To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the past week (28Sep2026) Benson's selected items (drafted from his inputs, his fact-check notes applied): 1. Weather and natural disasters across Asia. Typhoon Dujuan swept Japan's Kanto region around 21–23 September, bringing record rainfall, landslides and flooding with a rising death toll, and another storm was intensifying near Okinawa by week's end. Vietnam is still recovering from heavy rain and flooding across its northern and north-central provinces from mid-September, with homes inundated and crops damaged. In Thailand, all 50 Bangkok districts were declared disaster areas after severe rainfall, school closures and disruption to government travel — continued rain raises the risk of worse. In the Pacific, Hurricane Polo is real but its near-term threat is

Two-Thirds of Future Capacity Sold — Is Memory Becoming Less Cyclical? Memory stocks surged Tuesday, but the more interesting story may be happening underneath the share prices. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   SanDisk says roughly two-thirds of its FY2028 bits are already covered by new business-model agreements. That is significant because memory has historically been one of the most cyclical parts of semiconductors. What changed? SanDisk says its new agreements with eight customers cover approximately 50% of FY2027 bits and two-thirds of FY2028 bits. The contracts include committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and pricing mechanisms.  That gives SanDisk something memory companies traditionally haven’t had: greater visibility into

Preview of the week starting 28Sep2026 - Payrolls, PCE and a coin-flip in Sydney Economic Calendar (28Sep2026) Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com, via Benson) A genuinely live week: two US prints that can move the rates path, one central-bank decision that is too close to call, and China going quiet for Golden Week from Thursday. 1. The RBA decides — and the market has not made up its mind (Tuesday 29 September, 2:30 pm AEST). The cash rate sits at 4.35%. Pricing is roughly 55/45 between a 25 bp rise to 4.60% and a hold; NAB expects the rise this week, ANZ, CBA and Westpac lean to November. The awkward part: August CPI lands on Wednesday, after the vote, so the board decides with July's 3.5% headline (3.6% trimmed mean) as its freshest read. Whichever way it goes, the st

The global semiconductor memory market in 2026 is experiencing an unprecedented structural squeeze. While Big Tech hyperscalers, GPU titans, and cloud providers aggressively absorb massive volumes of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade DDR5, persistent shortages continue to plague the electronics ecosystem. In this article, we would like to offer a comprehensive financial analysis of High-Bandwidth Memory deficits, supply chain bottlenecks, and equity options execution. 1. The Paradox of Abundance: Why Memory Remains Constrained The contemporary artificial intelligence infrastructure boom has fundamentally re-architected the semiconductor demand curve. Hyperscale cloud providers and AI accelerator developers are procuring record volumes of memory silicon. Yet, persistent suppl

I don't think the market suddenly discovered dilution a day late. The shares were being sold through an ATM programme, so the dilution was happening gradually and was already known. What changed when the raise was completed was certainty: 29.3 million new shares had actually been issued, raising US$1.94B. That's roughly 5% dilution against Rocket Lab's previous common-share count. Thursday's rally may therefore have been relief that the Iridium financing was secured and the US$3.6B bridge facility could be cancelled. Friday then looked more like the market digesting the other side of that trade: a stronger balance sheet, but more shares dividing the future upside. So I wouldn't say dilution was priced exactly one day late. The market first rewarded financing certainty, then reconsidered w

I find the memory strength interesting because $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ , $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ all moved higher while the broader chip chain also remained positive. To me, this looks more like money staying within the AI semiconductor theme rather than a simple rotation away from chips. For Micron, the September 30 earnings will be important. I want to see whether margins and guidance can support the current memory-cycle optimism. A strong report could reinforce the thesis, while weaker guidance would make me more cautious. I am still bullish on semiconductors over the longer term, but I prefer to accumulate gradually during pullbacks rather t

I am leaning toward the view that AI has strengthened the memory cycle, but it has not eliminated the cycle completely. HBM and server DRAM demand are structurally stronger because AI servers are consuming much more memory, so I think this upcycle can last longer than a traditional cycle. At the same time, I understand Burry’s argument. Strong pricing will attract more capacity, and if supply catches up with AI demand, memory margins can compress quickly. For me, the key risk is the timing of the supply response, especially from new capacity and improving technology. I am still constructive on $Micron Technology(MU)$ for the mid to long term, but I prefer watching pricing, inventory and supply data rather than simply following the bullish narrative

