(Part 5 of 5) - my investing muse (19Oct2026)
5 · My Investing Muse
Our thoughts on the week ahead. We use this section to explore questions, not to offer firm conclusions.
The AI money-go-round
The way money moves around the AI industry continues to concern us. Some attention is now on companies such as CoreWeave. Its co-founders have reportedly sold about $3.3 billion of shares since the 2025 IPO, while the value of their remaining holdings has fallen sharply. Insiders can sell shares for many reasonable reasons. Even so, it is fair to ask whether some are selling now because they expect prices to fall further.
AI/ML as a share of US VC deal value, rising toward ~83% in 2026 YTD — Social Capital / PitchBook-NVCA.
The real bottleneck is physical
AI growth depends on more than computer chips, storage and internet connections. It also needs electricity, water, skilled workers, electrical transformers and a reliable supply chain. These physical resources take time to expand. As some data-centre projects are cancelled or delayed, the pressure may be getting worse rather than better. That is an important concern as earnings season begins.
Read the outlook, not just the beat
An AI-related stock can still fall even if its latest revenue and earnings are better than expected. Investors may care more about what management says about the future than about the quarter that has just ended. The lesson is to look beyond revenue and earnings per share. Pay close attention to company guidance and its view of the market ahead. Could this earnings season start a market correction? It is possible, but the results will tell us more.
Leverage is the fault line
Our biggest concern is debt throughout the financial system. This includes borrowed money used for investing, credit-card balances, household debt, company debt, lower-quality corporate bonds and government debt. Gross US public debt is now above $40 trillion, and many other countries face similar pressure. France is one example to watch. It is the European Union’s second-largest economy, but it is struggling, and street protests may make the problems harder to solve. Trouble in a major economy can affect other countries too.
When the whole system runs on borrowed money, the question is not whether it bends, but where it bends first — and who is standing underneath.
Conflict risk is widening
Military tensions in the Gulf are growing. More ships are being attacked around the Strait of Hormuz, involving Yemen and Saudi Arabia. If this continues, shipping could be seriously disrupted, and more companies may send vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead. We are also seeing increased military transport and reports that US forces may be moving. A wider war is possible, although not certain. Israel and Turkey are another area to watch because both sides have exchanged warnings. These are risks to monitor, not predictions.
Nature is adding to the strain
Weather is adding more pressure. Several named storms have formed across the Pacific, Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Flooding has hit the US, France, Greece and other places, while a large fire is threatening Los Angeles. In Singapore, the haze has returned and could worsen in the coming days, which may hurt tourism and the wider regional economy. El Niño is already affecting growing conditions, so we are watching harvests closely. The risks to farming, supply chains and food availability could increase toward the end of this year and into early 2027.
As always: do our own due diligence. Invest only money we can afford to lose. Avoid leverage at all costs, wherever possible. And this season, given the volatility ahead, we are encouraging readers to hedge.
Executive Summary
The economic calendar is light, but the week still carries many risks. P&G’s results may show whether households can manage another round of price increases. Market charts show that the S&P 500 has fallen below its recent support level while investors are nervous. At the same time, heavy debt, disrupted shipping and difficult weather are adding pressure.
We do not know whether this marks the start of a larger downturn. What we can do is focus on the most useful signals: future guidance rather than whether a company beat expectations, cash flow rather than headline profit, and a sensible plan rather than a bold prediction. It may also be wise to keep some cash available and use protection against market falls where appropriate.
References
Procter & Gamble — FY2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results and investor materials.
Investing.com — P&G financial statements and balance sheet; economic calendar.
Stock Titan — US earnings calendar, week of 19–23 October 2026.
Yahoo Finance — S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily chart.
Barchart — iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) daily chart.
News items in section 4 as attributed in each caption (WSJ, Bloomberg, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, BigGo Finance, and posts on X / Threads).
AI cross-validation
Compiled and cross-validated with Kimi (Moonshot AI), Grok (xAI) and Claude (Anthropic). My Investing Muse: Benson Kong — unedited, as written.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
