Travis Hoium

    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·11:07

      GOOG, GM and ABNB Will Surge Upward

      1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ If the recent uptick in revenue growth continues, I think Alphabet is the best big tech stock today.Image2. $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ Airbnb doesn't get enough credit for being an incredibly efficient company. This is a great example of operating leverage at work.Image3. $General Motors(GM)$ As a U.S. citizen, I hate this. As a GM shareholder, I love this! https://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1811779099263717679
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      GOOG, GM and ABNB Will Surge Upward
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·07-12 08:30

      The stock market is at all-time highs but the data tells a different story

      I am inclined to be an optimist about the stock market in general, but today’s market has me questioning what’s ultimately driving new market highs this year.Artificial intelligence is clearly a winner on the market and big tech has benefitted the most (as you can see below), but other parts of the market are falling behind. $Nike(NKE)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ $McDonald's(MCD)$ $Etsy(ETSY)$ are just a few of the names that have struggled in 2024.Why are markets hitting all-time highs as consumer data gets weaker and earnings warnings get stronger?Why Stock
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      The stock market is at all-time highs but the data tells a different story
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·07-10 19:24

      Earnings Season Mini-Preview

      Earnings season begins this week.The stock market has had a great year in a lot of ways in 2024. You can see below, markets are up, although gains are heavily weighted to the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ and the biggest of the big tech stocks.Everything AI has zoomed higher. We don’t yet know if that’s speculation or something real, but I’ll get to that below.The Asymmetric Portfolio continues to suffer from a lack of exposure to big tech. I think that will be a wise allocation of resources long-term as many big tech companies (Apple in particular) see stocks rise from multiple expansions and not earnings growth. And I’m not buying into the AI bubble I see forming, which may be right long-term but hasn’t been short-term. Earnings season will tell us a lot abo
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      Earnings Season Mini-Preview
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·07-09

      Disney's Comeback Is Gaining Momentum

      A year ago, $Walt Disney(DIS)$ ’s stock was almost toxic to investors. The company was bleeding money in streaming, cable was losing subscribers, and debt was becoming a huge problem as interest rates rose.Since then, Disney has reported a sharp rise in free cash flow and streaming is now profitable (barely). Cable is still dying, but it’s still generating cash flow. Shares are only up 14.8% since the spotlight, which lags the market, but the business has turned a sharp corner and the growth strategy is playing out nicely.Then there’s the recent hit Inside Out 2, which has a chance to be the highest-grossing movie of 2024.Despite the media narrative that Disney’s studios are out of touch and its streaming service is getting crushed by
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      Disney's Comeback Is Gaining Momentum
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·07-03

      TSLA Truth - Deliveries continue to drop and margins will too

      $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ HEADLINE: Deliveries of 440,000 BEAT estimates of 438,000! TRUTH: Deliveries continue to drop and margins will too. Important context: Deliveries were DOWN 5% and production was DOWN 14%.I'm not sure why Fintwit is excited about these trends, but this is the market we're in.ImageWhat indication is there any significant growth is on the horizon though? Capacity isn’t being built. Models aren’t being introduced/refreshed.Robotaxis are…not here. I just don’t see why Tesla is worth 10x-20x competitors if it’s losing share.Q2 Deliveries $General Motors(GM)$ UP 1% $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ DOWN 5%Stocks reaction $Gener
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      TSLA Truth - Deliveries continue to drop and margins will too
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·06-29

      Disruptive vs Sustaining Innovations

      As investors, we often use “disruption” willy-nilly as shorthand for a technology or product that could grow faster than incumbents or generate better returns than an incumbent. And those descriptions are often incorrect.Examples like electric vehicles disrupting the legacy auto industry, direct-to-consumer brands disrupting CPG brands, or solar energy disrupting utilities aren’t actual disruptions.They’re evolutions or innovations within a business or market, but not disruption. If they were disruptions, the incumbents would fade into obscurity the way newspapers and mainframe computers have.If we use Clayton Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma” framework, disruption has a very distinct definition. He described disruptive and sustaining innovations like this.Disruptive innovations:Crea
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      Disruptive vs Sustaining Innovations
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·06-28

      My biggest lesson of the last decade was about diversification

      My biggest lesson of the last decade was about diversification. I used to bet BIG on one or two ideas, which brought in lots of uncertainty out of my control.Now, I hold 20+ stocks.Today, $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ dropped 11%, but I'm beating the market by 0.4% because I'm diversified.Compounding $100 at 20% for:1 Year: $1203 Years: $172.805 Years: $248.8310 Years: $619.1720 Years: $3,833.7630 Years: $23.737.63"The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily." - Charlier Mungerhttps://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1806406872729014365
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      My biggest lesson of the last decade was about diversification
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·06-28

      HIMS is a net positive in an absolute nightmare healthcare system

      Shares of $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ are down 11% at the open of trading on what I would call a "journalistic short report". Hunterbrook dubs itself a "investigative and global reporting" site, but it's ALL negative reporting about disruptive technologies/companies and they happen to have an investment arm that's SHORT HIMS.That doesn't mean it's wrong, but the context is always important. Even the headline uses "shady supplier" and "not FDA approved" so there's clearly a slant.Is there merit? OF COURSE! Claim 1: HIMS GLP-1 is a "knockoff" and uses a "loophole" to sell them. Truth: Kind of. The image below is from the FDA. Compounded forms of GLP-1 are legal while approved medications are in a shortage. That could last for years.It seems
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      HIMS is a net positive in an absolute nightmare healthcare system
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·06-27

      The Smiling Curve - One of my favorite investing concepts

      This curve explains how Google won search, why Netflix won streaming, and why I think some unloved stocks have 10x potential. Why a smile? The smiling curve doesn't really begin as a smile. It starts with a typical scale curve. In most businesses, there's some kind of benefit to scale. And in a lot of businesses where scale has an advantage, only one or two winners emerge. ImageThis is why Jack Welch wanted to be #1 or #2 in every market they were in. If you're #3 or lower, profits evaporate. This scale chart works on a local scale and a global scale. Why is there ONE major newspaper in most cities and towns? Let's walk through it: If 5 newspapers start in a city there will be some kind of differentiation. Let's say, Winning Times attracts the best sports reporter. As a result, Winning Tim
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      The Smiling Curve - One of my favorite investing concepts
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·06-27

      Bullish Momentum Builds: DIS, ONON, CELH and HIMS Will Surge Upward

      1. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ In its first 10 days in theaters, Inside Out 2 generated $356 million in domestic box office.The top movie of 2023 -- Barbie -- generated $351 million in 10 days and was fading fast.Can it do over $1.5 billion globally?Image2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ 60% gross margins are insane for a shoe company.why is the share price flat? No, It's up 27% in a year...Image3. $Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ The % of revenue Celsius gets outside of the U.S. rounds to zero.Image4. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ # of subscribers$ per orderUP AND TO THE RIGHT!Imagehttps://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1806009224402530673
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      Bullish Momentum Builds: DIS, ONON, CELH and HIMS Will Surge Upward
       
       
       
       

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