To The Moon

I. Key Events

August CPI Lands: Rate Hike All But Certain, Market Dips Then Rebounds

August CPI came in at +0.4% MoM (in line with expectations), while core CPI rose +0.3% MoM (above the expected 0.2%). The market is now pricing in a 90% probability of a rate hike at the 9/18 FOMC meeting, and expects two hikes this year. Following the data release, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin all dipped before rebounding — the rate-hike expectation has already been priced in → the negative is exhausted, and the decline has halted. Sell Puts on dips are viable.

Oil Spikes Then Retreats: Breaks $100, Then Falls Back Below

Meanwhile, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures trading limits: intraday opening positions for SC2610 and SC2611 contracts are capped at 800 lots. Note the risk of an oil price reversal (spike-and-retreat + position limits could amplify volatility).

ORCL (Oracle): Q1 Earnings Strong, Stock Surges 7%

Revenue up 30% YoY, with cloud infrastructure revenue surging 121% YoY. The stock has reclaimed the 120-day MA and is trending toward breaking through the 9/18 call wall at 165.

ADBE (Adobe): Q3 Double Beat, But Stock Falls

Revenue and profit both beat expectations, with AI-driven monthly active users surpassing 1 billion. However, due to insufficiently strong Q4 guidance and a lack of market confidence in the outlook, the stock still declined. Strong fundamentals vs. weak guidance — a divergence that warrants near-term caution.

II. Notable Block Trades (Directional Signals)

• SPY (S&P ETF)$SPY 20260925 745.0 PUT$ Current price 757.8, Sell Put, strike 745, expiry 2026-09-25, volume 12,900 contracts, notional $6.69 million — interpretation: betting the rate decision won't trigger a major market decline, with support below 745.

• EWY (Korea ETF) $EWY 20261120 175.0 PUT$Current price 182, Sell Put, strike 175, expiry 2026-11-20, volume 6,418 contracts, notional $6.81 million — interpretation: betting it won't break below 175 by November.

One-sentence read: Both are large Sell Put trades, with institutions placing support below — SPY 745 (about 1.7% below current price) and EWY 175 (about 3.8% below current price). This signals confidence that the market won't drop deeply after the rate decision, consistent with the "buy the dip" theme.

III. Macro Themes (Medium-Term Positioning)

• Anthropic IPO (October): A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact — capital may be reallocated from other mega-caps ahead of the listing; watch for liquidity squeeze.

• SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy Tailwind): Trump Account passive buying continues (7 million accounts already, with the Treasury Department's default investment vehicle being SPYM). The S&P has already risen 3% → structural tailwind. For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

Today's one-sentence approach: The CPI shoe has dropped, and the rate-hike expectation is already priced in → the three major asset classes dipped then rebounded, with the negative exhausted. Institutional large Sell Puts (SPY 745 / EWY 175) are placing support below, and buying the dip is the main theme. Oil spiked and retreated + position limits — guard against a reversal. ORCL is strong with a call wall at 165; ADBE has strong earnings but weak guidance — stay cautious.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the underlying at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.