To The Moon

1. $Apple(AAPL)$ All of Apple's hardware segments are in decline.P/E ratio 35x!ImageImageImageImage2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Does price matter?This is Microsoft's return from 1999 to 2014.This is a reminder that multiple expansion is a tailwind and multiple compression is a headwind. Image3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Robotaxis coming in June. 245 miles between critical disengagements today means FSD only needs to improve about 1,000x in the next 3 months.Image4. $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ One of the reasons I like Mobileye is the clear opportunity to 10x revenue.They could go from $50-$100 in revenue per vehicle to $2,500+ befor

Is Nike $Nike(NKE)$ a turnaround story?Why risk it when there are very clear growth stories from On $On Holding AG(ONON)$ and Hoka $Deckers Outdoor(DECK)$ staring us in the face?Yes, they're big brands, but they could grow 25% per year for a decade and still not be as big as Nike's shoe business is today.Image

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ 's underappreciated subsidiary is scaling fast and building a lead over competitors.Waymo’s Rise to the TopThe market still seems to think $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is in the lead in autonomy and Waymo, which is majority owned by Alphabet , is well behind because it has higher costs and uses “expensive” technology like LiDAR in its vehicles.Waymo’s vehicles are indeed expensive, but 30 years ago mobile phones were held in bags and cost as much as a mortgage payment.History tells us that proven technology will get significantly lower cost as it scales. And Waymo has proven the technology and is starting to scale.Today, Waymo operates

On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in search/mail $Apple(AAPL)$ in hardware $Uber(UBER)$ in ride-sharing $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in retail $Intuit(INTU)$ for taxesMoats don't look like they did in the 80s and 90s.Great companies are built by people who push boundaries.Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price.If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment

Inflation is the boogie man of the moment in financial media and it’s been that way for 17 years.Quantitative easing, the rise of Bitcoin, and the idea of “sound money” — whatever that is — has led a lot of people to think the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are somehow screwing us over with inflation and the U.S. dollar is somehow junk.But the Fed has an inflation target of 2% long-term for a reason.Why does the Fed want inflation?The simplest answer is to think about the counterfactual. If you’re anti-inflation, you must be pro-deflation!What happens in a deflationary environment? A dollar buys more in the future than it does today. The incentive is to put off spending.This leads to less consumer spending. Less economic activity.It leads to the hoarding of money.Just ask Michael

A few reasons $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ stock could continue a downward spiral.1. Weak deliveries in Q1.2. No robotaxi launch in June.3. Key employees leave. This is key, but most options granted after Jan 1, 2021 are now underwater. Stock is a great employee retainer...but not when the stock is dropping.When operations don't match expectations it can be a rapid downward spiral that feeds on itself. Autonomous driving. Now robotics. Elon Musk writes a $6 billion check to Jensen Huang for chips to build xAI and Jensen turns around and destroys Tesla’s business.That's what I see at Tesla today.

Will there be a recession in 2025?Are tariffs going to destroy the economy?Is this a dip we should buy or the start of a bigger pullback in the market?There are a lot of unknowns in today’s market and no clear answer about the future from data points like earnings, inflation, and broader economic surveys. Whenever I’m convinced a recession is imminent, another data point shows the opposite.Cash is again extremely important for companies in this land of uncertainty. Those with flexibility on their balance sheets can not only weather a storm, but they can also position themselves to emerge stronger than ever.Today, I’m going to dig into their net cash position and free cash flow this week and why cash should be a focus in today’s market.The market overall had a volatile week and is still dow

In January 2005, I started my first full-time job as a Project Engineer at $3M(MMM)$ ’s largest manufacturing plant in Hutchinson, MN. If you’ve bought a roll of Blue Tape, Post-It Flags, or have a smartphone (a half dozen 3M films live in the screen you’re looking at now), you have probably interacted with something made in this plant.20 years later, what’s embedded in my brain is how automated the plant was back then. Automated vehicles were driving around pallets, there was a football-sized automated warehouse with 100 feet of racks for product, and a 6-foot-wide piece of paper would turn into thousands of rolls of tape in boxes without anyone touching them.Automation has been here for a lot longer than many people realize. Humanoid robots today

An AI Thing I Think I KnowRobots (humanoid and other) are rapidly becoming commodities.There's no network effect, no 2-sided market, no aggregation in AI or robotics.In other words, this is an INCREDIBLY impressive technology that will be a TERRIBLE business for most.The best investors are on a constant learning journey.Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.Learn, implement, repeat.

On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in search/mail $Apple(AAPL)$ in hardware $Uber(UBER)$ in ride-sharing $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in retail $Intuit(INTU)$ for taxesMoats don't look like they did in the 80s and 90s.Companies with strong balance sheets that can buy back stock opportunistically over the next 12-18 months will likely crush the market.The best trade is not to trade at all