The Fed is likely to pause in October, but investors should not mistake a pause for victory over inflation.
September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while job creation slowed to just 29,000. Inflation remains too high, yet aggressive tightening could further weaken employment and economic growth.
The real market-moving event may be Kevin Warsh’s press conference, not the rate decision itself. A hawkish message could push Treasury yields higher and pressure high-valuation stocks, particularly NVIDIA and Tesla. Conversely, a softer tone could extend the technology rally.
My view: The Fed will hold at 3.75%–4.00%, while keeping another hike on the table. I would focus less on predicting the next move and more on whether inflation and bond yields continue rising.
For investors, the biggest risk is paying premium valuations just before financial conditions tighten again.
@TigerEvents [你懂的]
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