I’d choose ③ — DRAM can stay strong, but NAND may peak first. AI is changing memory demand, but not every segment benefits equally. HBM and server DRAM remain closely tied to AI infrastructure, with rising memory content per server helping support pricing. NAND is different. Enterprise SSD demand is strong, but NAND still has greater exposure to consumer electronics. If new capacity ramps faster than demand, NAND pricing could weaken earlier. That’s why I wouldn’t ask whether the entire memory cycle has peaked. The more important question is which segment turns first. Burry’s warning still matters: high margins eventually attract supply. But timing is everything. For MU, SNDK and SKHY, I’d watch pricing, inventories and 2027 capacity growth closely. The memory trade may not be simply bulli

For the memory trade to stop needing the next price rise, I would want Micron to show that earnings growth can increasingly come from volume, product mix and structural AI demand rather than just higher DRAM and NAND prices. Strong HBM4 shipments, sustained data-centre demand, firm long-term customer commitments and continued margin strength even as pricing growth moderates would be especially important. If Micron can demonstrate that AI-driven memory demand remains ahead of supply into 2027 while volumes expand, the thesis becomes much more durable than simply betting on another pricing cycle.

A has been still trying to stay relevant! I hope the Ai revolution just crushes this idiot from a bygone era!!!

Memory stocks have been one of the hottest parts of the AI trade, but Michael Burry is leaning the other way. Burry has continued to add to his bearish exposure on $Micron Technology(MU), even as DRAM pricing remains firm and AI-related demand stays strong. What makes the trade interesting is the timing: he is not shorting memory because the current fundamentals look weak. He appears to be betting that today’s strength eventually creates tomorrow’s oversupply. That is the core debate in memory right now. The bullish case is straightforward. AI servers need more HBM, more server DRAM and more enterprise SSD capacity. Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure, memory content per server keeps rising, and supply remains tight in several key categories. In that environment, strong pricing

For $MU, I think the bigger test is whether the numbers show the cycle is translating into sustainable cash generation. I’d be watching free cash flow, capex discipline and how much of future production is already committed. If Micron can grow earnings without having to keep pushing prices higher, that could be a meaningful sign that the current memory cycle has more staying power. 👀

The most interesting part of the memory rally isn’t Tuesday’s gains. It’s what the order books are starting to say. SanDisk jumped 6.82%, Micron gained 5%, and SK Hynix rose 3.45%. Rosenblatt’s new SanDisk coverage highlighted customer agreements covering roughly 65% of fiscal 2028 production — a very different setup from the classic memory cycle where companies build capacity first and hope demand follows.  That creates an unusual question: If so much future capacity is already spoken for, is the market still pricing memory like a commodity cycle? There are two ways to look at it. 📈 The bull case: Long-term commitments give manufacturers better visibility and reduce the risk of aggressive inventory swings. AI infrastructure is also creating demand for both HBM and high-performance NAND,

The funding removes a lot of financing uncertainty, but now investors have to weigh more shares against the growth Iridium could bring. The key question is whether the market has already priced that trade-off in. 👀

Interesting setup for $INTC and $ARM. I’d be watching for more firm orders and longer-term commitments to see whether the strong CPU demand is translating into sustained growth. If that starts showing up, it could make the story even more interesting. 👀

The real question for $MU on Sept 30 isn’t just whether Micron beats — it’s whether management can prove the memory pricing cycle has become structural. If margins stay elevated, HBM demand remains tight and FY2027 pricing holds up, the trade may no longer need another price spike to work. 👀

🔥 Two-Thirds of SNDK’s FY2028 Capacity Is Already Sold — This Memory Cycle Is Starting to Look Different The most important number in the memory market right now may not be NAND pricing. It may be two-thirds. SanDisk has already signed New Business Model agreements covering approximately 50% of its FY2027 bits and ~two-thirds of FY2028 bits. These aren’t simple purchase intentions — the agreements are built around committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and structured pricing mechanisms. That matters because traditional NAND has always been brutally cyclical: Demand rises → manufacturers add capacity → supply catches up → prices collapse → margins compress. But what happens when a substantial portion of future production is already spoken for? 💡 The cycle becomes much more predicta

