To The Moon

I. Weekly Market Overview

The biggest variable for U.S. stocks this week is the double test of rate pressure and AI profitability.

Treasury yields and oil prices spiked at one point, increasing pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. After controversy over OpenAI’s annualized revenue figure, the market began asking when massive AI capex would convert into revenue. However, this does not mean AI demand has disappeared — rather, capital is starting to distinguish companies that can truly make money from those that merely benefit from the investment boom.

This week, CPI, bank earnings, ASML earnings, and TSMC earnings will follow one after another. If inflation cools, financials perform steadily, and TSMC maintains a strong outlook, the broader market may regain support. Conversely, if rates continue rising and AI earnings positives fail to lift stocks, the semiconductor pullback could widen further.

II. Weekly Event Calendar

• October 13 (Tue) | JPMorgan (JPM) Earnings: Watch net interest income, credit loss provisions, and management’s view on the economy. If banks expect bad debt to rise, it may reflect growing repayment pressure on businesses and consumers.

• October 14 (Wed) | U.S. September CPI: Focus on core inflation, housing, and services prices. If inflation runs hotter than expected, it could push Treasury yields higher and pressure tech valuations. A softer reading could ease pressure.

• October 14 (Wed) | ASML Earnings: Watch whether new orders remain strong. If orders miss expectations, the market may worry that wafer fab expansion is slowing, dragging down semiconductor equipment stocks.

• October 15 (Thu) | Fed Beige Book: Observe how businesses actually feel about the economy, employment, and costs, and judge whether the economy is cooling.

• October 15 (Thu) | TSMC Earnings: Focus on AI orders, next-quarter revenue outlook, gross margin, and capex, which affect confidence across the semiconductor industry.

III. Event and Volatility Observations

SPY | Index Leans Strong, 785 Faces Pressure

SPY closed at 778.57, above its 20-day MA of 768 and 20-week MA of 757. The short-term trend is strong, but options pressure remains overhead.

This week’s implied range is 770–787, IV 14.34%, historical percentile 3.98%. The stock is in positive Gamma territory. 785 is the Call wall, 770 is the Put wall, and 791 is the largest positive Gamma level.

This week’s watch: 785 is the upside breakout level to watch, while 770 is important downside support. If 785 breaks, watch for a possible extension toward 791.

QQQ | Tech Leans Strong, Watch 760 Breakout

QQQ closed at 751.27, above its 20-day MA of 737.5 and 20-week MA of 720. Tech short-term momentum is strong, but options pressure exists around 760 overhead.

This week’s implied range is 739–764, IV 19.73%, historical percentile 5.18%. The stock is in positive Gamma territory. 750 is the Put wall, 760 is the Call wall, and 769 is the largest positive Gamma level.

This week’s watch: 760 is the level to watch for bullish continuation, while 750 is important downside support. If it breaks below the Gamma flip point at 747.98, watch for changes in the market’s volatility structure.

IWM | Small Caps Under Pressure, Watch the Battle Around 280

IWM closed at 278.94, slightly above its 200-day MA of 277, but still in negative Gamma territory. Small caps are relatively fragile, and 280 is a key battleground between bulls and bears.

This week’s implied range is 274–284, IV 19.91%, historical percentile 12.35%. Both the Call wall and Put wall are at 280, the Gamma flip point is 285.64, and the largest negative Gamma level is 273.

This week’s watch: 280 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line. If it cannot hold, watch for risk of a pullback toward 274 or even 273. If the rebound continues, 285.64 is the key threshold for shifting into positive Gamma territory.

XLF | Financials Wait for Catalysts, 55 Is the Short-Term Gate

Financials lack a clear short-term catalyst. Midterm election uncertainty and a slow recovery in capital markets activity may limit stock performance. However, an improved regulatory environment, loan growth, and capital returns still provide medium-to-long-term support. Among individual names, WFC, STT, and C are worth watching for earnings recovery and capital deployment prospects.

