(Part 3 of 5) - Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026)
Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Oct2026)
Technicals as of Friday 23 October close (Yahoo Finance data):
· Close 7,623.68 — down ~0.5% on the week, ~2.5% below the record 7,818.9 set earlier this month, still +11.4% year to date.
· Below the 50-day average (7,700) and 20-day exponential average (7,713), but above the 200-day average (7,291). Short-term strength has faded; the longer-term uptrend holds. The index is roughly 330 points above its 200-day average.
· MACD: −3.1, below its +12.6 signal line. This price-trend indicator suggests weakening momentum.
· Chaikin Money Flow: −0.02. This price-and-volume indicator suggests modest, not heavy, selling.
· Relative Strength Index (RSI): 42. Momentum is weak, but not yet “oversold”—a level suggesting unusually heavy selling.
· The long-term trend stays positive, but momentum and volume favour sellers short term.
Sentiment. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index fell from 46 to 18 on Friday 16 October, when the S&P fell 1.09% and the Nasdaq had its worst week since June. It was 31 mid-week and about 21 on Thursday 22 October; that finhacker.cz mirror reading needs CNN confirmation. The draft reports no extreme-greed days this year despite record highs. Investing News Network, 20 October, finhacker.cz
Weekly outlook: NEUTRAL, leaning cautious. Positives: the long-term uptrend holds, and sentiment is fearful just 2.5% below record highs. A quiet Fed decision and strong major-company earnings could lift prices as investors unwind protection. Risks: weaker momentum, prices below a falling 50-day average, Brent near US$110, reduced Hormuz shipping and inflation that could bring higher rates. Five central-bank decisions and three major earnings reports create unusual uncertainty. Focus on position sizes and Thursday’s data, rather than predicting outcomes.
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- Juliaaa11·10-26 16:33RSI 42 is not oversold yet, but MACD flipping negative with price under the 50 day says short term momentum is fading faster than it looks. I care more about whether 7291 keeps holdingLikeReport