Everyone Is a Genius in a Bull Market. What Happens When Stocks Fall?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
It’s easy to have conviction when everything in the AI trade is going up.
The real test comes when the market turns.
Do you double down? Panic sell? Hold because you believe in the business? Or admit you were wrong and move on?
I took plenty of heat for my bearish stance on neoclouds. Since then, the sector has continued its downward spiral, reinforcing my view that the business model carries risks I’m not willing to take.
I made my choice: I’m not investing in neoclouds.
That decision hurt my performance earlier in 2026. I missed some upside while others were riding the rally.
But it also means I can put capital to work in businesses I have genuine long-term conviction in, while the market is focused elsewhere.
I’ve shared my decisions publicly, both the right calls and the wrong ones. That comes with the territory.
Everyone has to make their own choices. There’s no guarantee my approach will outperform.
But investing isn’t about being loud when everything goes up.
It’s about knowing what you own, why you own it, and whether your conviction survives when the market turns against you.
So ask yourself: When the numbers stop going up, will your thesis still hold?
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
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