To The Moon

The key question for all three: can earnings growth drive future upside while valuations expand? $GOOG, $DUOL, and $NFLX offer three different answers. 1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Analysts are expecting Alphabet's operating cash flow to nearly double over the next 2.5 years. 2. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Everyone has to learn Chinese if Kimi takes over or what? 3. $Netflix(NFLX)$ $NFLX was $86 when I posted this. Getting closer to a buy after this drop. At some point, Netflix will be an amazing buy. But at 38x FCF, I don't think a company growing revenue in the mid-teens is in "no-brainer" territory yet. PS： Investing Over-Simplified If you can explain how the stocks you own

$Uber(UBER)$ is expanding its business again, this time into more markets for delivery with the acquisition of Delivery Hero. From Uber: Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) has entered into a business combination agreement with Delivery Hero, extending the world’s largest mobility and delivery platform to a total of 99 markets, with combined pro-forma Gross Bookings of $236 billion in 2025. Under the terms of the voluntary takeover offer, Uber will offer Delivery Hero shareholders cash consideration of €41.50 per share (the “Offer Price”), representing an Equity Value1 of $14.8 billion (implied for 100% of the company), or $13.7 billion adjusted for Uber’s prior stake purchases. Delivery Hero has entered into a separate agreement with SSW Partner

From Disney's enduring moat to Micron's valuation debate and GM's economic warning, these three charts highlight the themes investors should be watching right now. 1. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Understanding Disney is about understanding the parks business. What's the magic? Why are parks a generational experience? Why is Disney World better than Universal, even though Universal is new?!? Understand that and you'll get what drives Disney and will for decades. 2. $Micron Technology(MU)$ Built a simple model on fiscal_ai valuing Micron. 2028 and 2029: EBIT Magin: 50% (above historical average) CapEx/Revenue: 15% (below historical average) Implies an 80% downside from here. 3. $Gene

Memory Stocks Are Collapsing! Why? If you can't articulate the reason, you shouldn't be investing in memory. 1. Memory is a commodity and demand is inelastic, meaning suppliers have pricing power in an undersupplied market and are screwed in an oversupplied market. Right now, we're undersupplied, but for how long? 2. Memory is defined by huge capex cycles and capex is going up. Don't want to invest because you want to keep your high margins? Someone else will. $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ , $SK hynix(SKHY)$ , and $Micron Technology(MU)$ are all upping capex because they have to. Eventually, that leads to oversupply, see #1. 3. China isn't watching idly.

The product is wrong, the strategy is off, and now Apple is suing. I intended to publish an article on AI’s enterprise incentives yesterday, but it’s been expanded into much more after the drama of the last 72 hours. Since Thursday, ChatGPT released an update without a chatbot, on Friday, Apple sued OpenAI, and over the weekend, Sam Altman took on Elon Musk on Twitter. But before we get to all of that and how it’ll impact investors, let’s start with the weekly update. OpenAI Gives Up On Consumers? OpenAI updated its Mac app last week, and it told us more than they thought about the near-term future of AI. ChatGPT, as we know it, is dead. Enterprise AI and AI for “work” is the future, even for the product that reached a billion consumers faster than any other. This is what ChatGPT looks lik

One of the things I’ve learned in 30+ years of investing is how important history is in analyzing companies. Understanding what has happened in the past, why it happened, and what the results were can inform what’s likely to work in the future. Sometimes, I learn from what companies got right. Sometimes, I learn from what companies got wrong. And that brings me to $Walt Disney(DIS)$ , a company whose history I covered in-depth in the Disney Spotlight. But I may have focused my history lesson on the wrong area. I focused on Disney’s entertainment history and the ebbs and flows of content creation, which come and go every decade or so. What I didn’t focus on was the history of Disney’s parks and how it was the parks that have always been the driver o

Memory prices are worth following. The clear trend is that the parabolic rise in prices ended in April/May for most of memory. Possible Q3 revenue is down sequentially for memory-makers. (depending on how much of sales is spot) The biggest risk in the market right now is multiple compression. Any blip in revenue growth or margins and these multiples can come down really fast. There's trillions in value riding on hyperscaler capex growing for the foreseeable future... $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

$Netflix(NFLX)$ has lost momentum, and here's an opportunity to get it back. Netflix has seemingly won the streaming battle…or has it? The company is in the #2 position behind $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.45% ) YouTube and has lost share since 2023, when it had 8% of TV time. Pull in total TV viewing, and Netflix falls to fifth place, even before Fox acquires Roku. So, why is this moment a golden opportunity for Netflix? I’ll get to that in a moment. Why Netflix Has an Opportunity Today OK, so I called this Netflix’s big moment. Why? Because the competition is distracted. The companies Netflix should fear most in streaming have priorities elsewhere. Let’s go through them one by one. YouTube (Alphabet) Alphabet

There was no press release or fanfare, but last week was more consequential to the future of autonomous driving than any week in recent memory. Waymo and $Uber(UBER)$ broke up. They’re still working together in Austin and Atlanta, but there’s now a clear business model split between the two. In a lot of ways, clarity is important. Waymo has a clearer path forward as it scales the business around the U.S. and globally. Uber knows it can’t rely on Waymo either, but it also puts pressure on the partners Uber is betting on. With new technologies, getting the business model right is more important than getting the technology right, so this moment is crucial. As an owner of both stocks, I’m not surprised by the move and happy to see the shift. I think i

If it feels like the market is moving faster than ever, it is! Information moves faster, but so do companies. AI was a pipedream five years ago, and now it’s driving trillions of dollars in value. If you’re looking for the next hot thing, faster markets can be a great thing. But as a long-term investor, it can bring confusion to decision-making. In these digital pages, I try to explain how I’m investing with a long-term focus using strategy and financial results, but sometimes that doesn’t translate to the performance I aim for because hype and short-term dynamics win the day. Today, I want to show how the speed of the market has changed over the past century and why keeping our heads is more important than ever. Everything Happens Faster Yes, the market is moving faster than ever, but put