This week’s implied range is 53.4–55.6, IV 19.2%, historical percentile 40.64%. The stock is in negative Gamma territory. 55 is the Call wall, 56 is the Put wall, and the Gamma flip point is 56.39.

This week’s watch: 55 is the short-term rebound level to watch, and 53.5 is a downside risk reference near the largest negative Gamma level. To improve the overall structure, watch whether the stock can move toward the Gamma flip point at 56.39.

TSM | Strong Fundamentals, Stock Faces 459 Pressure

3nm demand is strong. TSMC’s full-year revenue growth guidance may be raised to 40%–45%. Advanced process price increases and capex expansion in 2027 also support medium-term growth.

This week’s implied range is 434–473, IV 33.31%, historical percentile 0.4%. The stock is in positive Gamma territory. 459 is the Call wall, and 440 is the Put wall and a key level near the Gamma flip point.

This week’s watch: 459 is the level to watch for bullish continuation, while 440 is important downside support.

SPCX | High Volatility Continues, Watch 170 Pressure

SPCX closed at 162.57, above its 20-day MA of 154.4 and 10-week MA of 147.4. Short-term momentum is strong, but the options market still reflects high volatility expectations.

This week’s implied range is 154–171, IV 56.2%, historical percentile 73.79%. The stock is in positive Gamma territory. 160 is the Put wall, 170 is the Call wall, and 177.5 is the largest positive Gamma level.

This week’s watch: 170 is important overhead pressure, and 160 is key downside support. In a high-IV environment, watch for rapid price swings and changes in options time value.

NVDA | Stock Approaches Pressure, Watch the 230 Battle

NVDA closed at 229.28, slightly above its 20-day MA of 226.7, and above its 20-week MA of 214. The overall trend remains strong, but the current price is already near the options Call wall.

This week’s implied range is 221–237, IV 39.16%, historical percentile 21.9%. The stock is in positive Gamma territory. 230 is the Call wall, 220 is the Put wall, and 245 is the largest positive Gamma level.

This week’s watch: 230 is the level to watch for a bullish breakout, while 220 is important downside support. If it can hold firmly above 230, watch for the reaction near the upper end of the 237 range.

IV. Institutional Block Trade Tracking

The following is filtered based on trade records provided from October 5 to October 9. Trade direction can only reflect one side of a transaction; a single block trade cannot confirm a complete strategy or an institution’s final position.

【Sell Side】QQQ | 2026/12/18 745 Put$QQQ 20261218 745.0 PUT$ 
70,000 contracts | Notional about $144.41 million | Current price 750.33–750.76
Selling Puts to collect about $144 million in premium reflects that the seller is willing to bear the risk of QQQ falling to around 745.
What the money is betting on: QQQ will not fall significantly below 745 by year-end, or the seller is willing to take assignment at that level.
Key levels: 750, 745. If the broader market continues weakening, still watch lower levels.

【Sell Side】SMH | 2026/10/16 582.5 Put$SMH 20261016 582.5 PUT$ 
5,000 contracts | Notional about $1.825 million | Current price 602.01
A large Put sale appeared in the semiconductor ETF, meaning the seller is willing to collect premium and bet that SMH will not fall significantly below 582.5 before expiration.
What the money is betting on: Semiconductors will not fall significantly below 600.
Key levels: This week, first watch TSMC earnings and whether semiconductors can stop falling.

【Sell Side】IWM | 2026/11/20 262 Put$IWM 20261120 262.0 PUT$ 
7,429 contracts | Notional about $2.0875 million | Current price 275.83
A large Put sale appeared in the small-cap ETF, meaning the seller is willing to bet that IWM will not break below 262 before expiration, or is willing to take assignment at that level.
What the money is betting on: Small caps will not see a major decline.
Key levels: 262 is the strike. The Gamma structure shows 280 is a bull-bear tug-of-war zone. If market risk appetite weakens, watch whether price can hold recent support.

