🔥 #Memory Supercycle Over? I Don’t Think So.
Friday looked like a clean memory breakout — then today exposed the real battle. ⚔️
SK Hynix +4.83% 🚀
Micron -1.61% 📉
SanDisk -0.12% 😐
Same memory trade, completely different reactions. So what changed?
👉 The shortage hasn’t disappeared. It’s spreading.
HBM is already tight, but now conventional DRAM + NAND are being pulled into the squeeze. Reports of Samsung and SK Hynix inventories falling below 10 days are hard to ignore. 🧨
But here’s the catch: Kioxia.
If Kioxia is signalling that it wants to cool price increases, that challenges the cleanest bull thesis. Because in a shortage, the biggest enemy isn’t always weak demand — sometimes it’s your competitor deciding not to let prices run away. 👀
Still, I see this as a speed bump, not the end of the cycle.
AI infrastructure keeps consuming enormous amounts of memory, while meaningful new capacity takes time. If inventories continue falling while pricing remains firm, the market may eventually realise that the shortage is much deeper than one company’s pricing strategy.
🎯 My read: Memory supercycle = NOT OVER.
It’s entering the “prove the pricing power” phase.
Watch SK Hynix → inventory & HBM demand 📊
Watch Kioxia → NAND pricing 👁️
Watch Micron → DRAM pricing & margins 💰
Watch SNDK → whether NAND tightness translates into actual pricing power 🚀
If those four continue confirming tight supply, today’s divergence could look less like a top…
…and more like the market shaking out the weak hands before the next leg higher. 🔥📈
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- cheezzy·09-09 20:12Sub-10 day inventory only matters if that is true end demand, not channel stuffing. If Kioxia is already leaning against pricing, the clean bull case gets shaky fastLikeReport