To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 03Aug2026)

Key macroeconomic releases in the coming week will provide important signals on growth, inflation, labour-market conditions, and energy demand.

Manufacturing and Inflation Indicators

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July is expected at 53.8, indicating continued expansion in global manufacturing activity. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for July will also be released. The previous ISM Manufacturing Prices reading of 73.0 pointed to inflationary pressure, which could eventually be passed on to consumers.

Labour-Market Data

Several labour-market indicators will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve ahead of its upcoming interest-rate decision:

• JOLTS job openings for June will be announced, following a previous reading of 7.594 million openings.

• ADP non-farm employment change for July will provide another early view of private-sector hiring momentum.

• Initial jobless claims will also be released, after the previous reading of 197,000.

• Average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment rate for July will be announced together. The unemployment rate previously stood at 4.2%.

Services Sector and Price Pressures

The S&P Global Services PMI for July is forecast at 53.6, suggesting continued expansion in global services activity. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July will also be released after a previous reading of 54.0, which pointed to growth in the sector.

However, the previous ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index reading of 67.7 suggested persistent inflationary pressure in the services sector. This remains an important area to monitor, as higher input costs may continue to flow through to consumers.

Energy Market Signals

Crude oil inventories previously recorded a drawdown of more than 7.16 million barrels, suggesting stronger demand than producers may have anticipated.

Overall, the week’s data will help shape expectations around growth, inflation, employment conditions, and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Earnings Calendar (03Aug2026)

In the coming week we have some highly anticipated earnings that included Palantir, Pfizer, McDonald’s, Walt Disney, Uber and SpaceX.

McDonald’s earnings are a global bellwether for consumer health and economic conditions. Same-store sales can show whether lower- and middle-income consumers are under budget pressure, while weaker foot traffic may point to inflation-driven pullbacks in value meals and discretionary dining. Menu prices also provide insight into commodity and labour cost pressures, including inputs such as beef and dairy. In a downturn, a shift by higher-income consumers from sit-down restaurants to fast food may signal weaker consumer sentiment. - from Google Gemini.

McDonald’s price has fallen by 10.65% from a year ago. Technical analysis has a recommendation to sell but analyst sentiment has a recommendation to buy. With the price target of $323.90 there’s a potential upside of 19.68%.

With the P/E ratio of 22.3 and EPS of $12.18, the stock can be interesting.

At 22.3x, McDonald’s P/E is slightly below the restaurant industry average of about 25x. It trades below Yum! Brands and Chipotle, but above Wendy’s, suggesting a mature, defensive valuation rather than high-growth pricing. - By Gemini and Co-Pilot

Five-Year Financial Performance

From 2021 to 2025, McDonald’s revenue rose from $23.2 billion to $26.8 billion, while gross profit increased from $12.5 billion to $15.4 billion. Net income was broadly unchanged at about $7.5 billion.

McDonald’s remains highly profitable, with a gross margin TTM of 57.35% and a net profit margin TTM of 31.62%. However, slower revenue momentum remains a point to monitor.

Balance Sheet

Total assets increased from $53.8 billion to $59.5 billion, while total liabilities rose from $58.4 billion to $61.3 billion. Liabilities exceeding assets remains a key balance-sheet concern.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow improved from $9.1 billion to $10.5 billion, while levered free cash flow edged up from $6.0 billion to $6.2 billion. Investing cash flow remained negative, reflecting continued capital deployment.

McDonalds’ Q2/2026 news

Between April and June 2026, McDonald’s demonstrated steady financial resilience while adapting to shifting consumer demands. In early May, the fast-food giant reported first-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations, posting $6.52 billion in revenue and an adjusted EPS of $2.83, supported by 3.8% global same-store sales growth. Despite beating targets, stock price dips reflected ongoing investor concerns over compressed U.S. restaurant margins and inflation-weary consumers. In response, McDonald’s declared a $1.86 quarterly dividend in May and launched its "McDonald’s > NEXT" strategy in June—doubling down on value platforms, expanded beverage programs, and store modernization to preserve market share. - from Grok/Kimi/Gemini

The forecasts for the coming EPS and Revenue stand at $3.33 adn $7.14B respectively. Given the above, I prefer to monitor the stock for now.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (03Aug2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

Source: Yahoo Finance dated 02Aug2026

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 200-day (MA200) moving average but cut the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the long term and uncertain in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

This is showing a bearish trend.

Chaikin Money Flow

The CMF index shows a score of 0.09, indicating more buying momentum than selling momentum.

Other Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Neutral” rating with 13 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and 6 indicators showing a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

With a score of “42”, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is suggesting that the general market sentiment is “Fear”. The “Fear” sentiment has continued from the previous week.

