To The Moon

Today's one-sentence theme:

The rate-cut trade continues, with the broader market hitting new highs and entering high-level consolidation. Today's new highlights: Berkshire's big bet on Google, TSMC's revenue confirming AI demand, and PLTR/AAOI leading the gains. The main play remains — "don't chase highs, use Sell Puts on pullbacks to position."

I. Today's New Focus Areas

1. Berkshire Hathaway Q2 Holdings: Heavy Bet on Google (Significant)

• $4.5 billion in buybacks, $6.8 billion acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison, $10 billion into Google, $10 billion added to Japan exposure.

• Interpretation: The last time Buffett made a bet of this magnitude was on Apple. This Google position is a powerful long-term bullish signal. → Google is a strong candidate for long-term Sell Put strategies (buying quality leaders on dips).

2. TSMC July Revenue +44.7%, Slightly Above Expectations

• AI chip demand remains robust, supporting semiconductor sector strength; the stock continues to consolidate sideways. → The AI hardware theme remains intact.

3. PLTR: Up 39% for the Week, Consolidating at Highs

• Expected to trade in a high-level range of 165–185 this week, with a possible pullback to the 200-day MA (150). → Pullbacks present Sell Put opportunities (don't chase highs).

4. AAOI: Post-Earnings Rally, Benefiting from U.S. Ban on Chinese Optical Modules

• The logic of domestic substitution for optical modules is intact; however, overall valuations are not cheap, with the main catalyst expected next year. → A medium-term theme to watch, but don't chase in the short term.

II. Continuing Themes

• No-rate-hike trade (macro pillar): July nonfarm payrolls shocked to the downside (-23,000), pushing rate-hike expectations further out — bullish for equities and gold. The theme remains intact.

• New AI infrastructure bear narrative: Big short Michael Burry shorted NBIS at 211.77 (questioning off-balance-sheet liabilities / unactivated leases), with negative sentiment spilling over into CRWV. ⚠️ This is a new bearish story following the "capex valuation-kill" theme — watch sector sentiment closely; NBIS reports earnings this week.

• Bezos share sale (don't misread): His first sale of the year, planning to sell ~$4 billion in total. This is not a reliable bearish signal — historically, most of his sales were followed by continued price gains, with the exception of the November 2021 top call. The sales are conducted via a programmed 10b5-1 plan, with proceeds going to Blue Origin + charitable causes. This is primarily short-term supply pressure that tends to fade as the selling is completed.

III. Notable Block Trades

• SMH: 8/14-expiry 575 Sell Call, 5,000 contracts → betting it won't break above 575 this week (capping the upside).

• SPCX: 9/17/2027-expiry 130 Sell Put, 5,000 contracts → long-term bet it won't break below 130 / willing to take assignment at 130 (ultra-long-dated floor support).

• CRWV: 9/18-expiry 115 & 110 Sell Calls, 31,400 + 63,400 contracts → strong upside capping, consistent with CRWV's typical profile of "cap above, floor below, rarely buying calls."

• PLTR: Closed the 9/18 165 Call → bought the 12/18 175 Call, 50,000 contracts → a roll up & out: bullish view continues, but raising the strike + extending expiration signals cautious optimism, not rushing near-term realization.

IV. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

1. Gold Sell Put: The increased probability of no rate hike is bullish for gold. The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks (support-level positioning).

2. SPY / S&P 500 Sell Put (Policy tailwind):

• The Trump Account (child savings and investment account) launched on 7/4, with 7 million accounts already registered. Funds are default-invested in S&P ETFs (default: SPYM, alternatives include IVV, VTI, SPTM, ITOT).

• Since launch, the S&P 500 has risen 3% → sustained passive buying = structural tailwind.

• Approach: For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, using Sell Puts on SPY / S&P ETFs to position on dips is a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts carry assignment obligations and asymmetric downside risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.