My Macro View Is Still Bullish, But the Leadership Is Changing
Here’s how I’m currently seeing Macro & Markets:
🌎 Global ex-US Equities
Still bullish on global ex-US equities, both outright and relative to the US.
Valuations remain attractive, technicals are constructive, and the macro backdrop is supportive. Global equity gains have also started to broaden beyond the US, with Asia Pacific among the stronger regions recently.
🇺🇸 US Small Caps
I remain bullish on US small caps.
The valuation gap versus large caps and bonds remains attractive, while macro fundamentals are improving. Positioning and sentiment also remain relatively contrarian, which creates an interesting setup if the technical picture continues to improve.
⚖️ Global / Small / Value vs US / Large / Growth
This is becoming one of the more interesting relative-value themes.
I continue to favor GSV over ULG, with early signs that the long-running leadership gap may finally be starting to turn.
Still early. I’m monitoring this closely for both risks and opportunities.
🛢️ Commodities
Commodities appear to be getting a second wind after what increasingly looks like a normal correction within a broader bull market.
Macro conditions, technicals and sentiment are lining up again, leaving room for further upside.
🌾 Agriculture
I also continue to see upside risk across agricultural commodities.
Valuations are cheap, capex has been relatively light, sentiment is improving and weather adds another potential catalyst heading into the next phase of the cycle.
The bigger picture:
I’m still bullish, but I’m increasingly looking outside the same US large-cap growth leadership that dominated the previous cycle.
Global equities, small caps, value and commodities are where I see some of the more interesting asymmetry developing. 👀📊
The rotation doesn't need to happen overnight.
I just want to be positioned before the market makes it obvious.
When markets keep you watching, knowing when to switch off matters too.
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