History is encouraging: the S&P 500 has averaged roughly 6.6% in Q4 of midterm years, and has posted positive returns in the 12 months after every midterm since 1950.
But 2026 is different. With the 10-year Treasury near 5.3%, elevated valuations and massive AI capex, rates and earnings may matter more than election headlines.
My focus would be on AI infrastructure, power and defense. A divided Congress could actually be constructive by limiting major policy shocks, while a Republican sweep could favor deregulation, energy and AI infrastructure.
The real trade isn't Republicans vs Democrats.
It's policy uncertainty vs. policy clarity.
For me: A — AI & Technology, but only companies with earnings growth strong enough to survive higher rates.
@WallStreet_Tiger [正经]
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