$SPY Could Be in Trouble If Yields Keep Climbing
⚠️ The bond market is flashing a warning that stocks can’t ignore.
The 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields just hit their highest levels since 2002:
📈 10Y: ~5.33%
📈 30Y: ~5.67%
And here’s the part that gets my attention:
The last time yields were around these levels, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ was in the middle of a 49% crash.
📉 Why are yields rising?
This time, the pressure is coming from several directions:
🔥 Sticky energy-driven inflation
🏦 A Fed that just hiked for the first time in 3 years
💰 Fiscal concerns pushing investors to demand more compensation for holding US debt
Higher long-term yields mean higher discount rates.
And that creates the most pressure on long-duration growth stocks — exactly the AI and tech names carrying the index.
🚨 The cracks are already showing
The S&P 500 still looks fine on the surface.
The average stock doesn’t.
Less than 50% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, down from roughly 75% in mid-August.
That divergence matters.
Index strength is increasingly being carried by a smaller group of stocks.
🎯 Tomorrow is important
The jobs report could determine the next move in yields.
Hot jobs data → more inflation pressure → higher yields → more pressure on growth stocks.
A hot print could push the 10Y toward fresh highs.
👀 Watch yields, not headlines.
The bond market may tell us where stocks are heading before the index does.
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
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