The biggest risk isn't simply high valuations, but a market increasingly dependent on a handful of AI giants. Strong earnings justify premium prices, yet even minor disappointments could trigger outsized volatility when expectations become too optimistic.
I wouldn't bet against AI blindly. Instead, I'd watch three signals: earnings growth beyond semiconductors, improving market breadth, and whether equal-weight indexes start outperforming.
If corporate profits spread across sectors, this rally could become more sustainable. If leadership keeps narrowing, the index may look healthy while underlying risks accumulate.
A record high measures price, not market strength. The real test is whether this rally can survive without its biggest winners.
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