To The Moon

1. $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ Reminder that in November 2021 Cloudflare traded for 115x revenue and was growing at 50%+/year. Revenue is up 140% since then but the stock is down 42%. Price matters.Image2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Name a stock that outperformed the market if you bought at 65.7x sales or higher. Go!ImagePS: It's OK to fail.We don't talk about this enough.Risks entail upside.It also involves downside risk.Most businesses fail.That doesn't mean the founders are failures.Embrace failure when it arrives.Learn from it.And try again.

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ I spend a lot of time trying to learn about the companies disrupting Google.Every discussion seems to come back to 2 things:1. Google has the most/best consumer touch points.2. Google has the best infrastructure.I like it at 20x forward earnings. KISSImage2. $Apple(AAPL)$ This business trades for 40x earnings...Image3. $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ The valuation is making my head spin, but how do you sell this business?Image4. $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ SoundHound has a $5.5 billion valuation, is losing money like c

At any time since 2007, when $Netflix(NFLX)$ ’s streaming business launched, a market-crushing thesis could have been “streaming is the future.”I started buying shares of $Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ in 2014 on the simple idea that every police officer should have a body camera and all of that data will likely end up in the cloud (Axon’s cloud). There were bumps along the way, but that simple high-level thesis led to incredible returns.“I like my $Apple(AAPL)$ iPhone” was a pretty good investment thesis going back as far as 2007.I remember sitting in my apartment in 2007 listening to a friend rave about $Lululemon Athletica

Autonomous driving will be top of mind in 2025.Autonomous driving is one of the themes for which I’ve invested heavily in the Asymmetric Portfolio. The second stock I covered was $General Motors(GM)$ , but it wasn’t GM the manufacturer that I was interested in, Cruise is where the 10x opportunity lies.I’m working on a long report on autonomous driving that I’ll publish early next month, but in the meantime, it’s worth updating just how quickly this industry is moving. Autonomous vehicles are here. The business is scaling. And everyone involved is moving as fast as they can to grab a position in the market.Waymo Takes a Big LeadRight now, no company comes close to Waymo (owned by $Alphabet(GOOG)$

One of the best ways for a company to build a strong moat around their business is to commoditize their complements. In other words, increase your power in the market by making sure every supplier, every competitor, and every customer is a commodity.A great business is the most valuable point in a supply chain and there’s rarely more than one point of high value in an industry. If one supplier or customer becomes too large or important, it diminishes your power in the market, and the point of value shifts to that power player.We are seeing these strategic battles play out in artificial intelligence where $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , OpenAI, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ This growth chart isn't exciting, but growing revenue double-digits at this scale is extremely impressive.Image2. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ USDC market cap is up over $5 billion in the past month.Image3. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood's HOOD Incredible Momentum ContinuesRobinhood held its first Investor Day today and released some November data early. Just astounding growth. This is from the filing:ImageAssets Under Custody grew to more than $190 billion (up over 15% from October 2024, up over 100% year-over-year), driven in part by customer Net Deposits of over $5 billion in Novem

U.S. consumers drive 70% of the U.S. economy and are ultimately the economic engine of the world. So, when consumer spending is strong, it’s good for the market.Depending on where you look, you could spin a story of an extremely strong consumer or a weakening consumer on the brink of collapse. The market has landed on the “consumer is strong” side, but I want to show a more complete — and confusing — picture.If you look at $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ , all is well, and growth is picking up.But remember, Walmart is the biggest discount retailer, and it does well when consumers are looking for value.Maybe a better indication of consumer sentiment is $Target(TGT)$ ? And they’re showing weakness, including a poor quarter a

1. $General Motors(GM)$ Up 108% over the past year.Still trading for just 6x earnings.MASSIVE upside from Cruise (which no one is talking about)Image2. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Over the past three years, Hims & Hers has a 75.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).Image3. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ For 22x earnings, you get the world's dominant search engine, YouTube, a cloud provider growing 30%+ per year, AND Waymo!ImagePS: It's OK to fail.We don't talk about this enough.Risks entail upside.It also involves downside risk.Most businesses fail.That doesn't mean the founders are failures.Embrace failur

There are values in any market.At times like this, they’re just hard to find.We’re in the “hard zone” today as the stock market bounces near all-time highs, and FOMO (fear of missing out) has hit everything from AI stocks to meme coins.I’m seeing fewer opportunities today than I have in years, even in companies I like long-term. The business matters, but as a buyer, so does the price I pay.But some values do exist.There’s one simple way to know if a stock is a great value for long-term investors. Is management aggressively buying back shares or not? If they are, it’s time to pay attention, and I’ll give two great examples of using buybacks as a weapon against an undervalued stock.The Dangers of High ValuationsLet’s start on the bubbly side.Stocks that get the most attention in the media ar

1. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Based on trends so far in Q4, Coinbase will report the best trading quarter since December 2021.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ Financial services are growing at a 100%+ pace right now. What's to stop the momentum?ImageAt the same time, I'm not optimistic about cable's future.$Comcast(CMCSA)$ It's hard to overstate how quickly cable is declining.I think fall 2025, when ESPN goes over the top, will be the end.ImageInvesting Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors.Image