Weekly Outlook

The bottom crossover of the MACD is complete. Based on the above, the S&P500 should be Bearish for the new week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (03Aug2026)

To prevent Japan from selling even more US assets, he joined Japan in a massive coordinated intervention. But instead of selling USD, the US sold EUR. To keep this war going, the US has to bail out major holders of US assets to prevent them from selling... especially Treasuries. - X user Lukas Ekwueme

More than 1.2 million leveraged retail trading accounts in South Korea triggered margin calls as ​of July 13th, with an estimated 320,000–360,000 accounts fully liquidated, per Goldman Sachs. This means around 3.4% of the adult ⁠population in South Korea has received margin calls. The KOSPI is currently down another ~18% since July 13th. We believe that the total number of fully liquidated accounts is now above 500,000. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Don't just upgrade the models without the governance, security and sandbox. It is almost foolish that such scenarios are not catered for and the hubris to run this. Experiment by one and the whole neighbourhood pays the price?

More than 1,100 employees across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta have signed a petition calling on the US government to help "deliberately pace" AI development. The letter warns there is "a real risk" that AI progresses faster than people can "understand or control." The petition comes days after OpenAI disclosed that its own AI mistakenly hacked into Hugging Face. - X user Coin Bureau

AI companies are quietly obtaining rare books, ingesting their contents, and then destroying them, even if they're exceedingly rare, per FORTUNE

Well, this chart is absolutely terrifying... A record amount of IPOs in 2026 as the billionaires rush to cash out. We saw the exact same behaviour in 1999. - X user Financelot

A magnitude 7.1 quake struck Kumamoto Prefecture on July 28, registering the highest intensity of 7 on the Japanese scale in some areas. A tsunami advisory has been issued for the coasts of the Ariake Sea and the Yatsushiro Sea. - X user NHK World News

Shoppers are buying fewer items than a year ago, and grocery sales are declining as weakening unit sales are now outweighing rising prices, per CNBC

A former World Bank president has sounded the alarm, revealing that the Federal Reserve has lost over a trillion dollars—and counting—turning it into nothing more than a massive hedge fund for the rich and powerful. He claims the Fed is borrowing money from banks at 5.4% interest, then pouring it into government bonds, creating the illusion that the government’s financial situation is better than it actually is. He warns that this scheme isn’t just limited to the U.S.—it’s happening across central banks worldwide. - - X user Teddy - Polybacktest

My Investing Muse (03Aug2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Between July 27 and August 2, 2026, the tide of restructuring swept through industries with quiet force, as Porsche sealed an agreement to shed five thousand more roles toward a nine-thousand total by 2035 amid fading demand. Yet several claimed cuts fell just before the window: Centrica’s thirteen hundred, Telefónica Germany’s eleven hundred store-closing plan, K&L Gates’ ten-percent non-lawyer trim, and Amazon’s cloud software reductions had already echoed days earlier, while Intel’s Data Center moves and Magic Leap’s nearly two-hundred waveguide pivot gained only confirmatory notes within the week. Fresh waves arrived nonetheless—BMW offering voluntary exits for up to eight thousand German administrative and research posts by 2027, Visa releasing twenty-six hundred technology and product positions for efficiency and AI reinvestment, ServiceNow trimming hundreds globally toward leaner AI focus, Chime parting with about one hundred fifty, and BuzzFeed letting go roughly one hundred eighty under new ownership. Economic pressures and technological shifts continued their relentless reshaping. - compiled thanks to Grok and Gemini.

My investing muse

Travel and Cost Signals

A recent business trip to Indonesia offered a familiar rhythm of meetings, hotels, and airports. Downtime was scarce, but one impression lingered: daily costs appear to be edging higher.

Geopolitical Tensions

The Middle East remains balanced on a fragile peace, while Ukraine and Russia continue to trade blows. In this climate, markets may find it easier to price in escalation than to rely on calm.

Climate and Natural Disasters

Across Europe, wildfires continue to stretch from France and Spain to Greece, the United Kingdom, Turkey, and southern Europe, with another heat wave looming. In Asia, Kumamoto faces the aftermath of a 7.1-magnitude earthquake, extreme heat, and the approach of Superstorm Dolphin. Amid the damage, displacement, and loss of life, the hope is for safety, relief, and resilience.

Leverage and Market Fragility

South Korea’s wave of margin calls, affecting more than 1.2 million investors and nearly 500,000 liquidated accounts, is a sharp reminder of how quickly leverage can turn from fuel to fire. Similar risks may surface elsewhere if crowded trades begin to unwind.

AI Governance and Security

Reports of AI agents displaying unexpected behaviour are adding to concerns around governance and security. While these incidents may reflect design parameters rather than true autonomy, the market is beginning to take the risk more seriously.

The broader warning is clear: in markets built on leverage, currency pressure, and policy intervention, stability can be thin. Concerns over the yen carry trade and efforts by the US and Japan to stem currency weakness could, if they unravel as before, inject fresh volatility into global markets.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

$McDonald's(MCD)$