The memory rally is real—but the next phase is about proving earnings can catch up with expectations. AI is absorbing enormous amounts of DRAM, HBM and NAND, while new capacity takes years to build. That gives $MU and $SKHY unusual pricing power. But I wouldn’t confuse “sold out” with “risk-free.” CXMT is already expanding advanced DRAM production, while memory is still a cyclical industry. For me, the real signal is simple: watch whether strong pricing translates into sustained margins and cash flow. If MU’s September 30 results confirm that, the thesis gets stronger. If demand or pricing disappoints, today’s high expectations could amplify the downside. Memory isn’t just a capacity story anymore—it’s a test of whether AI demand can permanently reshape the cycle.

$MU$   Micron Technology (MU) Investment Thesis Micron Technology faces moderating memory price increases as supply and demand rebalance, but AI data center demand remains robust. MU's gross margins are supported by long-term supply contracts, with 40% of revenue soon tied to fixed or capped pricing. Capacity expansions—including Idaho-1, Singapore HBM, and Tonglou—will drive the next growth phase starting FY'27 amid industry-wide supply increases. Key risks include labor negotiations in Taiwan, potential customer inventory build-ups, and margin sensitivity in non-data center segments. Dell (DELL) COO captured this sentiment, noting that some public sector customers have fixed budgets a

My choice: A — Buy AI infrastructure. Why? AI agents need more computing power. More AI usage means more demand for GPUs, CPUs, memory and data centers. Companies like NVDA, AMD, INTC and MU can benefit from this long-term trend. AI agents are still developing, so demand could continue growing for years. B is not wrong. Companies like Uber, Airbnb and Schwab have strong businesses. But AI could change how customers access these services, creating some uncertainty. Bottom line: For a 5–10+ year investment, I prefer AI infrastructure. But after a big rally, I would buy gradually, not chase the price.

News and my thoughts from the past week (28Sep2026) Benson's selected items (drafted from his inputs, his fact-check notes applied): 1. Weather and natural disasters across Asia. Typhoon Dujuan swept Japan's Kanto region around 21–23 September, bringing record rainfall, landslides and flooding with a rising death toll, and another storm was intensifying near Okinawa by week's end. Vietnam is still recovering from heavy rain and flooding across its northern and north-central provinces from mid-September, with homes inundated and crops damaged. In Thailand, all 50 Bangkok districts were declared disaster areas after severe rainfall, school closures and disruption to government travel — continued rain raises the risk of worse. In the Pacific, Hurricane Polo is real but its near-term threat is

Preview of the week starting 28Sep2026 - Payrolls, PCE and a coin-flip in Sydney Economic Calendar (28Sep2026) Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com, via Benson) A genuinely live week: two US prints that can move the rates path, one central-bank decision that is too close to call, and China going quiet for Golden Week from Thursday. 1. The RBA decides — and the market has not made up its mind (Tuesday 29 September, 2:30 pm AEST). The cash rate sits at 4.35%. Pricing is roughly 55/45 between a 25 bp rise to 4.60% and a hold; NAB expects the rise this week, ANZ, CBA and Westpac lean to November. The awkward part: August CPI lands on Wednesday, after the vote, so the board decides with July's 3.5% headline (3.6% trimmed mean) as its freshest read. Whichever way it goes, the st

The global semiconductor memory market in 2026 is experiencing an unprecedented structural squeeze. While Big Tech hyperscalers, GPU titans, and cloud providers aggressively absorb massive volumes of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade DDR5, persistent shortages continue to plague the electronics ecosystem. In this article, we would like to offer a comprehensive financial analysis of High-Bandwidth Memory deficits, supply chain bottlenecks, and equity options execution. 1. The Paradox of Abundance: Why Memory Remains Constrained The contemporary artificial intelligence infrastructure boom has fundamentally re-architected the semiconductor demand curve. Hyperscale cloud providers and AI accelerator developers are procuring record volumes of memory silicon. Yet, persistent suppl

Two-Thirds of Future Capacity Sold — Is Memory Becoming Less Cyclical? Memory stocks surged Tuesday, but the more interesting story may be happening underneath the share prices. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$   SanDisk says roughly two-thirds of its FY2028 bits are already covered by new business-model agreements. That is significant because memory has historically been one of the most cyclical parts of semiconductors. What changed? SanDisk says its new agreements with eight customers cover approximately 50% of FY2027 bits and two-thirds of FY2028 bits. The contracts include committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and pricing mechanisms.  That gives SanDisk something memory companies traditionally haven’t had: greater visibility into

