$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
Palantir: the best business in my series, at a price I won't sell puts into
Nine days ago I'd have said Palantir was worth more than my gates allowed. Now the stock is above the analyst consensus target, and that settles it for me.
The business hasn't changed since Q2. Revenue was $1.935B, up 93%. US commercial grew 149%, US government 90%, and the adjusted free cash flow margin was 63%. Net cash is $9.2B. My scorecard gives it 77/100, second of eighteen.
The price is what moved. PLTR closed at $209.00 on 12 Oct, up 10.7% in nine days. It sits 2.8% above the 32-analyst target of $203.35, about 45% above OracleValue's $143.98, and at roughly 82× trailing sales. RSI is 76. At a normal 15–20× sales, $502B of market value would need $25–33B of revenue, 3–4× this year's guide. That's possible, but at this price you only earn a normal return if it happens.
My sell-put gates:
Full Green zone, 37% above the 200-day SMA: pass.
IVR 51, IVP 65.5: pass. The print inflates both.
Sizing: pass. A $185 strike needs $18,500, inside my $25,000 cap.
Earnings: fail. Q3 is expected around 2 Nov, so the 20 Nov monthly spans it.
I also had to correct my own earlier read. My 4 Oct note called the zone Amber because I'd used intraday moving averages. On daily data it is Full Green.
The window for the 18 Dec monthly is 10–18 Nov. My two-anchor method gives a $165–175 strike. Assigned there, my net cost is $162–172, which is 12–19% above where I'd want to own it. A put I'd get paid for is a stock I'd be buying too high.
So it's no trade. If you own it, hold and don't add. If you don't, wait.
Personal framework, not investment advice.
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