For me, confirmation would require more than another earnings beat. I would want to see HBM demand remain supply-constrained, NAND and DRAM pricing continue improving, and data-centre demand broaden beyond a handful of hyperscalers.
SanDisk will be particularly useful for testing whether strength is spreading from AI memory into enterprise storage. Rising enterprise SSD volumes and prices, improving margins and strong free cash flow would strengthen the case.
The biggest signal would be capacity growth remaining disciplined despite high prices. Memory cycles often turn when strong pricing encourages excessive supply. If SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron can expand HBM while avoiding an uncontrolled increase in conventional memory capacity, the upcycle could have considerably further to run.
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