To The Moon

The blockchain and stablecoins are going to disrupt finance. And Stripe just put down a $1.1 billion bet on how they think the industry will play out.I’ve been bullish on the blockchain for years, but we’ve been in an exploratory phase of what exactly blockchain disruption means. Will payments go to the blockchain? Are loyalty programs moving to the blockchain? Will real-world assets be on the blockchain? Are NFTs a thing?The future isn’t in focus yet, but it certainly seems bright, and arguably the biggest name in payments made a $1.1 billion deal this week to become a leader in stablecoin payments.I followed that up last month with this piece on stablecoin growth and $19.9 trillion in stablecoin transactions over the past 12 months, according to $Visa(

In the 18 months since the spotlight was written, I’ve come to LOVE $General Motors(GM)$ ’s core business and how management is running it. Today’s Q3 2024 results show exactly why.Revenue was up 10.5% to $48.8 billion!Adjusted automotive free cash flow was $5.8 billion!Full-year earnings guidance was increased by $0.50 to $10.00 to $10.50 per share in earnings.This is in a DOWN market for the auto business.But let’s put the company’s competitive position into some context:GM has a 64% market share in large SUVS — THIS IS WHERE THE MONEY IS MADE IN THE AUTO BUSINESS!GM has a 44% market share in full-size trucks.GM’s EV market share in the U.S. has gone from 6.5% to 9.8% in JUST 1 QUARTERS!In my GM earnings preview, I said:I want to see that GM’s rhe

1. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ I love Spotify stock because it has a great core (premium) with optionality to grow in advertising.Building an ad exchange with The Trade Desk as an initial partner is a huge win. Can ads revenue 10x in the next decade?Image2. $General Motors(GM)$ Shares are up 8.2% in early trading after earnings and the stock STILL trades at 5x earnings.Unpopular, but profitable!GM expects to buy back ~11% of the shares outstanding by "early 2025"!ImageGM is looking for partners to help fund Cruise. Strategic partners are all that makes sense since GM has the cash to do it themselves.Is a deal with $Uber(UBER)$ coming?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Auto balance sheets are complicated, but this is interesting. Tesla's net cash after pulling out debt, unearned revenue, and net payables is only about $7.6 billion.ImageI don't see a lot of positive news until FSD becomes...fully autonomous.Model 3/Y are aging.Cybertruck is a dud.All of their resources are going into Optimus and FSD/Robotaxi. If those work, great, but the results in the meantime will probably continue to decline.Elon Musk's true superpower is turning an army a followers into subject matter experts who just happen to think EXACTLY the same thing he does about AI, politics, scaling, robots, manufacturings, etc.

1. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Why is Spotify stock up 155% in the past year?Margin improvement explains a lot of the market's sentiment shift.Image2. $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ Who is making a profit on autonomous driving today? Mobileye may be the only one.Who did I miss?Image3. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ New high! I love owning businesses that have a profit line going up and to the right.Image4. $Verizon(VZ)$ Earnings will be released on Tuesday at 7:00 a.m. ET. Wall Street expects: Revenue: $33.44 billionEPS: $1.18FCF: $6.0 billionHere's a look at historical results and estimates for the next year.Image

Why do stocks go up or down?As for this week, the market was up once again. Momentum keeps rolling, and as we begin earnings season, it’s good to see positive reactions to early results. This week, things kick into gear with companies like $General Motors(GM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Verizon(VZ)$ $American Airlines(AAL)$ $United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$ reporting third-quarter results.The 4 Reasons Stocks Go UpBroken down to their basics, there are four — and only four — reasons stocks go up.Revenue growthMargin expansionMultiple expansionStock buybacksEverything else is a subset of one

When $Walt Disney(DIS)$ signed an 11-year TV and streaming rights deal with the NBA for $2.6 billion per season — up from $1.5 billion per year in the previous agreement — the numbers seemed eye-popping. Not only was Disney nearly doubling what it was paying the NBA, it was giving up about 20 regular season games in this deal and betting on a league with declining viewership.Why make such a frivolous investment?The logical answer was that Disney is betting on live sports to drive ESPN over-the-top subscriptions, which will launch in fall 2025. I have argued Disney’s bundling of Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN over the top could lead to a differentiated position in streaming, starting the flywheel that will give Disney a top two — and maybe #1 — position in

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud has grown at a 35.2% CAGR since 2020.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ Rapidly transitioning from bank -> banking technology company.Image3. $General Motors(GM)$ GM expects to be under 1 billion shares outstanding by early 2025.Image4. $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ Share count CAGR is NEGATIVE 13.4% over the past three years.Image5. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Coinbase's non-exchange business is becoming a pretty big business.Image

1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood makes most of its money from "net interest revenue" like margin accounts and (now) credit card balances.Image2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google's AI Overview is the most useful AI product I've used.And it's built right into the default browser I already use for free.I don't see how startups beat the incumbent. Long GOOGPS: Valuation determines how your stocks will perform if you're right or wrong.I try to buy as much upside as possible for a reasonable price.Ex. Do you want?A: Company growing 40%/yr trading for 4x salesB: Company growing 20%/yr trading for 10x salesFaster growth and lower multiples allow for more positive

1. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Coinbase's non-exchange business is becoming a pretty big business.It’ll be interesting to see how COIN evolves into bonds and other illiquid instruments. That could be huge for them. Can’t come soon enough. So many potential asset classes.Image2. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ I understand the consternation about GLP-1s, but they're ~1-2% of ttm revenue. The 75% CAGR over the last three years is from providing products people want at a price they're willing to pay.Image3. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Why are ASML bookings dropping if AI has infinite demand for high-end chips? I genuinely want to know how to square the two.