【Buy Side】KRE | 2026/12/18 67 Put$KRE 20261218 67.0 PUT$ 
31,500 contracts | Notional about $4.977 million | Current price 70.61–70.67
Three consecutive large buys of regional bank ETF puts may be betting on bank stocks falling, or buying insurance against financial sector risk.
What the money is betting on: Regional bank stocks may face downside risk.
Key levels: 67 is the Put strike, with the current price around 70.6. If the stock continues falling, watch the market reaction near 67.

【Sell Side】EWZ | 2026/11/20 43 Put$EWZ 20261120 43.0 PUT$ 
40,000 contracts | Notional about $8.16 million | Current price 43.33
A large Put sale appeared in the Brazil ETF. The 43 strike is close to the then-current price, showing the seller is willing to take relatively direct downside risk to collect premium.
What the money is betting on: EWZ will roughly hold 43 before expiration, or the seller is willing to take assignment at that level.
Key levels: 43 is the strike and was near the current price at the time. If it breaks below, watch whether seller assignment risk expands.

【Buy Side】SPCX | 2026/11/20 220 Call$SPCX 20261120 220.0 CALL$ 
5,481 contracts | Notional about $734,500 | Current price 166.04
Buying a far OTM Call bets that SPCX will rise significantly before expiration. This is a high-risk directional speculation.
What the money is betting on: The possibility of a sharp stock price increase.
Key levels: 220 is the strike, about 32% above the then-current price. The stock needs to rise substantially for this trade to gain intrinsic value.

【Sell Side】AMD | 2026/10/30 620 Call$AMD 20261030 620.0 CALL$ 
3,834 contracts | Notional about $9.585 million | Current price 613.41–614.17
Two large Call sales totaled about $9.585 million. The seller may believe AMD’s short-term upside is limited, or may want to profit from relatively high options premium.
What the money is betting on: AMD will struggle to break above 620 before expiration, or short-term volatility will decline.
Key levels: 620. If the stock breaks out strongly, this single trade alone cannot be used to judge that the rally is over.

【Sell Side】CRWV | 2026/11/20 60 Put$CRWV 20261120 60.0 PUT$ 
14,000 contracts | Notional about $1.12 million | Current price 84.49
A large OTM Put sale. The seller bets CRWV will not break below 60 before expiration, collecting premium by taking on downside risk.
What the money is betting on: CRWV will not see a major decline, or there is some assignment appeal near 60.
Key levels: 60 is the strike, about 29% below the then-current price. If AI-related stocks continue to be repriced, still watch downside risk.

V. Weekly Strategy Outlook

Broad Market: Medium-term can lean bullish, but short-term chasing highs is not advisable. SPY remains in positive Gamma territory, but CPI may change rate expectations. If it pulls back to support and stabilizes, watch for signs of renewed strength. If support fails, do not ignore risk just because of historical seasonality.

Semiconductors: Wait for TSMC earnings confirmation. This week’s AI stock decline does not mean the pullback is already over. The key is TSMC’s revenue outlook, gross margin, and capex, as well as whether the stock can hold key levels after earnings.

Financials: Watch the real reaction after earnings. If bank results are solid and credit loss provisions do not deteriorate notably, financials may become support for the broader market. If they still fall after positive news, guard against broader market valuation pressure.

VI. Risk Warnings

1. Inflation and rate risk: If CPI comes in above expectations, it may push yields higher and pressure high-valuation tech stocks.

2. Earnings gap risk: After JPM, ASML, and TSMC report, stock prices may gap across existing support or resistance.

3. Options time value risk: Options lose time value as expiration approaches; being right on direction does not guarantee profit.

4. Volatility risk: Options may become more expensive before earnings due to market expectations. After the event, even if the stock direction is correct, falling IV can still erode premium.

5. Block trade interpretation risk: Trade direction does not equal a complete position. Some trades may involve spreads, hedges, or combo strategies and cannot be directly treated as institutional forecasts.

6. Seller risk: Selling Puts may result in being assigned the underlying, and selling Calls may also face upside risk in the underlying. Collecting premium does not mean guaranteed profit.