This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks. As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week

Monday gave us one of the cleanest tests of the memory rally so far. SanDisk fell roughly 1.4% to around $1,766 after its S&P 100 inclusion became effective. Meanwhile: 🟢 Micron +2.77% 🟢 SK Hynix +0.73% 🔴 SanDisk -1.41% At first glance, that looks strange. If memory is still hot, why did one of 2026's biggest memory winners fall while its peers rose? I think the answer is important: The market may finally be separating the memory-cycle thesis from the SNDK trade. And that changes my Pick Levels. SNDK: The Easy Catalyst Has Expired SanDisk's S&P 100 inclusion created something traders love: a catalyst with a deadline. Index-tracking funds needed exposure. Traders could anticipate those flows. Momentum attracted more momentum. Then came September 21. The inclusion became effective. A

Memory stocks have been one of the hottest parts of the AI trade, but Michael Burry is leaning the other way. Burry has continued to add to his bearish exposure on $Micron Technology(MU), even as DRAM pricing remains firm and AI-related demand stays strong. What makes the trade interesting is the timing: he is not shorting memory because the current fundamentals look weak. He appears to be betting that today’s strength eventually creates tomorrow’s oversupply. That is the core debate in memory right now. The bullish case is straightforward. AI servers need more HBM, more server DRAM and more enterprise SSD capacity. Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure, memory content per server keeps rising, and supply remains tight in several key categories. In that environment, strong pricing

🔥 Two-Thirds of SNDK’s FY2028 Capacity Is Already Sold — This Memory Cycle Is Starting to Look Different The most important number in the memory market right now may not be NAND pricing. It may be two-thirds. SanDisk has already signed New Business Model agreements covering approximately 50% of its FY2027 bits and ~two-thirds of FY2028 bits. These aren’t simple purchase intentions — the agreements are built around committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees and structured pricing mechanisms. That matters because traditional NAND has always been brutally cyclical: Demand rises → manufacturers add capacity → supply catches up → prices collapse → margins compress. But what happens when a substantial portion of future production is already spoken for? 💡 The cycle becomes much more predicta

The indices: three of them, three directions On Tuesday the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 0.45 per cent higher at 27,244.28, up 122.18 points on the day and a second straight close at a record; the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.36 per cent lower at 51,863.69, down 185.14 points, with $Cisco(CSCO)$, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and American Express leading the fallers at 4.50 per cent, 3.35 per cent and 2.62 per cent lower respectively; and the S&P 500 finished at 7,764.64, just 0.06 points below the 7,764.70 it closed at the previous session. That list of Dow f

Hi Tigers 🐯, Welcome to "What The Tigers Say." 👋 Memory led this week's rally as the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed at a record — $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$, $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $SK hynix(SKHY)$ all pushing higher on the back of tightening capacity, with about two-thirds of next year's memory output already sold. But the moves have been messy to read: index flows, cyclical debate, and stock-specific catalysts are all tangled together. Let's rewind to the three sharpest takes from @Isleigh,

Weekly Roundup 1. The Real Focus of the FOMC Isn't the Rate Move. It's the Treasury Yield Curve. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike, so whether asset prices reprice sharply in the near term will hinge on how the Fed frames its future rate path and inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5%, and a decisive break above that level would weigh on both stocks and gold through three channels: valuation discounting, funding costs and risk appetite. What markets are really waiting on is whether long-term yields have peaked. 2. Beneath a Calm Surface, US Stocks Show Signs of Technical Fatigue. Market breadth is fading fast: only about 28% of NYSE-listed stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has slipped be

The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 2.3 per cent higher on Monday at a record, its first since June; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 1.49 per cent higher at 7,764.70, which leaves it 0.4 per cent short of its own record; the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.7 per cent higher. What brought risk appetite back was falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields, and no company put out an announcement that day big enough to move the whole market. The $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ rose 4.3 per cent, a fifth straight session of gains. The distance that opened up

