To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026)

1. Major-company job cuts — American Express: 5%, about 3,500 employees; Barclays: 5,000 as AI improves efficiency; eBay: about 9%; Netflix: 6% globally, about 1,000 (WSJ via X user Zerohedge). Comcast plans significant cuts before its NBCUniversal spinoff (Bloomberg, 21 Oct). Perspective: cost savings are visible; extra AI revenue remains uncertain.

2. Morgan Stanley cuts its AMD chip forecast — Its 2026–2030 graphics-chip (GPU) forecast fell 43%, from 14.1 million to 8.0 million units: 5.9 million fewer (Morgan Stanley chart, 14 October). Perspective: weaker demand echoes the revenue and spending concerns in items 3 and 5.

3. AI revenue: expectations versus results — Rand Group Research compares combined OpenAI and Anthropic annual recurring revenue (ARR) projections of about US$2,000 billion with a reported path near US$577 billion. Perspective: separate forecasts from delivered revenue and check comparable measures.

4. Riskier data-centre debt — US financing issuance rose from US$36 billion in 2025 to US$80 billion in 2026 year to date. The below-investment-grade (“junk”) share rose from 24% to 46% (Forbes, 16 Oct, citing Barclays). Perspective: higher credit risk makes borrowing costs and debt renewal important.

5. AI spending barely grows — Ramp’s business data shows spending on AI tokens—units of usage—rose 1.05% in August and 0.22% in September (Ramp AI Index). Perspective: two nearly flat months warrant comparison with broader demand.

6. Gundlach cautious on AI — The investor who anticipated the 2007 housing downturn wants almost no AI-stock exposure (Eric Esposito). Perspective: his view reinforces item 4’s financing concerns, but is opinion, not proof of a downturn.

7. Dollar reserve share falls — Its global share is below 50% as gold’s share rises (IMF/Bloomberg data through 2025). Perspective: a long-term shift for gold demand and diversification, not a short-term trading signal.

8. Indonesian stocks at their lowest since 2020 — The Jakarta Composite reversed its 2021–2026 gains, returning towards 5,000 (Bloomberg). Perspective: regional equity investments carry risks.

9. US pending home sales at a record low — The index fell 7.3% monthly to its lowest recorded level (NAR via Bloomberg). Perspective: mortgage rates above 7% constrain housing, reinforcing inflation’s importance.

10. Cybersecurity risks — Reports covered an urgent CISA PHP patch alert, a new PyTorch supply-chain flaw, a critical GitLab flaw rated 10.0, a Node.js Brotli flaw allowing remote code execution, the Railway breach and Microsoft’s report on Storm-0940’s AI-assisted intrusions (X collage, 20–24 Oct). Perspective: security investment and stronger AI oversight remain important.

@TigerStars

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