To The Moon

There’s a fine line between charging a premium because you can and acting like a mobster to your customers. $Apple(AAPL)$ can charge a premium because people value their products more highly than competitors. On Shoes can charge a premium because it has a premium shoe brand among dozens of other choices. $Ferrari NV(RACE)$ can charge whatever it wants because…it’s Ferrari. That’s pricing power. The POWER is in the consumer’s CHOICE to pay more. Then there’s extortion pricing. Extortion is about power, but it’s about POWER over a customer that has NO CHOICE. Extortion is the crime of obtaining money, property, or services through coercion, threats, or the misuse of official power. Google This is impor

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. When you see a person/group very bullish on a stock, it's easy to brush it off as a "meme" or "crazy". It's more profitable to ask yourself why they might be right

Why Everything In the Market Just Changed Debt will fuel the next phase of the market, for better or worse. The AI buildout has been driving the market in incredible ways over the past three years. Memory has exploded, fabs are going vertical, and equipment-makers are on a massive hot streak. S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ heat map over the past year. What’s unique about this moment is the scale of the value the market has put on all things AI. 45% of the S&P 500’s value is in AI-related stocks. And those stocks aren’t cheap. Over half of the S&P 500 trades for over 10x sales. This is something I’ve been concerned about for a while, but it’s taken a turn recently. Why? Debt at an unprecedented scale is now involved. More on that in a mom

$Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ ’s Gambit Mobileye is going to own robotaxis, which is a big risk. Mobileye made one of the most surprising announcements in the market this week. Instead of waiting for customers to adopt its Level 4 robotaxi software and hardware solutions — continuing the modular business model it’s been using for years — Mobileye is making its own robotaxi vehicle and ride-sharing app. Mobileye isn’t abandoning its old business model, but it is bolting on a high-risk vertical integration model. Upon further review, this makes a lot of sense, even if it’s not being done from a point of strength. Mobileye’s current business model is selling autonomy hardware and software to automakers, which is ultimately reliant on OEMs for demand.

When $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ stock dropped to under $15 early this year the company was reviled for being untrustworthy and a one-trick pony in compounded GLP-1s. Those times of panic were an opportunity for long-term investors to understand the strategy and why AndrewDudum would do seemingly crazy things that upset Big Pharma. That’s what the two articles I wrote in those moments explained. But few went through the exercise of understanding Hims strategy or what the potential outcomes of a patent lawsuit really was. For those of you who read Asymmetric Investing in those brutal months and stayed invested or doubled down (like I did in the Asymmetric Portfolio) its days like this that show why research and conviction matter. Drowning o

The Week Ahead Here’s what I’m watching. The market has been in a strange place the past few weeks. Stocks seem to rise or fall rapidly depending on posts about negotiations with Iran, a fight that didn’t need to happen and has had little impact on the global economy, despite fears to the contrary. AI spending keeps rising, despite companies saying they aren’t seeing an ROI. And with all of my skepticism about certain segments of the market, earnings have been solid. So, here’s what I’m watching this week: Iran Peace Rate Cut Hope AI in Politics Valuations More on that in a moment. What I’m Watching It’s a light earnings week, so here’s what I’m watching most closely. Iran Peace Deal Markets are surging this morning after President Trump announced a deal with Iran that would open the Strai

Before I get to the SpaceX IPO, I’m going to be doing my regular State of the Portfolio series starting tomorrow. I hope this helps show what I do, and don’t, like about the stocks in the Asymmetric Portfolio today. After a rough start to 2026, my regular reviews have me liking the long-term trajectory of most companies, and valuations are compelling, but that doesn’t mean the market agrees with me. That will be going to premium subscribers and will be completed in a series of articles over the next few days. Now, on with my thoughts on SpaceX’s IPO. The SpaceX IPO $SpaceX(SPCX)$ is going public on Friday with a stock price of $135 per share and a market cap of $1.77 trillion. To be honest, this is one of the wildest IPOs I’ve ever seen. The debat

According to Cox Automotive, EV sales have dropped dramatically in the past 2 quarters (no surprise with the tax credit gone) in the U.S. What's interesting is that $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ and $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ are increasing supply in a market that's seeing demand destruction and interest rates are rising, putting further pressure on prices and demand. Why would buyers suddenly have interest in these EVs when they're trending to ICE vehicles already? It's a mix I wouldn't want to own. Disclosure: Short RIVN via long-term puts. I know, I know, I'm the Rivian hater. But come on! No one buying an SUV wants rear wheel drive! This makes it unusable anywhere it snows. Realistically, the R2 starts

The answer may shock you. One of the best quotes about valuation I’ve ever seen came from Sun Microsystems’ CEO after the dot-com crash. At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. Zero costs. Zero R&D. Zero taxes. Zero employees. What were you thinking? Sun Microsystems CEO Scott McNealy How much of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is trading for this crazy valuation today? The answer may shock you. I’ll get to that in a moment. Stock Valuations This post from Thierry was what had me digging into valuations today. It’s true that we’ve normalized 10x price-to-sales multiples, but as long-term investors, we shouldn’t because it’s extremely difficult to live up to that valuation.

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ raising $85 billion at peak hype is brilliant. They can now watch competitors scrounge to either dilute with equity or watch rising debt costs eat their business. I wouldn’t want to be a neocloud up against that beast. The Asymmetric Portfolio has been underperforming the market all year because I have no semi/memory/chip exposure outside of $GOOG. Frankly, I'm not buying the bubble. BUT now that we have a big selloff in bubbl-y stocks, I'm up 2% and the market is down 1%. Time will show the slow and steady approach of buying great companies at reasonable prices will win. FOMO has a bad connotation for a reason. On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day.