4000% in a year, I can’t help but wonder if we’re approaching something like the 2000 Dot-Com bubble. Honestly, I haven't been in the market that long and I'm still building experience, but even the craziness of 2021 doesn't compare to what we're seeing right now. 🤯 ​The Buffett Indicator is currently sitting around 210-230%, whereas it only peaked at about 150-200% during the height of the Dot-Com bubble. This means the total market cap of US stocks has far outgrown the actual size of the US physical economy. ​Meanwhile, the Shiller PE ratio is hovering around 42, which is neck-and-neck with the 38 we saw in 2021 and the 44 we

The markets have been rising and the party is on. However there is a dark side to all this.  As I like to say,"Every trend has an end" so we should look at the case when the trend reverses. Big players are already leveling up the contrarian bets. There is a call wall according to GEX data which was the highest OI for the SPX at 7400 but that has been broken. Smaller walls exist at 7425 and a bigger wall at 7450, and a greater wall at 7500.  Every time these levels are tested, big players will sell actively to reduce their Gamma Exposure and to avoid being trapped until they can move their positions higher.  So think of the contrarian scenario so you are in the right side when the trend ends!

I would lean toward staying invested, but trimming selectively rather than going “all in” after six consecutive weekly gains. The structural AI thesis still looks intact: Hyperscaler AI capex remains enormous and multi-year in nature. Memory/HBM, networking, power, cooling and semiconductor supply chains are still capacity constrained. Earnings revisions for major AI beneficiaries are still trending upward rather than downward. That said, valuations are undeniably stretched. Historically, when the NASDAQ-100 enters upper percentile valuation zones after a rapid melt-up, markets become highly sensitive to: earnings misses, weaker forward guidance, capex ROI doubts, or macro surprises from rates/inflation. Next week matters because: Alibaba Group and Tencent test whether China AI/cloud deman

Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of "extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated "Operation Liberty" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the "acceptance of Pakistani mediation." During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-

 NVIDIA (NVDA) – Best Quality & Momentum Why it's #1: NVIDIA is the strongest overall pick. It has the highest valuation quality with a PE of 44.78x and an ROE of 101.49%. Today’s rally of +1.97% is a continuation of strong momentum, and it has the largest trading value ($35.36B) showing deep institutional support. It is the most fundamentally sound growth stock in the list. NVIDIA 219.44 4.24 +4.24(1.97%)

📈 Nasdaq has surged for six straight weeks, powered by AI capex & the semiconductor super‑cycle. Valuations are now near historical highs, & next week’s BABA, Tencent & CSCO earnings will test if fundamentals can keep pace. ✨ My view: after such a run, I’d stay on the sidelines and wait for take‑profit opportunities rather than chase.[Miser] @JC888 @Barcode @Shyon @Barcode @koolgal @Aqa @DiAngel

Will this six week streak a sign of a bigger downfall? Hope the momentum continues.

Prepare for the plunge

The Case for Momentum (Why it might keep going) • Earnings Inflection: We aren't just trading on hype anymore. Q1 2026 earnings are exceeding forecasts by 20.7%—the strongest upside surprise since 2021. The "AI infrastructure" trade (NVDA, AMD, MU) is actually delivering the cash flow to justify these prices.  • Lack of "Exhaustion": Technically, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the "overbought" zone (above 70), we haven't seen a bearish divergence (where price makes a new high but RSI doesn't). This suggests the trend is still "healthy" for now. • Broadening Leadership: It’s no longer just the "Magnificent Seven." In May, we’ve seen money rotate into the "Power Stack" (utilities like CEG and industrials like VRT), which provides a more stable floor for the index. 2. The

There must be something that the smart money knows. Not sure why Goldman is going against the general flow. As usual, the smart money manipulates the market and we never know if goldman is trying to trick retail investors to pour money into the stock market. I don’t dare to chase the highs at this current level. It looks over extended though valuation is near the past 5 years. Technology and AI has driven the gains. Considering that it is driven by specific sectors rather than market as a whole is concerning even with strong labour reports. AI and technology could go higher but I prefer to wait for pullbacks to give me bigger bang for my buck. There is no hurry to jump in with my investment horizon of at least 10 years. Rate cuts will likely fuel technology and AI stocks to rise but there

The Nasdaq hitting highs again looks strong on the surface, but I think this is where discipline matters most. I’m not automatically bearish here, but I also don’t think “market making new highs” is a reason by itself to chase. For me, the real question is whether leadership is still broadening, or if money is just crowding harder into the same quality names again. If breadth keeps improving, dips may stay buyable. If it stays narrow, I think chasing gets riskier from here. Are people here still buying strength, or starting to wait for better entries?

My call: stay invested, but trim selectively. This rally is not purely speculative. It is backed by real capex, strong earnings breadth, and a sharp repricing in AI infrastructure names like Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology and Sandisk. The semiconductor index is up sharply, and earnings have broadly beaten expectations.  That said, six straight weekly gains + elevated valuation percentile = thinner margin of safety. Forward returns from here are likely more volatile. My positioning: Core compounders (60 to 70%): hold High-beta runners (20 to 30%): trim into strength Cash (10 to 20%): rebuild for pullbacks Next week matters. If Alibaba Group, Tencent and Cisco Systems confirm AI monetisation, networking demand, and enterprise spend, the bull case extends. If not, the

$Strategy(MSTR)$   $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$   Latest U.S. - Iran War News An official statement from Centcom detailed that Iran's offensive against three U.S. warships utilized "multiple missiles, drones, and small boats," but confirmed that "no U.S. assets were struck." The statement further explained that U.S. forces "neutralized incoming threats and struck Iranian military facilities responsible for the attacks, including missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaiss

Disclaimer: Whatever I say or post doesn't act as financial advice, so please do your due diligence before making any decision. Chase the wave, or pause because the market is overbought and overly euphoric? I think that in this overzealous market, we should all take a step back and look for overlooked sectors. Healthcare is definitely one of the most beaten-down sectors, despite established companies such as JNJ and ABBV reporting earnings that exceeded expectations. Once institutional investors feel that tech stocks have become too overbought and begin taking profits, capital will likely rotate into overlooked sectors, with healthcare being one of the stronger candidates. I do not think this will happen immediately, but it is an idea worth sitting on and watching closely. @Madluvyz - Spec