To The Moon

The answer may shock you. One of the best quotes about valuation I’ve ever seen came from Sun Microsystems’ CEO after the dot-com crash. At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. Zero costs. Zero R&D. Zero taxes. Zero employees. What were you thinking? Sun Microsystems CEO Scott McNealy How much of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is trading for this crazy valuation today? The answer may shock you. I’ll get to that in a moment. Stock Valuations This post from Thierry was what had me digging into valuations today. It’s true that we’ve normalized 10x price-to-sales multiples, but as long-term investors, we shouldn’t because it’s extremely difficult to live up to that valuation.

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ raising $85 billion at peak hype is brilliant. They can now watch competitors scrounge to either dilute with equity or watch rising debt costs eat their business. I wouldn’t want to be a neocloud up against that beast. The Asymmetric Portfolio has been underperforming the market all year because I have no semi/memory/chip exposure outside of $GOOG. Frankly, I'm not buying the bubble. BUT now that we have a big selloff in bubbl-y stocks, I'm up 2% and the market is down 1%. Time will show the slow and steady approach of buying great companies at reasonable prices will win. FOMO has a bad connotation for a reason. On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day.

Shares of $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ surged this week on news that the company got a buyout offer from Peoples Incorporated, formerly known as IAC, the name I’m going to use here. The offer is for all of MGM for $48.30 per share. Here is the letter in full: Dear Members of the Board of Directors: People Incorporated (f/k/a IAC) began investing in MGM in 2020, based on our view that it represents a durable growth business not easily displaced by technology. We believe that MGM’s assets and businesses are not currently realizing their full potential in the public markets and that it will be difficult to correct this situation in MGM’s current form as a public company. Accordingly, we would like to work with MGM to agree on a transaction in whic

The Asymmetric Portfolio has been underperforming the market all year because I have no semi/memory/chip exposure outside of $Alphabet(GOOG)$ . Frankly, I'm not buying the bubble. BUT now that we have a big selloff in bubbl-y stocks, I'm up 2% and the market is down 1%. Time will show the slow and steady approach of buying great companies at reasonable prices will win. FOMO has a bad connotation for a reason. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance. 🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold! Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance. 🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lo

One of the things you develop after a few decades of investing is battle scars and a historical view of where we are today. History never repeats, but it often rhymes. As we’ve watched some of the absolutely crazy stock performance in 2026, I think it’s important to give some of that historical context to some parts of the market. I don’t know how this all ends, but I know how it’s ended before. I’ve seen these growth numbers. I’ve felt the investor confidence. And I’ve learned lessons along the way. The Market’s Rocket Ships Today, the market is bidding up all stocks related to AI, semiconductors, rockets, and dreams. Some of the stocks rising rapidly are seeing outstanding earnings, and we could debate if those are sustainable or not, but others are spending money at a growing clip to fu

The idea that we’ll use chatbots for everything we use apps and software for a decade from now is frankly absurd. Maybe chatbots will be more useful than they’ve ever been, but replacing all software with something like ChatGPT seems far-fetched to me. And in that sense, the SaaSpacolypse has been overblown. What will change is the business model behind the software we use. I think that’s undeniable, at this point. We’ve seen business model shifts in software, and they aren’t often smooth, but they can be moments of opportunity for investors. My childhood was spent putting floppy disks and then CDs into computers to install everything from games to antivirus software. Sometime in the late 2000s, that was replaced by downloadable software that ultimately led to the SaaS revolution. Instead

For those of us looking for signs of an AI bubble popping, there are no signs. Earnings coming out of chip, energy, and infrastructure stocks are incredible right now. As trillions of dollars are poured into the AI buildout, there seems to be no end to the exponential growth for the companies involved. It’s not just $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ that’s seeing growth and guiding for 🚀 demand. It’s $Intel(INTC)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ to name a few. Anyone who can make a chip or build some energy is going to the moon. And that exponential grow

In early 2021, inflation was something written about in history books. Unless you remembered the late 1970s, you had never really experienced inflation. At the end of 2021, inflation was a very real problem for real people, but the market thought it was a short-term event. Stocks rose nearly 30% during the year, and there was reason to be optimistic as jobs opened up and the pandemic subsided. But that euphoria only lasted so long. Inflation caused very real changes in how people spent money and prompted a major response from the Federal Reserve. When the market finally woke up, it wiped out all of 2021’s gains and, in the case of the Nasdaq, then some. Are we in the same place today? It may be worse. But more on that in a moment. What’s Up With Inflation? April inflation data — known as t

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ profits are soaring, there’s no doubt about that. And the market has gone higher with those profits. My question is around what’s sustainable and what isn’t in today’s economy. For example, can you guess what company this quote is about? [Company X] today posted robust earnings that roughly tripled expectations, a surge primarily caused by sales in its memory division. Yep, it’s Micron $Micron Technology(MU)$ ( ▼ 6.62% ). Now, guess what year this was written? I’ll give you a hint, it wasn’t 2026. It was 2000. September 26, 2000, to be exact. Micron is by its nature a cyclical stock. When times are good, profits surge and the money is reinvested in growing capacity, which inevitably lead