Burry Is Betting Against AI With an Expiry Date
Michael Burry just moved up his AI crash bet, saying the “bubble in AI may burst sooner than later.”
He closed out his short positions and moved into puts:
• $Micron Technology(MU)$ — June $500 puts, stock around $1,080
• $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ — June puts below $100, stock around $230
• $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ — Sept 2027 puts in the low $400s
• $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ — larger Sept 2027 put position in the low $100s
His thesis points to research questioning how much AI revenue is actually proven, along with warnings that memory cyclicality could return.
I see the setup differently.
1.Memory is cyclical. That hasn’t changed.
But the current environment still looks more like tight supply meeting accelerating demand than an industry at peak oversupply.
HBM supply remains heavily committed, hyperscalers are securing capacity, and memory prices continue to rise.
A true cycle top usually comes with excess inventory, oversupply and falling prices.
We’re not seeing that combination yet.
A $500 MU put requires a massive repricing while the industry is still struggling to keep up with demand.
2.PLTR is still accelerating revenue growth, while adoption is expanding beyond government customers.
Large enterprises are increasingly deploying its AI products, and the commercial opportunity continues to expand.
The question isn't whether AI demand exists.
It’s how long the current growth rate can continue.
3.Nebius is facing the opposite problem from an oversupplied AI market: capacity.
Demand is growing quickly, while the company is racing to build data center capacity and deploy GPUs fast enough to meet customer requirements.
That makes a near-term collapse thesis harder to reconcile with the current demand environment.
And there’s one important detail about Burry’s strategy:
Puts expire.
A short position can remain open indefinitely. A June or September put has a clock attached to it.
That makes timing critical.
Burry has a reputation for being early.
Being early is one thing.
Being early with an expiration date is a very different trade.
For now, I’m watching the actual evidence:
AI demand, memory pricing, HBM supply, cloud capacity, enterprise adoption and revenue growth.
If those start rolling over, the bear thesis gets stronger.
Until then, I’m not betting against accelerating demand simply because valuations are high.
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
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