80,000-Contract TLT Call Block: Have Treasury Yields Peaked?
TLT and Treasury yields typically move inversely, so the surge in yields pushed TLT below 80, hitting historic lows. However, a mysterious options block trade suggests this trend may be nearing a temporary end.
During today's session, someone opened 80,000 contracts of the November 30-expiry TLT call at the 83 strike $TLT 20261130 83.0 CALL$ , with a total notional of about $3 million.
It's possible the buyer simply thought it was too low and saw a rebound opportunity, so they went all in — because $3 million in notional isn't particularly impressive in today's world of A9-level wealth; it only shows that buyers are tempted at this level. Still, nearly 100,000 contracts in volume is enough to sound an alarm for market makers.
Going forward, continue watching whether TLT shows signs of stabilizing.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
$300 million isn't impressive enough — let's look at something that is. Tonight, someone opened 12,000 contracts of the November 6-expiry TSMC 460 call$TSM 20261106 460.0 CALL$ , with a notional value of nearly $25 million.
This not only signals that TSMC's earnings will be strong, but that the entire AI sector is strong. That said, I still prefer OTM call block trades, as they imply a more certain uptrend. In short, AI sector stocks are all Sell Put candidates this earnings season.
Someone bought 10,000 contracts of the Meta 720 put $META 20261218 720.0 PUT$ . I understand the short intent — they believe other AI assistants launching will divert MUSE users, so they're positioning early.
For example, I've seen people say MUSE is inferior to Grok Bot, so MUSE isn't special. But objectively speaking, Grok hasn't even cracked the top ten of the download charts, and its market share is far below MUSE's. And do ordinary consumers really care whether the model is advanced enough when using AI apps? I doubt it. So MUSE has a first-mover advantage in mindshare that may last longer than many expect.
This isn't to say Meta won't fall. Keep watching the download rankings — if MUSE drops or another AI assistant takes the top spot, that wouldn't be a good time to short — it might actually be a good time to Sell Put.
Following yesterday's large 130 Sell Call block, someone sold this week's expiring 128 call $INTC 20261002 128.0 CALL$ , opening 17,000 contracts at a current price of 0.58 — an annualized yield of 58%, which is remarkably high.
Theoretically, the probability of INTC rising 8% in the last two days of this week isn't high. Based on GEX, it will most likely close around 120. But this block trade's opening could shift things slightly. Those eyeing this yield should ideally do Covered Calls against stock holdings — after all, there's no free volatility in this world, and getting squeezed on a naked Sell Call wouldn't be worth it.
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