$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon: great business, heaviest spending cycle ever, and what it means for my sell puts Amazon is the strongest Tier 1 name I've scored so far, and I still won't sell a put on it today. The operating business is excellent. Q2 sales were $200.6B, up 20%, and operating income was $27.5B, up 43%. AWS grew 37%, its fastest since 2021, at a 39.4% margin. That's 21% of sales but about 60% of operating profit. The reported profit is a different story. Q2 net income was $62.6B, but $53.4B of pre-tax income was non-operating, mostly gains on the Anthropic stake. These are real but non-cash and can reverse. Strip them out and Amazon trades at about 31.6× 2026 and 25.1× 2027 earnings, not the 20× on the screen. Cash is the other wa
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ CoreWeave: why my sell-put gates say no I went through my CoreWeave dossier this weekend, and the business and the balance sheet tell two different stories. The business first. Revenue is up 115%, and the contracted backlog (remaining performance obligations) is $103.7B. Customers are signing long deals, so demand is not the problem. The balance sheet is. Obligations are about $87B against roughly $5.0B of equity. Altman Z is 0.30, well under the 1.8 distress line. Interest coverage is −0.12×, so operating profit doesn't cover interest. Current ratio is 0.46. Two customers make up 63% of revenue, and capex runs at 271% of revenue. The model only works if those contracts keep getting funded. I'm not saying it fails, o
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $NVDA Doubled Its Earnings. The Stock Went Sideways. Bargain, or Cheap for a Reason? Yesterday I wrote about AMD: a great chart I can't sell puts on, because one contract ties up more cash than I allow any single name. Today it's the other side of the same trade. NVIDIA closed at $230.86 on Oct 1. That's up about 24% over twelve months. Sounds fine until you put it next to earnings, which more than doubled over the same stretch. When profits double and the price barely moves, the multiple gets cut roughly in half. That's what happened here. The numbers side by side NVDA: about 29x trailing earnings AMD: about 156x trailing earnings NVDA gross margin ~75%, AMD ~54-56% NVDA revenue up 106% last quarter, AMD up 50% The bigger co
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $AMD Passed Every Chart Test I Have. I Still Can't Sell a Put on It. I've run my sell-put checklist on a lot of names this year. Most fail on the chart. Boeing and SoFi were both trading under their 200-day moving average when I checked, and that's an automatic no for me. AMD is the opposite. It's the cleanest chart I've scored all year, and it's still a NO TRADE. The reason has nothing to do with the company. It's arithmetic, and I think a lot of put sellers here are running into the same wall without noticing. Where AMD stands (close Sept 30) Price: $611.76, up 0.69% on the day 52-week high: $639, so about 4% below the top Up roughly 280% in twelve months 200-day SMA around $515, which puts price about 19% abo
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $META Ran 30%+ in September. I'm Selling the $680 Put, Not Chasing the Stock Meta was the loudest name in my feed all month, and for good reason. Muse, its personal AI assistant, launched on Sept 8 and climbed to the top of the US App Store's free charts. Connect 2026 then showed Muse running hands-free on the new Ray-Ban and Oakley glasses. The stock went from the mid-$550s in late August to a 52-week high of $779.82 last Thursday. Piper Sandler, TD Cowen and Canaccord all raised targets this week, into the $865-$950 range. Then Friday reminded everyone that nothing goes up in a straight line. META closed at $751.66, down 3.3% on the day, and slipped another few dollars after hours. I don't want to buy a stock