To The Moon

$Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF(VTI)$ why I want to take VTi seriously? 

I take VTI seriously because it solves a different investment problem from buying individual stocks like NBIS.

With NBIS, you’re betting that one company will execute exceptionally well in the AI infrastructure market. With VTI, you’re betting that American businesses, collectively, will continue creating value over the long term.

Neither is automatically better. It depends on whether your priority is maximising potential returns or building wealth reliably over time.

1. What exactly are you buying with VTI?

The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) gives you exposure to approximately the entire investable US stock market through one investment.

According to Vanguard’s latest available fund information, VTI holds more than 3,500 stocks and has an annual expense ratio of just 0.03%.

That means you’re investing in businesses such as:

* NVIDIA — AI chips and computing.

* Microsoft — cloud computing and AI software.

* Apple — consumer technology.

* Amazon — e-commerce and cloud computing.

* Thousands of other companies across healthcare, finance, industrials and other sectors.

You don’t need to predict which company will win.

If a small company becomes the next major technology success, it can gradually become a more significant part of the index as its market value grows.

That’s the fundamental appeal of VTI: you don’t need to identify the next NVIDIA in advance.

Official fund information: Vanguard VTI fund profile⁠.

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2. Why I would take VTI seriously, even if I believed NBIS could outperform it

Let’s compare three different approaches.

Factor VTI NBIS A portfolio of individual stocks

Investment thesis US businesses grow over time Nebius becomes a major AI infrastructure company Your chosen companies outperform

Diversification Thousands of companies One company Depends on holdings

Potential upside Broad market growth Potentially substantial Potentially substantial

Company-specific risk Low relative to a single stock Very high Varies

Research required Relatively little Considerable Considerable

Maintenance Minimal Requires monitoring Requires ongoing research

Main risk Broad US market declines Business execution, financing and valuation Picking the wrong stocks

Here’s the distinction I think matters most.

You can be right about a company and still lose money investing in it.

Suppose Nebius grows its revenue dramatically over the next five years. That sounds great.

But if investors initially paid too much for its future growth, the stock might still underperform.

Meanwhile, VTI could benefit from growth across thousands of companies, including businesses that you never considered investing in.

This is why investment quality and business quality are not the same thing.

A great business isn’t necessarily a great investment at every price.

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3. But isn’t VTI boring compared with AI stocks?

Yes, and that’s partly the point.

Imagine you invest $10,000.

Here are three hypothetical outcomes over five years:

Investment Annualised return Value after 5 years

VTI 8% $14,693

VTI 12% $17,623

NBIS 20% $24,883

NBIS -10% $5,905

These are illustrative calculations, not forecasts. They assume constant annual returns and exclude taxes, fees and other costs.

Notice that NBIS has the potential to produce a much better outcome.

But it also carries significantly greater company-specific risk.

The important question isn’t simply which investment has the highest possible return.

It’s this:

Which investment gives you the best chance of reaching your financial goals without taking risks you cannot afford?

If you can identify exceptional companies at attractive valuations, individual stocks can outperform a broad-market ETF.

However, doing that consistently is difficult.

VTI allows you to participate in the broader market without having to get every individual investment decision right.

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4. The biggest weakness of VTI that investors often overlook

I wouldn’t describe VTI as a perfectly balanced portfolio.

It’s diversified across companies, but it is concentrated in the US market and weighted by market capitalisation.

That means the largest companies have the greatest influence on its performance.

For example, Vanguard’s August 2026 holdings data showed NVIDIA at approximately 6.87%, Apple at 6.30% and Microsoft at 5.10% of the fund. Technology accounted for approximately 40.88% of its sector exposure.

This creates three important considerations.

First, VTI isn’t immune to an AI bubble.

If the market significantly overvalues AI-related businesses and subsequently reprices them, VTI could fall substantially.

Second, VTI doesn’t give you much exposure outside the US.

If international markets outperform American stocks over an extended period, VTI could lag.

Third, VTI can still experience major drawdowns.

A diversified stock-market ETF can lose 30% or more during a severe bear market. Diversification reduces company-specific risk, but it doesn’t eliminate equity-market risk.

So I wouldn’t buy VTI under the assumption that it cannot lose money.

I’d buy it because I don’t want my long-term financial future to depend entirely on picking a handful of winning companies.

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5. What if you genuinely believe AI is going to change the world?

This is where I think the combination of VTI and individual stocks becomes interesting.

You don’t necessarily have to choose between broad-market investing and investing in companies you believe will outperform.

Consider three hypothetical portfolio structures:

Strategy VTI Individual stocks Best suited to

Core portfolio 90% 10% Investors prioritising diversification

Growth portfolio 70% 30% Investors seeking additional growth

Aggressive portfolio 40% 60% Investors comfortable with concentrated risk

These are illustrative allocations, not personalised recommendations.

For example, an investor might hold VTI as the foundation and use a smaller portion of the portfolio to invest in companies such as Nebius, NVIDIA or other businesses they believe have exceptional growth potential.

If one of those companies performs exceptionally well, it can materially improve portfolio returns.

If one disappoints, the diversified core helps limit the damage.

There is one important qualification: because VTI already holds large technology companies, buying additional technology stocks increases your exposure to that sector rather than necessarily providing additional diversification.

The objective is to take deliberate risks, not accidentally accumulate the same risk several times.

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6. Would I buy VTI today?

My answer is different depending on what you’re trying to achieve.

If I were building wealth over the next 15–25 years, I would take VTI very seriously as a potential core holding.

Its low cost, broad diversification and exposure to the US economy make it a compelling long-term investment vehicle.

However, I would still consider its current valuation, my existing investments, currency exposure and tax circumstances before investing.

If I were trying to maximise returns over the next three to five years, I would be more selective.

A portfolio of carefully researched individual stocks could outperform VTI, but the outcome would be less predictable.

If I already had a portfolio concentrated in AI stocks, I would consider VTI partly for diversification rather than buying more stocks exposed to the same theme.

And if I needed the money within the next year or two, I wouldn’t assume that VTI was appropriate simply because it’s diversified.

One additional consideration for you

Since you’re in New Zealand, there is a practical issue worth considering before buying US-listed VTI.

New Zealand tax treatment of foreign investments can be materially different depending on your circumstances, including the foreign investment fund rules and applicable thresholds. US estate-tax considerations can also matter when holding US-domiciled investments.

It’s worth comparing VTI with appropriate alternatives available to New Zealand investors before committing substantial capital.

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My bottom line

I take VTI seriously because it allows you to benefit from economic growth without needing to predict the winners in advance.

I take NBIS seriously for a different reason: it offers exposure to a potentially high-growth business that could outperform the broader market substantially.

If I had to choose a starting point for a long-term investment portfolio, I’d generally favour a diversified core before making concentrated bets.

But I wouldn’t automatically put all my money into VTI, either.

The right balance depends on your goals, time horizon and willingness to tolerate losses.