To The Moon

The big news late last week was $Netflix(NFLX)$ agreeing to buy $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ studios and streaming assets. The cable networks will go into their own publicly traded zombie companies, but the good assets are going to Netflix — assuming regulatory approval.It’s pretty clear why Netflix wants these assets, and I don’t think it’s for the reason most pundits think. If you look at the Smiling Curve and where companies want to be, Netflix has already won in the top right.What it’s worried about is this middle section. Netflix is worried that Paramount, WBD, and Peacock will merge, creating another competitor that’s worth caring about.As it stands right now, $

One of the things I try to do is understand why things have worked out the way they have in the past.I’ve written a lot about how formerly strong brands like $The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ , $BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD.(BDWBY)$ , and $Coca-Cola(KO)$ have lost their power position, as limited shelf space that drove supply’s advantage shifted in an internet world of unlimited shelf space.But where are the opportunities?A simple screen of the stocks that have generated a 25% compound annual return (25.9% is a 10x in 10 years) shows that most of the big companies on the list were household names a decade ago. And yet, they still generated huge returns.Even if we loo

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. The biggest winner in streaming today is probably ESPN/Disney.There was a real threat that Paramount Skydance would be a big player in sports after the $7.7 billion UF

One of the reasons I default to “never” selling stocks is that we never know when a stock will move higher or what will drive the move.I try to find companies that can compound revenue and earnings over a long period of time because that long-term view is our advantage over the market. But that doesn’t mean the ride will be a straight line higher.Take $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ as an example. The stock has been an incredible performer over the past two decades.But to realize those gains, you would have had to ride out drops of over 80% multiple times.How does selling play a role, even when we own phenomenal long-term stocks?Something Has ChangedIf the thesis on a stock I own has changed, it might be time to sell.I did this with previous Asymmetric Investing s

I think investors' misunderstanding of the autonomy market (valuing $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ etc like tech companies) comes down to software vs hardware.In software, you can ship something that's not perfect. But you build a user base and make it better over time, which is a flywheel of users and resources and distribution...ohh my! In hardware, you get one shot to get it right. If you design a plane that costs $1 per mile, but it crashes 5% of the time, you have no customers. A plane that costs $100 per mile but never crashes wins the market.In autonomy, safety is first. Pass that safety bar, and we can start t

While hedge funds may blow up on a regular basis, they have an incentive to do so.Hedge fund managers make money based on the returns they generate for their investors. And they attract money based on outsized returns that attract attention. Just beating the market by a narrow margin each year isn’t enough.Put it this way, it’s in a hedge fund’s interest to bet on “Red” at the roulette table and have a 49% chance of doubling their money and a 51% chance of going bust. The upside of having a 100% return year is potentially 10x-ing the size of your fund. Go bust, and they can start over again.Our personal portfolios don’t work that way.But avoiding going bust is relatively straightforward.Avoid LeverageNearly every investing horror story starts with leverage.Margin is what wipes out investor

Results are in, and I think this product could be huge for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ . 5 Takeaways1. Faster than going to a doctor.2. More transparent data (democratizing access to data). 3. Lower cost.4. Opens new verticals for HIMS.5. Deepens relationship and adds value beyond subscriptions. Ex. I may start using $HIMS recipes to improve nutrition. I didn't know they had that until yesterday. Exercise next? It's all about aggregating demand. And aggregating demand comes from adding value to users. HIMS does this in spades with labs. Excited to see what's next. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as

Here's what I mean by "needs more scrutiny". $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's inventory falls when demand starts picking up in a cycle. In 2023, ChatGPT is exploding and GPU demand is off the charts, so inventory days (green below) drops. NVIDIA's inventory typically builds as the rate of growth slows. But there's a lag from the build of inventory to the drop-off in growth to historically eventually negative revenue growth.The reason this is important is the orange line, which is gross margins (pricing power). NVIDIA's high profits are driven by high margins. If inventory rises and pricing power falls, margins fall as well.Maybe the cycle continues, maybe it doesn't. But it's something you should consider given the regular drawdowns of 50%+ that NVIDIA goes thr

I was one of the first people to sign up for $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ lab testing when it was announced last week.I quickly scheduled a time to get my labs done and broke the bank with the $499 advanced plan. It’s research, after all.Signup and Pre-LabsAs you would expect, signing up for Labs is a straightforward process. Hims & Hers is a typical modern tech company, and with a few clicks, I had paid for and scheduled my labs. I already had an account, so I had a bit of a head start; however, I think the setup process for an account took less than five minutes.Needless to say, this was easier than going to a doctor’s office.The app’s homepage then displayed all the necessary information about my appointment (I cropped some of the pe

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of