The three US indices closed Friday almost where they started. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.18 per cent to 51,682.64, down 95.40 points on the day; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.17 per cent higher at 7,650.50, up 12.74 points; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 0.39 per cent higher at 26,522.54. It was a triple-witching day, with stock options, index futures and index options all expiring together and an index rebalancing on top, so volume was always going to be heavy. The calm at index level says very little; what was actually happening was money moving between sectors. The split between the indices is par

After rallying in August, gold has pulled back to the midpoint of that advance, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear upper hand. Technically, prices remain confined to the prior consolidation range, leaving room for either a breakout or a breakdown in the near term. The question is not whether gold must rise or fall, but whether post-FOMC macro moves can force a break from the range. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ FOMC Surprise Drives Near-Term Pricing, With Real Yields and the Do

$MU$   Micron Technology (MU) Investment Thesis Micron Technology faces moderating memory price increases as supply and demand rebalance, but AI data center demand remains robust. MU's gross margins are supported by long-term supply contracts, with 40% of revenue soon tied to fixed or capped pricing. Capacity expansions—including Idaho-1, Singapore HBM, and Tonglou—will drive the next growth phase starting FY'27 amid industry-wide supply increases. Key risks include labor negotiations in Taiwan, potential customer inventory build-ups, and margin sensitivity in non-data center segments. Dell (DELL) COO captured this sentiment, noting that some public sector customers have fixed budgets a

Yes, AI security has the ingredients of a major investment theme, but I would separate the theme from the short-term stock price. The key question is whether AI creates enough new security spending to turn today’s headlines into sustained revenue and earnings growth. The recent rotation is logical: as companies deploy more AI agents, cloud workloads and automated software, they also create more identities, endpoints, data flows and attack surfaces that need protection. Recent warnings from AI companies have highlighted the security risks surrounding increasingly capable AI systems. At the same time, cybersecurity companies are reporting strong demand. For my three-stock watchlist, I would look at CrowdStrike (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Fortinet (FTNT) because they give me three d

Recent sharp drawdowns across memory chipmakers and broader Artificial Intelligence (AI) market darlings have unnerved market participants, raising urgent questions regarding whether price-driven growth has reached its structural limits. In this article, we will be sharing how we analyse whether market price-driven growth is fundamentally broken and evaluates the tactical merit of rotating into defensive sectors while waiting for a technology recovery. Key Findings: First, market price-driven growth remains intact but is undergoing a critical transition from "speculative multiple expansion" to "fundamental ROI proof." The sell-off in memory and AI hardware reflects cyclical capacity digestion, elevated consensus expectations, and monetization scrutiny rather than an existential crisis. Mem

The indices closed lower for a second day on Tuesday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 0.45 per cent at 7,585.73, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite down 0.78 per cent at 25,981.57 and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ down 0.63 per cent at 52,093.11. The reason for the fall, though, was not the same one as Monday's. On Monday the market was pricing what four executives had said, which is something that has not happened yet; on Tuesday two things had already produced a result — a Senate motion failed, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached a level it had not touched in nineteen years. The heaviest fall of the day was not in chips but in

U.S. markets showed a striking divergence overnight. As investors worried that calls to slow frontier AI development could eventually cool spending on GPUs, HBM and data centers, semiconductor names came under pressure. At the same time, cybersecurity stocks surged. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler and Fortinet all moved sharply higher. The same “AI risk” narrative was hitting chips while pushing security software into the spotlight. The more important takeaway is not simply that money rotated from hardware into software. The bigger question is whether cybersecurity is becoming a mandatory layer of AI CapEx. Once AI agents start connecting to email, code repositories, databases, CRM systems and payment tools, AI is no longer just reading information. It can call tools, modify files

The market’s greatest challenge this week is that several seemingly independent trading themes are beginning to interact with one another: the yen has reached a six-month high; expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike are building; global bond yields are broadly rising; signs are emerging of a rebound in China’s crude-oil demand; and expectations for Federal Reserve policy have once again been unsettled by comments from Donald Trump. When these variables move simultaneously, markets rarely deliver a clean, smooth one-way trend. Instead, they are more likely to enter a high-volatility, range-bound phase marked by repeated swings in both directions. The key variable to watch now is whether the yen can make a further near-term directional break. This matters not only for the U.S. dollar inde