Palantir: "Not Really an AI Company" — and Why That Matters
EdgeRunner AI's CEO put it well: Palantir is "an incredible data architecture company." EdgeRunner is the camshaft and Palantir is the engine block. The models plug into Palantir's plumbing, so Palantir doesn't need to win the model race.
Bull case
The Pentagon made Maven a program of record, and users grew from 5,000 to 20,000.
The Army enterprise deal is worth up to $10 billion over a decade.
Full-year revenue is expected to reach about $8.19 billion, up 83%.
Bear case
The stock trades at about 120 times forward earnings.
Maven is under scrutiny after the February 28 Minab strike review. Palantir says it wasn't responsible for the underlying intelligence.
If models move to devices that work offline, some of the value moves with them.
PLTR closed Friday at $189.64, about 8.6% below its record close of $207.52.
How I'd sell puts on it
Trend: The stock sits about 25% above its 200-day average ($151.93), so this gate passes.
Volatility: I check the live chain for IV Rank of at least 40, IV Percentile of at least 45, and implied volatility at least 1.2 times historical.
Calendar: Earnings usually fall in early November. I pick an expiry before the 7-day blackout.
Strike: Using an illustrative 50% IV over 35 days, the one standard deviation floor is about $160. The 50-day average × 0.98 is about $158. When the two anchors land this close, the setup is clean. The delta must be between 0.15 and 0.25.
Size: A $158 put secures $15,800. Palantir is Tier 2, so it's capped at 2% of the account with a 2.5× stop.
The story fits my framework. The entry still has to pass every rule.
Educational only, not investment advice.
$PLTR
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