AMZN is One of the Safer 2x Opportunities in the Market
Tell me how these $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ forecasts don't work out:
1. $530B in AWS revenue in 2030 in line with MS forecasts.
-> At 30% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $3.18T business.
-> At 25% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $2.65T business.
2. E-Commerce ARR is ~$550B today.
-> At 10% CAGR growth we have a $833B revenue business in 2030.
-> At a conservative 1x sales that's $833B in value.
3. Digital Ads ha revenue heading towards $80B with 50% operating margins.
-> 20x EBIT values the business today in the $800B range. This should be a $1T business by 2030.
That's a $4.5T business EXCLUDING:
-> Amazon Leo
-> Zoox
-> One Medical
-> Prime Video
-> Equity stakes (If Anthropic IPO's at $2.5T,
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$'s stake will be ~20% of the entire MC today).
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is one of the safer 2x opportunities in the market over a 4-6 year period.
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