To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s August 26 report will test more than quarterly chip demand. The company now sits at the centre of a capital network involving cloud providers, private AI laboratories, data-centre developers, utilities and banks. Investors need evidence that end demand remains strong enough to justify both Nvidia’s valuation and the increasingly complex financing supporting AI infrastructure.

Nvidia’s first fiscal quarter ended April 26 and was reported May 20. Revenue increased 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, while Data Center revenue rose 92% to $75.2 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 75.0%. Management guided for second-quarter revenue of approximately $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, while excluding any Data Center compute revenue from China. Nvidia’s official first-quarter release provides the results and guidance.

The bullish case remains exceptional. Blackwell systems, networking and rack-scale products are required to train and operate increasingly capable models. Data Center networking revenue reached $14.8 billion in the first quarter, up 199%, showing that Nvidia’s opportunity extends beyond accelerators into the fabric connecting them. Hyperscalers represented about half of Data Center revenue, with AI clouds, enterprises, sovereign customers and industrial users providing the remainder.

The next catalyst is confirmed rather than rumoured: Nvidia will report for the quarter ended July 26 on August 26 at 2 p.m. Pacific Time. Nvidia’s official conference-call announcement provides the schedule. The market will focus on Blackwell shipments, gross margin, Rubin timing, networking growth and the forward revenue forecast.

The bearish concern is the quality and independence of AI demand. Nvidia has participated in financing arrangements and infrastructure partnerships intended to overcome power and capital bottlenecks. These agreements can lock in customers and accelerate deployment, but guarantees, investments and circular commercial relationships make cash collection and counterparty strength increasingly important. Export restrictions, custom accelerators from Google and others, and the enormous power required by new data centres add further risk.

Nvidia closed August 20 near $217.59 and closed August 21 at $214.72 after spending much of August below the recent high around $230. Approximately $210–$212 is near-term support, followed by $200. Resistance lies around $225–$230. With earnings only days away, ordinary chart levels are less reliable: a change in revenue or margin guidance can gap through several support bands before a spread can be adjusted. However, due to the chart setup of double bottom and breakout, I would lean towards a big move incoming post earnings.

There is no genuinely high-probability short-premium setup immediately before a binary Nvidia report merely because a strike has low delta. A more disciplined structure is conditional: after results, if NVDA holds above $210 and implied volatility contracts, consider the liquid 30–45-day bull put spread whose short strike lies below $200 and is closest to 0.10–0.15 delta—for illustration, $195/$185 if those strikes meet the conditions. A post-report close below $200 invalidates the thesis. Risk is capped at the strike width minus credit.

The operating evidence leans bullish, but the pre-earnings stock outlook is neutral because expectations and financing complexity are unusually high. The view would be invalidated by revenue missing the $91 billion framework, gross-margin deterioration, Blackwell deployment delays or evidence that customer financing is weakening cash collection. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice; it is not an instruction to enter any trade.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.