To The Moon

Color Legend

• 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative.

• 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range.

I. This Week's Simulation Results: 3 Wins, 1 Floating Loss

SPCX Sell Put, 8/14 expiry at 120 — profitable, current price 0.03, nearly zeroed out, a complete win.

SKHY Sell Put, 8/21 expiry at 120 — profitable, current price 0.18, storage rebound, safe.

AMD Sell Put, 8/21 expiry at 400 — profitable, current price 0.51, sustainable (roll to next week's 400 Put).

TSLA Sell Call, 8/21 expiry at 350 — floating loss, current price 4.00. 340 is strong resistance; if it holding above 340, breaking through 342.5, and rebounding to 345 on Monday, consider closing or rolling to a higher Call.

The seller environment was broadly favorable this week, with the only pressure coming from the TSLA Sell Call — the stock rebounded this week approaching the 340 resistance level, requiring close attention.

II. Broader Market Assessment (SPY & QQQ)

SPY closed Thursday at 777.88, within the forecast range of 764–783 — consolidating and pushing higher, approaching the upper end of the range. Tuesday and Wednesday saw mild pullbacks on CPI data, but semiconductors quickly lifted the market back up.

This week's strongest theme was the storage violent rebound. SK Hynix (SKHY) rose 20% for the week. SNDK committed to returning 100% of excess FCF to shareholders and guided gross margins to 80% in FY28–30, significantly boosting AI semiconductor sentiment.

In the software sector, Silver Lake's rumored acquisition of Workday (WDAY) provided a direct lift.

Reminder: The broader market is approaching the upper end of its range, with multiple sectors hitting new highs. The risk-reward for chasing highs is deteriorating — sellers should pay attention to upside resistance and stop-losses.

III. Individual Stock Recap

Semiconductors / Storage (The Week's Main Characters, Collective Violent Rebound)

SKHY closed Thursday at 165.67, breaking above the simulated Sell Call strike of 160 and surging past the forecast range upper end of 125–151, up 20% for the week. Options data suggests a possible continuation toward previous highs. Note that while Korean stocks rebounded, Hong Kong stocks declined this week — a capital seesaw effect.

MU closed Thursday at 949.83, reaching the upper end of the 811–951 range, following the Hynix and SNDK rebound. Burry shorted Micron at 924. Memory stocks are expected to follow a similar trajectory and are suitable for deep OTM Sell Puts.

DRAM closed Thursday at 56.93, exceeding the upper end of the 46–55 range, with the memory rebound exceeding expectations.

TSM closed Thursday at 430.49, near the upper end of the 402–438 range. July revenue rose 44.7% YoY, slightly beating expectations, with AI chip demand remaining robust — continuing to consolidate.

AVGO closed Thursday at 417.82, within the 408–448 range, stable consolidation stuck in the 400–420 range.

AMD closed Thursday at 483, within the 452–515 range. Announced a $5 billion debt offering on Thursday — expected to continue consolidating, suitable for deep OTM Sell Puts.

INTC closed Thursday at 104.56, within the 93–110 range. Raised $20 billion at $95 (expanded from $15 billion on oversubscription), the CEO bought 12 million shares, and restarted the memory business — the stock held firmly above 100. Block trade: 11/20-expiry 92.5 Sell Put.

AI Leaders / Weighted Names

NVDA closed Thursday at 225.3, within the 215–233 range. Originally expected a pullback, but rising GPU rental prices plus new openings have lifted the expected center of gravity — consolidating at highs ahead of earnings, with a possible continuation to the upside. The institutional 9/4-expiry 190 Sell Put remains open.

MSFT closed Thursday at 496.88, within the 486–516 range. IGV saw a large 90 Put block trade mid-week. Be cautious of high-level debt issuance following the massive rally in cloud names.

META closed Thursday at 594.97, within the 570–615 range — an oversold rebound, but relatively weak.

GOOGL closed Thursday at 346.36, near the lower end of the 343–366 range. Berkshire Q2 built a position making it their top holding — Sell Put is worth considering.

AAPL closed Thursday at 305.26, near the lower end of the 305–322 range. No clear catalysts either way, consolidating at lows — current price is suitable for Sell Put.

AMZN closed Thursday at 265.13, near the lower end of the 265–284 range. Bezos selling pressure (planning to sell 15 million shares / $4 billion) is capping the stock.

TSLA closed Thursday at 339.96, reaching the upper end of the 314–343 range. This week's IV was unusually low plus continued rebound — a gap-fill higher cannot be ruled out, aligning with the pressure on the simulated Sell Call.

Others

SPCX closed Thursday at 141.29, near the upper end of the 118–148 range. The massive $100 billion lock-up expiry didn't trigger a sell-off, and Musk's endorsement of a bottom on X drove a sharp rebound this week. 150 is a resistance level where the stock will likely grind.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a simulation recap and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Please strictly control position sizes and stop-losses. Investing involves risk.