$IREN Down 42% While Revenue Estimates Surge
$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ is down 42% from its highs.
But the interesting part is what’s happening underneath the stock.
Analysts currently see roughly 44% upside, while $IREN remains on track for $4B of 2026 ARR. The company could potentially reach $16B–$24B of ARR in 2027 if its AI infrastructure rollout continues as planned.
And the estimates are already moving.
The fiscal 2027 revenue estimate has jumped from $1.5B to $2.8B in just 12 months, an 87% increase.
The fiscal 2028 estimate has also moved higher, from $6.4B to $7.2B.
That’s the key question for me:
If analysts had to raise the 2027 estimate by 87%, how much room is there for the 2028 number to move next?
The economics are also getting more interesting.
GPU pricing remains strong, while customer prepayments can cover roughly 45% of GPU deployment costs.
$IREN now has $4B of contracted ARR tied to its 2026 capacity, with $1B already operating.
The stock is pricing in a lot of risk.
The business may be starting to price in a lot more growth.
That disconnect is what I’m watching. 👀
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