The divergence in memory stocks—with SK Hynix rising +4.83% while Micron fell -1.61% and SanDisk dipped -0.12%—underlines a market torn between structural supply shortages and emerging competitive headwinds. Fundamental tightness remains compelling as supply deficits expand from High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) into conventional DRAM and NAND, driving inventory levels at giants like SK Hynix and Samsung below ten days. However, the macro narrative faces friction after Kioxia denied merger discussions with SK Hynix and signaled intent to moderate price increases, introducing market share competition that threatens the industry's pricing power. Investors should monitor SK Hynix's low inventory metrics as a proxy for structural AI demand, while exercising caution with U.S. peers like Micron until Kioxia's pricing stance stabilizes market quotes and confirms the supercycle's trajectory.
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- OgdenHerbert·09-10Sub-10 day inventory matters, but the bigger squeeze is HBM packaging capacity. That bottleneck keeps memory tight even before conventional DRAM and NAND fully feel itLikeReport