(Part 1 of 5) Economic Calendar - 26 Oct 2026
Week ahead: 26 October 2026 — Central banks, the Fed and Amazon’s AI spending
Economic Calendar (26Oct2026)
Five major central banks announce rates this week, alongside the UK Budget. The Fed decides before key US inflation reports. Europe has ended summer time; the US changes on 1 November. For Asian readers, US events arrive one hour earlier than usual.
1. Fed decision — Wednesday 28 October, 2:00 pm ET (Chair Warsh’s press conference: 2:30 pm). Rates are 3.75–4.00%, following September’s first increase in three years. A hold is expected: 94 of 100 Reuters-polled economists predict no change; CME futures suggest a 10% chance of an increase. No updated rate forecasts (“dot plot”) are due. Watch the response to September’s 3.7% consumer inflation and signals of a December increase, as Pimco and others expect. With midterms six days away, the message may be cautious. Reuters poll and pricing via Newsquawk week ahead, 23 October
2. US growth and inflation — Thursday 29 October, 8:30 am ET. Released after the Fed decision, these could shift December expectations. Third-quarter GDP growth is forecast at 3.0–3.2% annualised, versus 2.2% previously; the Atlanta Fed estimates 3.5%. AI investment is a key factor. September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is forecast at 0.5% monthly and 3.6–3.7% annually. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, is forecast at 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually, up from 3.0%. Producer prices rose 1.3% in a month, the largest increase since 2022. Faster core inflation could support a December rate increase. Weekly jobless claims arrive alongside: about 200,000 expected, versus 194,000 previously. MarketWatch calendar, Newsquawk
3. Other central banks and the UK Budget. The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday; markets suggest an 80% chance of a 0.25-percentage-point increase. Governor Macklem has warned about lasting energy-price pressures. New Zealand is expected to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.00%, though weak third-quarter consumer inflation makes this uncertain. The European Central Bank is expected to hold Thursday; watch its guidance and French government-bond yields. Japan decides Friday. Wednesday’s UK Autumn Budget could affect government bonds and banks. The theme is tighter policy: currencies may react to which bank most strongly supports higher rates. Newsquawk
Also watch: China’s Fifth Plenum opens Monday; Friday’s early October business surveys (PMIs) will be reviewed through the weekend. Israel’s Knesset election is Tuesday; Australian CPI is Wednesday. Newsquawk
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